Good morning, friends. Today’s big story is the Central Bank of the UAE’s first interest rate decision of the year, following — as usual — in the footsteps of the US Federal Reserve.

The CBUAE chose to hold interest rates steady, keeping the base rate applicable to the Overnight Deposit Facility at 3.65%, according to a statement (pdf). The interest rate applicable to borrowing short-term liquidity was also kept steady at 50 basis points above the base rate.

The other major theme of today’s issue is real estate, as we unpack DIFC’s AED 100 bn expansion and how it will impact the market over the next few years. The consensus among experts: Prices might not be affected much in the near-term, but pressures could ease in surrounding areas like Business Bay.

Meanwhile, in Abu Dhabi, the property market is growing faster than ever, with both the office and residential segments set for double-digit growth.

Watch this space

BUSINESS — Al Habtoor officially exits Lebanon: UAE-based Al Habtoor Group formally announced the closure of its operations in Lebanon, citing continued instability, hostile campaigns, and ongoing disputes with the Lebanese government, according to a statement on Facebook. The decision affects all hotels and operations in the country and includes staff layoffs. The group cited a government failure to provide the necessary stability and safeguards for its operations.

The group said it will continue to pursue action under international legislative frameworks — a move it signaled to earlier this week, when a statement said Al Habtoor plans to sue Lebanese authorities over USD 1.7 bn in losses tied to blocked access to deposited funds and the absence of formal capital control laws. A previously planned large investment was contingent on forming a “strong and independent” government, conditions the group said were unmet, and it also scrapped or shelved other projects last year.

BUSINESS — Visa split its Middle East operations into two distinct clusters to comply with Saudi Arabia’s regional HQ rules, Semafor reports. The new Riyadh-based office will now govern Saudi, Bahrain, and Oman, while Dubai remains a hub for the UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar, both falling under Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East, and Africa.

The rise of the dual hub? The RHQ policy was designed to shift regional headquarters away from Dubai and towards the Kingdom. Yet, some companies appear to be adopting a dual-hub approach — maintaining operations in both locations rather than relocating — taking on higher overheads, as functions are duplicated across two headquarters instead of being consolidated, in exchange for maintaining a presence in both markets.

Background: Visa opened its regional headquarters in Riyadh’s King Abdullah Financial District in 2024 and last month appointed Ali Bailoun as group country manager to lead the region. The company is among more than 700 multinationals that have relocated to comply with Saudi Arabia’s regional headquarters programme, which requires firms to establish a local HQ to be eligible for government contracts.

ALSO- Goldman Sachs has formed a senior executive team to strengthen its Middle East presence, targeting sovereign wealth funds and asset management to deepen ties with regional investors and governments, Asharq Business reports, citing people familiar with the matter. The team comprises Anthony Gutman, co-CEO of Goldman Sachs International; Zaid Khaldi, CEO for MENA; Mark Nachman, global head of asset and wealth management; and Jared Cohen, head of global affairs.

ENERGY — Adnoc and Taqa will jointly develop and supply grid connection, steam production, process cooling, and water and wastewater systems for the Ta’ziz Industrial Chemicals zone under a 27-year utilities purchase agreement covering both plant construction and utility offtake, according to a press release. Ta’ziz — an Adnoc-ADQ JV — will set up and own a service management company as the sole offtaker for utilities across the zone’s chemicals and transition-fuels projects.

Background: The Ta’ziz industrial ecosystem is a chemicals complex and transition fuels site in Al Ruwais Industrial City. It is expected to contribute some AED 183 bn to the economy, with 4.7 mtpa of targeted capacity across chemicals and transition-fuel products such as methanol, low-carbon ammonia, polyvinyl chloride, ethylene dichloride, vinyl chloride monomer, and caustic soda.

INVESTMENT — RAK looks east for capital: Ras Al Khaimah is stepping up efforts to attract investors from China and Hong Kong, and they’re showing a particular interest in its growth across real estate, renewables, and digital infrastructure, Marjan CEO Abdulla Al Abdouli told Reuters.

Why now: RAK is scaling fast, targeting 3.5 mn tourists a year by 2030, up from about 1.3 mn in 2024. The pipeline is anchored by Wynn Resorts’ USD 3.9 bn Marjan integrated resort, due to open in 1Q 2027.

What’s on the table: Demand is strongest in hotels, residential, and mixed-use projects, with family offices also in focus, he said. Asian investors are eyeing adjacent sectors including healthcare, education, entertainment, and cultural assets — areas where family offices typically deploy longer-term capital, Al Abdouli added.

In execution already: RAK Properties plans to open a sales and marketing office in China, CEO Sameh Muhtadi said. On the ground, Chinese contractors including China State Construction Engineering and China Railway are already involved in Al Marjan Island developments.

Financial cooperation is also deepening: The UAE’s Capital Market Authority has signed a cooperation MoU with Hong Kong’s Securities and Futures Commission covering digital assets and cross-border supervision, state news agency Wam reports. The move adds to an earlier mutual funds recognition framework.

CRYPTO — ADGM is looking to formally define how crypto mining can operate in and from the freezone, publishing a draft framework that brings the activity under the Registration Authority’s commercial licensing remit, according to a consultation paper (pdf) that is open for feedback until 20 March. Enforcement powers would range from remediation directions and inspections to license suspension or revocation.

Besides requiring crypto miners to get commercial licenses from the Registration Authority, specifying mechanisms for proof-of-work, proof-of-stake, and other future technologies, and establishing operational and security standards, it will also recognize lawfully-mined digital assets as property under ADGM law. They will therefore be subject to the usual ADGM property laws including on taxation, rights, and commercial transactions.

The guidelines also include:

  • Setting governance and transparency expectations, including disclosure of corporate structure, ultimate beneficial owners, proof of operating within licensed scope, and, on request, the blockchain wallets and smart contracts controlled by the entity;
  • Adopting risk-based supervision, with higher scrutiny for large-scale operations or miners providing services to third parties (this includes obligations like record-keeping, regular reporting, and internal risk reviews);
  • Increased oversight for international activity, requiring ADGM-registered headquarters to disclose overseas mining sites and activity details, conduct jurisdictional risk assessments, apply ADGM governance standards across their external sites, and report material overseas compliance breaches.

AVIATION — More talent for Emirates: Dubai’s flagship carrier is planning to hire around 20k employees over the next five years as it continues to expand its aircraft portfolio and destinations, Deputy President and Chief Operations Officer Adel Al Redha told Khaleej Times. The airline is set on recruiting cabin crew, pilots, engineers, technicians, and airport staff — adding to the 124k personnel it employed at the end of FY 2024-25.

Happening today

President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan begins a visit to Russia today, where he is scheduled to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin, Wam reports. The two are expected to discuss strengthening trade, investment, and energy cooperation. Russia and the UAE previously inked a trade in services and investment agreement last summer. The talks will also address regional and international issues, and come as Abu Dhabi is set to host a second session of trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the US.

Gulfood is underway, and runs until this Friday — but this time it’s taking place in two different venues: Dubai World Trade Center and Dubai Exhibition Center in Expo City. The massive F&B event will gather food distributors, producers, government officials, and investors and startups alike under, now, two roofs.

Abu Dhabi is hosting the International Bar Association’s Annual Arbitration Day Conference today and tomorrow at the Rosewood Abu Dhabi. Law professionals and international industry players will meet for panel discussions on trends in the arbitration practice globally.

Plus: The World Customs Organization’s Technology Conference is on from today to Friday at the Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

Fellow photo nerds: this year’s Xposure, the global celebration of visual storytelling, is underway until 4 February. This year’s edition features a who’s who of talented photographers — including our friend Romany Hafez, whose haunting analog work explores memory, presence, and sacred spaces. Romany will be giving a talk on Saturday, 31 January headlined Between Memory and Light. Don’t miss it if you love black-and-white photography as much as we do.

⛅WEATHER- Our lucky streak of good weather continues, with temperatures peaking at 26°C today in Dubai and 27°C in Abu Dhabi today. Dubai will see an overnight low of 17°C, while Abu Dhabi will see a low of 16°C.

The big story abroad

Trump is doubling down on threats to strike Iran, saying on Tuesday that another “armada” is heading toward the country and hoping that Tehran will “make a deal” with Washington before an attack begins. The threats sent Brent and US crude up roughly 1% to a four-month high, with oil prices also propped up by a weakening USD.

Big Tech earnings also dominated the news, with Meta, Microsoft, and Tesla all beating netincome and revenue expectations. Meta reported a stronger forecast for first-quarter revenue, pushing its shares up 10% in extended trading, while Microsoft fell over 6% on disappointing cloud growth. Meanwhile, Tesla’s plans to spend USD 20 bn this year to build AI capabilities sent the stock up some 1% despite the company logging its first annual decline in revenue last year.

ALSO- The UK is seeking a reset with China amid tensions with the US, with Prime Minister Keir Starmer to be joined by execs from top banks and manufacturers when he lands in China today.

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