UAE corporates head into heavy refinancing cycle through 2030

UAE corporates face USD 136.2 bn in debt maturities through 2030, accounting for the bulk of the country’s USD 171.8 bn maturity wall over the next five years. Of that total, USD 18.5 bn are due next year, according to Kamco Invest’s GCC Fixed Income Market Update (pdf).

Local banks are set to carry the heaviest load over the period, with USD 80.9 bn-worth of debt maturing, followed by real estate firms with USD 11.2 bn.

Anticipated rate cuts are likely to push borrowers to lock in lower rates for their refinancing needs. Kamco forecasts that GCC central banks will continue to slash rates in line with the US Fed due to pegged currencies, projecting a general 50 bps cut across the region. Specific data for the UAE suggests an expected cut of 57 bps in 2026, which would bring the rate down to 3.08% by December 2026. The UAE base rate was cut by 75 bps in 2025, ending the year at 3.65%. The report notes minimal pressure on currency pegs and expects monetary policies to remain largely stable and supportive of the region’s sizable projects market.

Local issuers tapped the primary debt market for around USD 64.9 bn in 2025, marking a 2.5% y-o-y increase from USD 63.4 bn 2024 — including USD 3.3 bn in perpetual instruments. They were also the region’s most active green debt issuers, raising USD 5.6 bn in green instruments, up 47.4% y-o-y.

Zooming out

The UAE is second only to Saudi Arabia in total maturities. The Kingdom faces USD 174.5 bn in sovereign-led maturities over the next five years, with the government accounting for USD 106.4 bn as it finances deficits spending tied to megaprojects — unlike the UAE, where rollover risk sits largely with corporates.

The GCC faces a USD 508.1 bn maturity through 2030, of which USD 85.4 bn is due next year. Refinancing demand could generate roughly USD 85.4 bn in new issuance in 2026.

Total GCC issuance came in at USD 206.6 bn in 2025 — a year marked by higher corporate participation (USD 128.6 bn) and lower government debt (USD 77.9 bn). While the region’s sukuk issuance faltered, down 19.1% y-o-y to USD 81.4 bn, the bond market hit its highest level on record, up 17.9% to USD 125.2 bn.

Financial services carry the region’s largest sector risk, with USD 210.4 bn due, representing 79.9% of all corporate maturities through 2030. Meanwhile, energy has USD 21.8 bn in maturities (8.3% of corporate total), while utilities and industrials are exposed to USD 19 bn in combined maturities.