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Transport price inflation inched up for the second straight month in November, albeit at a slower pace of only 0.23% y-o-y.
REMEMBER – The Fuel Pricing Committee reduced petrol and diesel prices by up to 5.6% in November, before raising them again in December by up to 6.7%.
Inflation is still pressured by housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels — the largest component of the basket, though the pace of the increase has slowed slightly to 5.29%, the lowest level in 32 months. “Housing & utilities prices have accelerated faster than all other categories,” Emirates NBD said in a research note (pdf). “Over January to November it has averaged 6.5% growth, more than twice as fast as the headline figure as population growth and investment fueled demand,” it added.
On a monthly basis, consumer prices registered a negative reading for the first time since last May, falling by 0.17% in November, retreating from October’s largest monthly increase this year of 0.64%, according to the Statistics Center’s monthly inflation report (pdf).
This decline was driven by transportation costs turning to a decline of 1.93% m-o-m, food and non-alcoholic beverage prices falling by 0.21% m-o-m, and clothing and footwear prices falling 2.31%. The recreation, sport, and culture sector also deepened its decline by 3.42%. Meanwhile, the pace of increase in the housing, water, electricity, gas, and fuel category slowed to 0.37% m-o-m.
Inflation remains under control, analysts say: “Following the recent US Federal Reserve rate cut, Dubai’s inflation in November remains moderate and well-managed,” banking and economic expert Amjad Naser told EnterpriseAM. “Compared to global markets still grappling with high inflation, Dubai benefits from both structural demand and a favorable interest rate environment, reinforcing its position as a stable and attractive hub for investment,” according to Naser.
Looking ahead: Emirates NBD maintained its forecast for the average headline inflation rate for the entire year at 2.6%, before slightly falling to 2.5% during 2026.
