Fitch Solutions’ research unit BMI has maintained its 2026 growth outlook for the UAE, projecting real GDP to expand by 5.6% — a surge not witnessed since 2022. This follows an estimated 5.2% growth in 2025, positioning the Emirates as one of the GCC’s leading growth engines this year, Fitch Solutions MENA Country Risk Senior Analyst Mariette Kas-Hanna said in a recent webinar attended by EnterpriseAM.

BMI’s outlook remains more bullish than others, with the IMF projecting 2026 growth to come in at 5.0% and the World Bank expecting 4.8% growth. That’s more or less in line with the Central Bank of the UAE, which has penciled in 5.2% growth.

Growth drivers: Key factors include the phased unwinding of Opec+ production cuts and a surge in non-oil exports as the country expands its global trade network through trade and economic partnership agreements.The UAE’s expansionary fiscal policy is also set to increase public investment, while government initiatives continue to improve its attractiveness to foreign capital.

The GCC at large

The GCC is shaking off its sluggishness to enter a high-growth cycle, with its aggregate real GDP forecast to hit 4.8% in 2026, up from a projected 4.2% in 2025, as the region moves past Opec+ production curbs and doubles down on diversification.

As for inflation and monetary policy: Inflation is projected at a negligible 1.7% for the region, up from an anticipated 1.2% in 2025, driven by price pressures in non-oil commodities. GCC central banks are expected to follow the US Federal Reserve with 50 bps rate cuts in 2026, with Kuwait being the exception due to its peg to a distinct currency basket.

Downside risks: The GCC’s ability to export oil would be severely undermined should regional tensions disrupt shipping routes, potentially offsetting any gains from higher oil prices. A sharper-than-expected drop in oil prices — below BMI’s baseline of USD 67 / bbl — or a worsening global macro environment could also temper the current growth trajectory.

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