Gulf states are reportedly urging Washington to “not stop short” in its military campaign against Iran, fearing repeat future attacks if Tehran’s offensive capabilities remain partially intact, Reuters reports. It remains unclear, however, what the Gulf’s involvement in the war could look like, or if it will get involved at all, as Iran continues to escalate its attacks on the region.

A response from the UAE was never off the table: Officials including Anwar Gargash, the president’s diplomatic advisor, have been warning for a while that they can “no longer sit idly by,” as the massive cost of defense and the risk of permanent deterrence erosion render a purely defensive reaction unsustainable.

REMEMBER- The cost disparity is serious. As we’ve reported, traditional air and missile defense systems work, but they cost a fortune compared to low-cost asymmetric swarms. Already, it’s been nearly three weeks of interceptions, each of which costs around USD 4 mn, Amandeep Ahuja, head of research at Confluence Consultants, tells EnterpriseAM.

On top of this, significant damage and disruption have been done to key pillars of GCC economies — from aviation and ports to financial services, and, of course, the Strait of Hormuz disruption.

Some involvement could be coming on that front: Gargash separately said that the UAE could be involved in a US-led effort to secure the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reports.

The dilemma remains: While Washington is pressing GCC countries to join the offensive, “we’re seeing that Gulf states are not at the moment suggesting any inclination towards joining the war because the economic and reputational costs of it would be too immense,” Ahuja said.

So what are the “red lines” for Gulf military retaliation?

What would push Gulf states over the edge? The thresholds that would prompt the GCC to get actively involved are “if very critical assets, like desalination plants, are under increased attack, or incidents involving civilian casualties, because Gulf states have positioned themselves as a safe haven,” Ahuja said.

IN CONTEXT- So far, eight casualties have been reported in the UAE as a result of the war, with the most recent reported in Abu Dhabi after a missile struck a Palestinian national in Al Bahyah.

Military options on the table

Gulf countries have several different military options, including granting the US full access to bases and airspace, Senior Fellow for Middle East Policy Hasan Alhasan wrote in a note for the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). While the UAE has continuously rejected any participation in the war, Saudi Arabia has acknowledged providing logistical support for US air patrols.

More active and direct retaliation is also on the table, Alhasan noted, adding that the GCC could deploy land-attack cruise missiles — or the UAE’s equivalent Black Shaheen — allowing for deep strikes into Iranian territory without entering its airspace. They also operate air platforms with combat radii ranging up to nearly 1.9k km.

Targeting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ economic, logistical, or energy infrastructure is another option, the report noted.

While these options exist, it is “unclear whether they possess sufficient inventories of weapons and munitions to sustain an extended military campaign against Iran,” Alhasan noted.

Regional leaders are increasingly diversifying their arsenals, supplementing US hardware with technology from Europe, South Korea, China, Turkey, and Russia, Nicholas Heras, senior analyst and program head for the State Resilience and Fragility Program at the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy, tells EnterpriseAM. He suggests, however, that the Gulf will keep purchasing top-tier US military hardware, rather than making a total shift away from the West.

Ground war scenario?

For now, GCC states will likely support through continued information sharing, but if the US were able to force the Iranian regime from its coast through a ground invasion, specialized UAE and Bahraini units could be deployed to occupy and secure Iran’s key energy facilities to prevent further regional threats, Heras said.

Ahuja maintains that the current priority of Gulf states remains domestic safety. “UAE authorities would much rather go down the route of diplomacy and negotiations and [...] there is no real inclination to be a part of this war,” she noted.

The future of US-Gulf relations

While at an economic level, the US-GCC relationship remains deep and mutually beneficial, the war could prompt strategic realignment among regional leaders when it comes to relationships with the US and Israel, Ahuja noted.

However, Heras argues that definitive US military success in Iran “would be a soothing balm for US-Gulf relations,” serving to reassure GCC states of Washington’s reliability.

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