Good morning, everyone. It was a relatively calm night until we started hearing blasts in Abu Dhabi in the early hours of the morning, which the Defense Ministry confirmed were the result of a “barrage of ballistic missiles launched from Iran.”

Attacks continued across the region on Monday, but there was limited damage on the ground here in the UAE despite energy infrastructure being targeted for the first time since the conflict began. (We have more on that in this morning’s War Watch, below.)

No *physical* damage doesn’t mean there hasn’t been damage: The biggest hit the GCC has taken has been to our “safe haven” status. That has government officials, business leaders, and investment professionals alike working overtime to help shore up the sense of security residents used to take for granted, as we write in this morning’s Big Story Today.

Most businesses we’re talking to are taking a wait-and-see approach, with relatively few opting to pull up stakes and run.

MEANWHILE- The macro forecasts have also started to pour in: JPMorgan has reportedly trimmed its 2026 non-oil growth forecasts for the GCC economies by an average of 0.3 percentage points following the expansion of the US-Iran conflict over the weekend. The UAE and Bahrain are expected to feel the sharpest pinch, with the bank cutting our forecast by 0.4% and the kingdom’s by 0.5%.

JPM warns of a risk of bigger revisions ahead: “Risks are elevated across multiple fronts and will depend heavily on the conflict’s outcomes,” JPMorgan analysts said.

ALSO- Fitch Ratings sounded a reassuring note on Middle Eastern sovereign credit ratings, saying they have sufficient headroom to weather a short-term regional conflict, provided there is no further escalation, according to a Fitch Ratings report.

The ratings agency cautioned, however, that material damage to GCC energy export infrastructure — see today’s War Watch — remains the primary risk to trigger a negative outlook. It expects the conflict to last less than a month due to dwindling Iranian military capacity and domestic US aversion to a prolonged conflict.

The agency is also not too concerned about the Strait of Hormuz’s closure for the duration of the conflict, saying that the Gulf’s pipelines will allow a big portion of production to pass through.

Fitch maintains — as we do — that the largest risk is to the region’s safe-haven status, which could see long-term reputational damage, especially if an exodus of expats takes place.

^^ We look at the likelihood of that happening, the general sentiment among people we’ve spoken to, and much more in this morning’s issue, below.

Watch this space

MARKET WATCH — The UAE’s capital markets face a high-stakes reopening tomorrow after a rare two-day suspension designed to blunt the impact of escalating regional tensions. The closure was designed to take the energy out of any “panic-driven selling” after the outbreak of war and allow for a “more orderly” return to trade, Vijay Valecha, CIO at Century Financial, tells EnterpriseAM.

Look for heavy trading at the opening bell: Hamza Dweik, head of MENA trading at Saxo Bank, notes that traders will start the day tomorrow with a significant backlog of orders, which typically signals a “volatile open” where a sharp move in the first hour would not be unusual.

Still, ours are very “institutional” markets, with long-only capital serving as anchors. That means floors are holding in much of the region, as Dweik pointed to Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul, where the TASI initially dropped more than 4% at the start of trading on Sunday before quickly paring its losses. That performance, Dweik argues, points to “selective risk reduction” and elevated uncertainty rather than a total breakdown in market functioning or “indiscriminate selling.”

For the DFM, which closed at 6.5k on Friday, Valecha identifies a “strong support band” between 6.28k and 6.3k. If the index stays in that range, he believes the longer-term breakout would remain intact, though a sustained move below 6.3k could invite additional technical selling toward a psychologically important support mark at 6k.

DEBT WATCH — Adnoc is reportedly shelving its planned USD 2 bndebut dim sumbond as the widening regional war rattles credit markets, Bloomberg reports, citing people it says are in the know. The energy giant, which had been sounding out investors since October and was due to market the notes this week, has now paused the process to avoid paying a war premium and secure better borrowing costs.

The move tracks with a broader wave of global issuers delaying their debt sales. Yesterday was the first time this year that not a single European or US company, sovereign, or “supranational” bond was in the market, the business information service reported separately.

CRISIS MANAGEMENT — Emirates Global Aluminum promised its customers that deliveries will arrive within weeks following ship-loading delays driven by the war, Bloomberg reports, citing a letter it has seen. The country’s top aluminum producer told customers that it “is taking every measure to mitigate this including opening additional ports and leveraging stocks already outside the UAE.”

IN CONTEXT- The price of aluminum leapt on the London Metal Exchange yesterday with investors worried about disruptions to shipping. The region accounts for 9% of global aluminum production.

Oil watch

Brent crude jumped 9% after Iran said it closed the Strait of Hormuz last night to settle at USD 79.45. “We view the pace of the rebound in traffic through Hormuz and the extent of Iranian retaliation as key for the oil price in the next few days,” UBS analysts wrote in a note.

Middle Eastern oil producers have roughly 25 days before they run out of storage space, Bloomberg reports, citing JPMorgan forecasts. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed beyond this window, producers may have to halt output entirely because there will be nowhere left to store the oil — which would leave them with a massive logistical and technical undertaking. Once wells are capped due to a lack of storage, restarting them is neither fast nor cheap.

Gulf producers have some 343 mn barrels of onshore crude storage, enough to hold roughly 22 days of stranded production if Hormuz remains closed. At sea, tankers could absorb an additional 50 mn barrels, extending operations by only a few days.

Data point

AED 428.2 bn — that’s Abu Dhabi’s non-oil foreign trade haul in 2025, up 39.9% y-o-y, according to Abu Dhabi Customs and Statistics Center data. The pace was set early, with 1H 2025 trade having already reached AED 195.4 bn, up 34.7% y-o-y.

December sealed the year: Trade hit AED 45.4 bn (+52%) in December, with exports (including re-exports) at AED 27.6 bn (+64%) and imports at AED 17.7 bn (+37%). Exports alone jumped 73% to AED 20.5 bn during the month, while re-exports rose 41% to AED 7.1 bn, delivering a AED 9.9 bn trade surplus. That’s narrowed from an AED 25.6 bn surplus in 2024.

Follow the flows: Switzerland led export markets in December with AED 11.9 bn in exports, ahead of India (which saw some AED 2.3 bn in exports) and Saudi Arabia (AED 1.9 bn). The emirate imported the most from the US (AED 2.8 bn), narrowly ahead of China (AED 2.6 bn). The export mix remains distinctly Abu Dhabi — with pearls, precious stones, and metals dominating at AED 14.1 bn.

Zooming out: At the federal level, the UAE’s non-oil foreign trade topped USD 1 tn (AED 3.8 tn) in 2025, up 26% y-o-y — reaching 2031 targets five years ahead of schedule. That trajectory is being underpinned by the CEPA drive, with 35 agreements signed and 14 already in force, laying the groundwork for the next phase of expansion.

WEATHER- It’s another cloudy, warm day, with temperatures peaking at 33°C in Dubai and 34°C in Abu Dhabi, before cooling to 22°C in the former and 20°C in the capital.

The big story abroad

The world’s front pages are all about the widening regional war for the third day running. Two updates are topping headlines this morning:

#1- US President Donald Trump vowed to do “whatever it takes” in Iran, saying that US-Israeli attacks on the country could go on for over a month.

#2- Iran officially closed the Strait of Hormuz, threatening to fire at any ship trying to pass through — effectively halting 20% of the world’s oil supply.

THE HOMETOWN ANGLE- We dive into what this all means for us at home in the news well, below.

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