Good morning, friends. It’s still very much anyone’s guess what’s happening with the war and how different industries might be impacted in a prolonged war scenario, but glimpses of trouble are starting to show.

Dubai developers’ bonds are in distressed territory, but the risk of default? Pretty low, according to analysts we spoke to. We have more in this morning’s Big Story Today, below.

PLUS- Dubai and Abu Dhabi’s hedge fund hub status could be at risk, as chatter of relocation spreads, but the good news is: most are doubling down and claiming their confidence in the country hasn’t been shaken. Even Millennium has emphasized that it plans to keep its Dubai office, and that it “continues to see strong long-term potential for the city as a regional hub,” according to a note to staff seen by Bloomberg.

Both emirates spent the last few years drawing in dozens of hedge funds and asset managers with tax advantages, flexible and forward-looking regulations, and a strategic time zone bridging major markets. Now, that momentum is being tested as some staff grow antsy, with Millennium Management for example looking into potentially relocating people who want to leave.

Others like Hudson Bay Capital Management echoed this, telling the business information service they are confident the UAE “will remain a core destination for long‑term investment and talented professionals.” The firm recently set up an Abu Dhabi office, expanding its operations in Dubai. Meanwhile, Verition Fund Management, which manages more than USD 14 bn and has around 50 employees in Dubai, is looking to extend its Dubai office lease by another five years, and still plans to expand its presence in the Middle East.

When it comes to staff and their morale, it’s not exactly clear what’s driving people to leave, and a lot of it depends on where they come from, what they came here for, and how long they’ve been here. One concern that might be pushing some to look at alternatives: reports of salary reductions and layoffs starting to hit the job market, according to AGBI.

Another industry that’s been affected, albeit potentially temporarily? Entertainment. Dozens of events, including festivals with international headliners, have been delayed to later this fall, causing a massive backlog for the back half of the year and leaving a usually busy season for events quiet. The latest delay: Christina Aguilera’sconcert at Etihad Arena on Yas Island, initially scheduled for April, was rescheduled to Friday, 25 September.

One positive sign, though? Both UAE indices closed in the green for the second day in a row yesterday, with the DFM up 4.2% and the ADX up 2.7%, after a blip earlier in the week broke a similar winning streak. On the ADX, AED 1.6 bn was traded. Rapco Investment led the gains at 15.7%, followed by Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank with 8.5%, and PureHealth with 7.9%. United Foods, Dubai Investments, and Commercial Bank of Dubai led gains on the DFM.

And in more bad news…: Watch out for more stormy weather — today might be the peak. We’re in for a thunderstorm, damaging winds, and more thunder, building in Abu Dhabi and spreading from there. Expect a high of 30°C and a low of 23°C in Dubai, and a high of 35°C and a low of 23°C in Abu Dhabi.

Watch this space

M&A WATCH — Indian Reliance’s Jio in talks with investors on minor stake sales ahead of IPO: Indian giant Reliance’s digital businesses arm Jio Platforms — which counts the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (Adia) and Mubadala Investment as shareholders — has been in discussions with 13 foreign investors to sell down small fractions of existing equity ahead of its upcoming Mumbai IPO, Reuters reports, citing sources it says are familiar with the matter.

Each investor could divest roughly 8% of their holdings, which collectively would represent about 2.5% of Jio Platforms’ total shares in the offering, based on the newswire’s calculations. However, final sale percentages remain subject to change.

Currently, Mubadala holds 1.85% of the company, while Adia owns 1.16%. If Adia were to sell 8% of its 1.16% stake, it would still be left with a c.1.1% stake in the company, while an 8% sale of Mubadala’s 1.85% stake would leave it with about 1.7% of the company, according to our calculations.

The IPO is expected to follow an offer-for-sale structure, a common approach in India where existing shareholders sell their shares to the public without the company raising fresh capital. While final details on the numbers and valuations are yet to be determined, previous estimates valued Jio Platforms at around USD 180 bn, with the IPO potentially raising up to USD 4 bn.

OIL — Are Indian refiners using AED to skirt USD? Indian refiners are reportedly using the AED, among other alternative currencies to the USD, to buy Russian oil, Bloomberg reports, citing people it says are familiar with the matter. The move aims to hedge against shifts in US policy amid persistent regional turmoil and disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint. The US gave India a temporary 30-day waiver earlier this month to purchase Russian oil, but Russia is reportedly pushing India to find a longer-term solution via alternative currencies.

How are the wheels turning? India’s INR is being deposited into overseas bank accounts managed by Russian sellers before being converted into AED or China’s CNY. Singapore’s SGD and Hong Kong’s HKD are also reportedly under consideration, contingent on each bank’s risk appetite, sources told the business news service.

Is a shift to the CNY happening at a wider level? The war is casting doubt on the USD’s position as the de facto currency for trade, with Deutsche Bank flagging China’s CNY as a possible alternative.

COMMODITIES — Abu Dhabi is cracking down on price gouging: The Abu Dhabi Registration Authority (ADRA) is investigating reported cases of profiteering, as well as supply withholding by local businesses, according to a press release. Any commercial violations will be referred to authorities for judicial action, ADRA said, as it looks to support market stability as supply chains continue to be disrupted by the war.

Sound familiar? Earlier this month, the Economy Ministry intensified market oversight of unjustified price hikes. At that time, it had identified 567 violations and imposed AED 207.3k in financial penalties on traders, suppliers, and retail outlets found to be breaching consumer protection laws.

Data point

7th — that’s the UAE’s global ranking when it comes to prospects for career and economic progression. A Henley & Partners index placed the UAE in 7th place for windows for economic mobility and career progression in 2026, with a total score of 68%, putting it behind Austria but ahead of countries like Hong Kong and Portugal.

Who came out on top? Switzerland led the rankings with 86%, followed by Singapore at 81%, along with Australia, the UK, and the US. The UAE was the only country in our neck of the woods to make it into the top 15, boosted by growth hubs like Abu Dhabi and Dubai, Henley said in an accompanying press release.

PSA

Abu Dhabi unifies engineering licensing: The Department of Municipalities and Transport and ADGM have integrated their licensing systems, allowing engineering firms and professionals based in the freezone to operate across the emirate rather than through different regulatory frameworks, state news agency Wam reports.

The details: Now, ADGM-licensed companies can process applications through the Tamm platform to meet the same classification standards as mainland firms. Freezone firms and engineers will be able to work with mainland-registered ones.

ICYMI- Last November, the DMT overhauled the classification system for engineering offices and contracting companies, reducing the barriers to entry for higher-category licensing.

The big story abroad

Washington reportedly sent Iran a 15-point proposal to halt the war, the Associated Press reports, citing two Pakistani officials. The plan outlines sanctions relief for Iran, limits on its nuclear and missile programs, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and restrictions on its support for armed groups, an Egyptian official told the outlet.

Tehran’s response? Nothing yet. Both Iran and the US have so far had conflicting statements on the status — and even the existence — of ceasefire talks between them. US President Donald Trump had previously said the countries were in talks, while Iranian leaders denied the existence of these discussions.

REMEMBER- As we mentioned yesterday, there were reports of the US planning to send up to 3k soldiers to the region and possibly to Iranian territory.

Meanwhile, in the world of social media: Meta and Google were found liable for creating social media platforms harmful to teenagers. The plaintiff claimed that using YouTube and Instagram caused them anxiety, depression, and body dysmorphia. Social media companies now face USD bns of litigation risk as this case provides a roadmap for future claims regarding platform safety and minor well-being.

And on Wall Street: US investment bank Jefferies Financial Group failed to meet analysts’ estimates for 1Q 2026, despite seeing its net income rise 22% y-o-y. Its biggest losses were attributed to private credit mishaps related to Market Financial Solutions and First Brands Group. Despite the turmoil stemming from the war on Iran, Jefferies execs still expect robust M&A and IPO activity and dealmaking in 2026.

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Circle your calendar

The UAE will chair the 38th session of the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization’s Regional Conference for the Near East on Tuesday, 21 April in Al Ain, state news agency Wam reports. Over 200 representatives from the Near East and North Africa will meet to discuss strengthening supply chains, diversifying food sources, enhancing logistics, and utilizing financing and bioeconomy solutions to improve food security.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays, and news triggers.

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