Good morning, lovely people, and welcome to the final month of the year. We hope you enjoyed the long weekend, whether you spent it at home with your family or overseas.

We have a busy issue for you to kickstart this short workweek, with plenty of macro updates, fresh tax law amendments, and a healthy dose of capital markets news, as per usual.

The Economy Ministry rang in the National Day with GDP growth figures for 1H 2025, showing 4.2% growth across the UAE during the period, driven mostly by a booming non-oil sector. Meanwhile, Abu Dhabi’s inflation rose to its highest since 2023 in October, and the Finance Ministry introduced a fresh batch of tax procedures law amendments.

ALSO- Amanat’s education arm Almasar Education rang the bell on Tadawul, gaining 18.4%, while BlueFive Capital submitted a non-binding offer to acquire a stake in Saudi-listed Gulf General Cooperative Ins. Without further ado, let’s dive in.

🌁WEATHER- Some fog ahead? The National Center of Meteorology expects foggy conditions throughout this morning, as the mercury peaks at 29°C in Dubai and 28°C in Abu Dhabi, before cooling to a low of 20°C in the former and 19°C in the capital.

DATA POINT-

UAE equities closed out November down, reversing gains made in October amid a sharp pullback across GCC markets, which saw equities across the bloc fall the most in three years, according to a Kamco Invest report (pdf). This came amid broader pressure on emerging market indices amid fears of an AI bubble, and as oil prices staged a decline, the report noted.

The MSCI GCC index fell 6.9% during the month, its biggest drop in more than three years. Only Muscat ended the month up (1.7%), with total trading turnover across Gulf exchanges sliding 35% m-o-m to USD 45.3 bn, down from USD 69.5 bn in October, according to calculations by CNBC Arabia (watch: runtime 3.03).

ADX’s benchmark index lost USD 33 bn in market cap (-3.5%) during the month, with most of the sectors registering losses, led by real estate (-8.8%), telecoms (-7.5%), and financials (-2.2%). Phoenix Group and Presight were among the biggest drags.

Meanwhile, DFM registered the second biggest dip among GCC markets, down 3.7%, with financials also dragging the index (-5.9%) and real estate (-3.8%) registering a slump.

Tadawul’s TASI was the biggest drag, shedding USD 178 bn in market cap (-9%) in a single month as the index reeled from pressure on heavyweights — including an USD 88 bn drop in Aramco’s valuation. Kuwait also posted its worst monthly performance in 18 months.

Abu Dhabi captured 16% of regional liquidity, while Dubai accounted for 8%, well below the 51% of Saudi Arabia. Still, the Gulf-wide contraction wiped roughly USD 250 bn in market value in November, taking the region’s combined market cap down to about USD 3.89 tn, a 6% m-o-m drop.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- UAE joins US-led AI supply chain push: The UAE will be among several countries attending a meeting hosted by the US at the White House on 12 December to discuss boosting critical mineral and semiconductor supply chains, Bloomberg reports, citing US economic affairs state undersecretary Jacob Helberg.

On the agenda: The US is looking to secure agreements in sectors like advanced semiconductor manufacturing, critical minerals, AI infrastructure, energy, and logistics. Other countries attending include Japan, South Korea, Singapore, the Netherlands, the UK, Israel, and Australia — all of whom either possess critical mineral resources or hosting big semiconductor firms.

The summit comes as the US looks to reduce allied nations’ reliance on China in these key areas, especially in AI, Helberg said. The initiative builds on similar efforts from previous administrations to counter Chinese dominance in the sector — with limited success given that over 90% of rare earth resources are located in China.

So far in US-UAE cooperation: The US recently gave the green light to export 35k Nvidia chips to state AI giant G42, after a broader ruling allowed the UAE to use USD bns worth of Nvidia chips in US-linked data infrastructure. The move comes alongside Emirati plans to invest in US AI infrastructure, as well as partnerships between G42 and US tech giants, including Nvidia, to develop a 5 GW UAE-US AI campus in Abu Dhabi — the first deployment under the US’ wider USD 500 bn Stargate initiative.

#2- Mubadala Energy signed a heads of agreement with PLN Energi Primer Indonesia to supply gas from its Andaman Sea fields, laying the groundwork to channel output toward the archipelago’s North Sumatra and Aceh, Wam reports. The agreement covers potential deliveries from the Tangkulo field, which holds an estimated 2 tcf of gas in place.

IN CONTEXT- Mubadala reported a gas discovery at its Tangkulo-1 exploration well in South Andaman in May 2024 and is targeting a final investment decision in June 2026, with a development plan slated for 4Q this year and first gas expected in 4Q 2028. This marks the company’s second deepwater find in South Andaman, following a discovery at the Layaran-1 well in December in 2023. The company inked an agreement with Indonesia’s Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) last year to explore power generation from the South Andaman blocks to address Indonesia’s energy demand and for infrastructure development, and agreed to provide 200 mn standard cubic feet per day (mcf/d) of gas to Indonesian state fertilizer producer Pupuk Indonesia in May.

#3- Top Ships eyes USD 200 mn Dubai portfolio: Greece-based international tanker operator Top Ships is weighing a move into Dubai real estate, signing a letter of intent to potentially acquire a portfolio worth more than USD 200 mn from a company affiliated with CEO Evangelos Pistiolis, according to a press release. The firm said Dubai’s property market is “one of the world’s most attractive.”

The option terms: Top Ships will receive an exclusive right to buy all or part of the portfolio — which includes residential assets — at a 10% reduction to fair market value, based on two independent valuations. The company will make an advance payment of USD 23.5 mn before 31 December 2025, credited against the purchase price if it proceeds or otherwise refunded. A 90-day option window, which will begin once this payment is made, will include due diligence procedures.

#4- Abu Dhabi has approved a AED 4 bn housing benefits package, targeting 3.3k citizens, according to Abu Dhabi Media Office. The package — its third this year — includes AED 2.3 bn in housing loans for 1.8k citizens; AED 1.5 bn in housing grants and ready-built homes; loan-repayment exemptions for limited-income senior citizens, retirees, and families of the deceased; and housing-loan reductions totaling AED 208 mn.

Total disbursements now stand at AED 15.4 bn for 2025, benefiting 10.7k citizens. The tally includes AED 11.8 bn in housing loans for 7.8k beneficiaries and AED 3.1 bn in residential land and ready-home grants for 2.4k people. Repayment exemptions and reductions under the Emirati Family Growth program total AED 514.8 mn for 478 citizens.

#5- Abu Dhabi’s Department of Energy rolled out a long-term Integrated Water Sector Strategy, laying out the emirate’s plans to secure and diversify water resources, preserve groundwater, and shore up supply reliability, according to Abu Dhabi Media Office. The roadmap outlines targets to cut total water production costs, reduce network losses by 40% by 2035, and lift demand efficiency by 32% by 2030. The plan also focuses on tightening consumption, upgrading networks, and deploying AI to improve operational performance.

Five core programs anchor the strategy: Expanding and diversifying agriculture water sources; overhauling networks in 28 agricultural areas; boosting residential and agricultural consumption efficiency; installing monitoring and control systems across distribution networks; and rolling out loss-reduction, smart-infrastructure, and consumption-management initiatives. The department will phase these projects over a 10-year period.

Abu Dhabi is also targeting a more balanced mix of water sources through ramped-up rainwater harvesting — with a goal of capturing 100 mcm a year — and wider use of recycled water. Infrastructure upgrades will be managed through the AD.WE platform, where AI tools will support system optimization.

PSAs-

#1- You’ll be paying more at the pump next month: The Fuel Price Committee has set December’s fuel prices, with all categories edging up from November’s rates, according to a post on X.

The breakdown per liter:

  • Super 98 will cost AED 2.70, up from AED 2.63 (+2.7%);
  • Special 95 is AED 2.58, up from AED 2.51 (+2.8%);
  • E-Plus 91 is AED 2.51, up from AED 2.44 (+2.9%);
  • Diesel will be AED 2.85, up from AED 2.67 (+6.7%).

#2- Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (Dewa) has launched two digital initiatives to facilitate business launch procedures for contractors, consultants, and investors, according to a press release. The Sun Power initiative provides an entirely digital process to connect solar photovoltaic systems to Dewa’s electricity grid under the Shams Dubai program, while Easy Connect unifies electricity and water service requests under a single digital platform.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- Vice President and Chairman of the Presidential Court Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan is leading a delegation to the GCC Summit in Bahrain today, state news agency Wam reports. The summit typically aims to boost economic cooperation across the bloc and advance initiatives and projects such as the GCC Railway and the GCC Common market.

#2- Sotheby’s inaugural Abu Dhabi Collectors’ Week kicked off yesterday and runs until Friday, 5 November at the St Regis Saadiyat Island Resort in Abu Dhabi. In partnership with ADIO, the flagship event features auctions, exhibitions, masterclasses, and panel discussions across luxury sectors including high jewelry, rare watches, collector cars, fine art, and real estate.

#3- The Binance Blockchain Week is taking place today and continues until tomorrow at the Coca-Cola Arena in Dubai. The event brings together global stakeholders from blockchain builders and crypto firms to regulators, investors, and Web3 innovators for panel discussions, workshops, and networking aimed at shaping the future of Web3 and digital assets.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Russian President Vladimir Putin met US special envoy Steve Witkoff in Moscow to discuss ways to end the war in Ukraine. Putin’s aide Yuri Ushakov described the discussions as “constructive” but said much work remains. The meeting followed US consultations with Ukrainian officials in recent weeks to revise a 28-point peace proposal criticized for favoring Moscow. (Reuters | BBC | Axios | New York Times | CNN | Washington Post)

In Washington, US President Donald Trump said he will announce his nominee for Federal Reserve chair in early 2026, naming White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett as a leading contender to replace Jay Powell when his term ends in May. Trump said the search, which once included about ten candidates, is now “down to one,” though final interviews with senior officials will continue in the coming weeks. The president reiterated his criticism of Powell for not cutting interest rates fast enough. (Financial Times | Reuters | Bloomberg)

Meanwhile in crypto markets, BTC climbed back above the USD 90k mark, rebounding after a steep selloff, Bloomberg reports. The recovery came after the Securities and Exchange Commission signaled plans for an “innovation exemption” for digital asset firms and Vanguard announced it would allow trading of crypto-focused ETFs and mutual funds on its platform. Despite the recovery, sentiment remains fragile with traders staying cautious ahead of next week’s Fed rate decision.

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OIL WATCH-

Opec+ stays the course on supply cuts in 1Q 2026: Opec+ agreed to keep oil output quotas unchanged for the first quarter of 2026 in its meeting earlier this week, according to a statement. The decision keeps 3.24 mn bbl/d of production cuts in place, representing some 3% of global demand, and keeps in place an initial plan to hike production in December and keep it steady during the first quarter of the year.

The cartel also approved a mechanism to assess the maximum production capacity for member states, which will be used to set output baselines starting in 2027. An assessment will take place in the first nine months of 2026 to decide the following year’s output quotas, unnamed sources told Reuters.

ICYMI- The eight producers increasing output this year have lifted targets by about 2.9 mn bbl / d between April and December, and the increase in supply was among factors that sent Brent crude’s price down 15% YTD as of Friday’s close to USD 63 / bbl.

“The message from the group was clear: stability outweighs ambition at a time when the market outlook is deteriorating rapidly,” head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy Jorge Leon told Reuters.

US-based DeGolyer and MacNaughton will reportedly carry out most of the work for the review, unnamed delegates told Bloomberg, adding that an Indian company will be selected to review quotas for sanctions-afflicted Russia and Venezuela, as well as Iran which objected to baseline calculations. The three countries are reluctant to let foreign companies audit their energy industries, the business information service says.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

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