Good morning, friends, and happy hump day. The big theme of the day is trade, with not one, but two trade agreements inked with the Philippines and Nigeria yesterday, trade talks with Canada set to kick off soon, and Foreign Trade Minister Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi saying the UAE is “evaluating” the potential impacts of a 25% tariff on the UAE due to its trade relations with Iran.

We also have more details on the UAE’s projects market last year, which saw a decline but remains the GCC’s largest projects market, with a massive USD 491.2 bn pipeline.

PLUS- A new Islamic digital banking venture, founded by Botim Founder Abdallah Abu Sheikh, just raised the region’s largest seed round yet, with a USD 250 mn investment led by private equity outfit BlueFive Capital.

Happening today

Turkish Foreign Affairs Minister Hakan Fidan is heading for the UAE today, according to a statement. The agenda for the visit has not been made public, but Turkey has reportedly been stepping up diplomacy with Iran as deadly protests continue, along with the US ambassador to Turkey, in recent days.

Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week kicked off earlier this week and runs until Thursday, 15 January at the Adnec Center, bringing together global leaders to discuss sustainability action across interconnected systems. Heads of state including the Philippines’ Ferdinand Marcos Jr, South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa, and Nigeria’s Bola Tinubu are among those expected to attend.

The week’s program includes:

Other conferences happening this week:

WEATHER- The mercury is set to peak at 26°C in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, with Dubai seeing an overnight low of 18°C, and the capital seeing a low of 15°C.

Watch this space

TRADE — The UAE (and China) could have a lot to lose from US President Donald Trump’s threats for a 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran. The UAE is Iran’s second biggest trading partner, with some USD 16.1 bn in trade taking place between the two countries in 2024, Bloomberg reports, citing IMF data. It’s also a major re-export hub for Iran, with the Economy and Tourism Ministry data(pdf) showing that UAE-Iran non-oil trade reached USD 6.6 bn in 2024. Trump’s claimed the tariff would “ take effect immediately,” though he has yet to clarify which countries (and goods) would be affected.

The UAE has so far gotten away almost scot-free from Trump’s tariff wars last year, with just a 10% tariff slapped on most UAE imports, though it’s subject to the 25% tariff on the US’ steel imports from all countries.

Foreign Trade Minister Thani Bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi said the government is “evaluating” the possible impacts of the 25% tariff. “We have to evaluate what are the consequences of disturbing the supply of many of the products and commodities that come from Iran,” Gulf News quotes Al Zeyoudi as saying at Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week.

In brighter trade news, the UAE and Canada are set to start talks over a trade agreement next month, Canadian Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu told Reuters. This comes as the two countries have strengthened relations recently, with the UAE set to pour some USD 50 bn in investments in the country.

Canada is particularly interested in attracting investments in liquefied natural gas, and Adnoc has been eyeing Canadian natural gas projects, Sidhu said.

MACRO — The World Bank has reaffirmed its forecast for the UAE’s GDP growth this year at 5%, while its forecast for 2027 was revised marginally upwards to 5.1%, in its latest Global Economic Prospects report (pdf). We’ll dive into the broader forecast for the region and what could be behind the forecast in tomorrow’s issue.

PORTS — DP World’s Berbera Port operations remain stable: Dubai’s DP World confirmed today in a statement to Reuters that its operations at Somaliland’s Berbera Port are unaffected by Somalia’s recent decision to break ties with the UAE. Somaliland also refuted in a statement Somalia’s claims of authority over agreements related to Berbera Port — reaffirming the breakaway region’s sovereign hold over the port. The logistics giant holds a 65% stake in the port.

REMEMBER- Somalia’s government said yesterday it was annulling all of its contracts with the UAE for ports, defense, and security, over what its Council of Ministers said were “actions undermining [its] national security.”

ENERGY — IHC is still in the running for Lukoil’s assets: Abu Dhabi’s International Holding Company (IHC), private equity firm Carlyle, and a consortium including Chevron and Quantum Capital Group are competing for the global assets of Russian oil firm Lukoil, as a US deadline to divest the portfolio to avoid further sanctions expires this week, sources told Reuters.

Background: The US imposed sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft last October and gave Lukoil until 17 January to sell its international assets, valued at around USD 22 bn. Its portfolio spans oilfields in Iraq, Azerbaijan, and Kazakhstan, alongside refineries and fuel retail networks in Europe and the US. Sanctions, banking constraints, and Iraq’s nationalization of the West Qurna 2 oilfield have all disrupted Lukoil’s operations recently.

This isn’t the first news of IHC interest. The holding company was reportedly interested in snapping up the assets at the end of last year, after an agreement from Lukoil to sell it to Swiss commodity trader Gunvor fell through following US fears of its ties to Russia. Around the same time, Adnoc was also reported to be among several companies assessing acquiring parts of the portfolio, with a particular focus on its natural gas operations in Uzbekistan.

Where we’re at: Lukoil has reportedly been in talks with investors since November but a deadline could be extended if an agreement isn’t reached before Saturday, and the US’ options include handing out individual licenses to buyers as well, sources added.

RENEWABLES — Masdar’s clean energy capacity reaches 65 GW: Abu Dhabi-backed Masdar’s global clean energy capacity has hit 65 GW, more than halfway to the 100 GW target earmarked for the end of the decade, Chairman Sultan Al Jaber said at Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week on Tuesday. Masdar’s capacity jumped 27.5% y-o-y, up from 51 GW by the end of 2024.

Why it matters: Masdar has moved well beyond its early focus on domestic solar projects; it is buying regulated grids and entire operating platforms. The 14 GW added in the last year alone wasn’t driven by scattered bits, but by a massive capital deployment into assets like Greece’s Terna Energy and its partnership with Iberdrola on the EUR 5.2 bn East Anglia Three offshore wind farm.

BANKING — Commercial Bank International (CBI) is closing down its Islamic window after receiving approval from the Central Bank of the UAE’s Higher Shariah Authority to wind down the unit, according to an ADX disclosure (pdf). CBI said the closure will be implemented gradually, with no material impact on operations or customers. A reason for the closure wasn’t stated.

PSA

DXB’s parking bottlenecks are about to ease with Salik’s E-Wallet payment system: Visitors to DXB will be able to use Salik’s E-Wallet system to pay for parking at the airport’s car parks starting 22 January, following an agreement between Dubai Airports and the Dubai toll operator, according to a DFM disclosure (pdf). The two inked a 10-year partnership for the airport, which welcomed 24.2 mn passengers in 3Q 2025.

Where exactly? The digital payment solution will be rolled out across 7.4k parking spaces at Terminals 1, 2, 3, and Cargo Mega Terminal.

The big story abroad

Two big business stories are making the rounds this morning: US-based luxury retailer Saks plans to file for bankruptcy, but is finalizing a USD 1.75 bn financing agreement that would keep its stores open. Plus: Netflix is considering turning its takeover bid for Warner Bros into an all-cash offer, a move that would help solidify it as the stronger suitor after Paramount Skydance (along with Gulf investors and Larry Ellison) made an all-cash, USD 108.4 bn hostile takeover bid for the company.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has ramped up his threats of US interference in Iran, telling protesters that “help is on its way” on Truth Social. White House officials have been meeting to discuss the situation in Iran, where the death toll has reached 2k, according to the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency.

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