Good morning, friends, and happy hump day. Our issue today is packed with big energy-related news and earnings. The big story of the day? Masdar and EtihadWe’s new renewable energy contracts in Saudi Arabia, which will see them develop some 3.5 GW of capacity in the Kingdom.

On the earnings side, we have updates from Adnoc Drilling, e&, Dubai Islamic Bank, Aldar Properties and more for their 3Q financials.

Plus: The ADGM is out with new regulations setting harsher fines on contraventions and expanding its regulatory powers. Let’s dive in.

WEATHER- Expect a high of 33°C and an overnight low of 25°C in both Dubai and Abu Dhabi today, as temperatures continue to cool down, according to our favorite weather app.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Good news for Emirates NBD’s push in India: The Indian Finance Ministry and Reserve Bank of India are weighing a proposal to raise the foreign direct investment (FDI) limit in state-run banks to 49%, more than double its current cap, Reuters reports, quoting unnamed sources. The proposed change would align public sector banks more closely with private lenders, where foreign ownership is permitted up to 74%.

This comes as Emirates NBD prepares to acquire a USD 3 bn, 60% stake in RBL Bank. The agreement is awaiting regulatory approvals due to the existing cap on foreign investments.

#2- Speaking of Emirati banks’ push abroad…: Not one, but two Emirati lenders are said to be eyeing HSBC’s retail business in Egypt, after the global bank said it’s undertaking a “strategic review” of the unit in Egypt. That’s C-suite speak for “we’re looking at options,” which range from solicit offers for the business as part of a potential sale process to keep it as it is. HSBC hasn’t said how long the review would take and there are no changes for retail customers now.

Disclaimer: This is all premature. HSBC isn’t yet accepting expressions of interest and won’t unless the review process it announced last week points in that direction. As it is, the review is just getting underway and the bank hasn’t made any decisions.

Still, the posturing has already begun: Al Mal reported earlier this week that Emirates NBD is interested, quoting an unnamed source as saying the UAE-based lender was running “preliminary studies on the portfolio,” while Asharq Business reports that First Abu Dhabi Bank is also in talks to acquire its portfolio in Egypt. Its portfolio includes roughly EGP 20 bn in loans and EGP 120 bn in deposits.

Our take: We’d absolutely expect Emirates NBD to be interested — it’s already pushing into India with a high-profile acquisition. We believe HSBC Egypt’s retail portfolio is disproportionately weighted toward high-value clients attracted to its Premier proposition. We would be surprised if market heavyweight CIB isn’t interested in having a look, as would QNB Al Ahly — if, indeed, HSBC Group decides the retail portfolio is up for grabs.

#3- The UAE government is expected to maintain “sufficient net asset buffers to sustain its spending plans through economic cycles or fluctuations in commodity prices,” barring a prolonged external shock, S&P Global’s Sovereign Ratings Senior Analyst Juili Pargaonkar told EnterpriseAM in comments on the UAE’s record 2026 budget approved by the cabinet on Monday.

REMEMBER- The final spending plan of the new budget sets out a whopping 29.2% y-o-y jump in expenditure and revenues to AED 92.4 bn compared to 2025’s AED 71.5 bn budget.

“The main contributors to federal revenue include service fees, taxes, and investment

returns from key government-related entities such as Etisalat and Du,” Pargaonkar said. “Proceeds from corporate tax and a global minimum tax of 15% on multinational companies, effective January 2025, are expected to bolster revenue from 2026,” she added. What’s excluded from the budget though are high-profile projects like the Saadiyat Cultural District, the expansion of Al Maktoum Airport, and The Wynn Integrated Resort in Ras Al Khaimah, which fall under each emirate’s remit.

S&P estimates the UAE’s consolidated government liquid assets at 200% of GDP, according to Pargaokar. This substantial net asset position acts as a buffer against oil price volatility and other fiscal hurdles, Pargaonkar added. Inflation is also expected to remain in check despite the increase in spending, she added, citing the centrally administered prices for many basic goods, in addition to the AED’s peg to the USD.

#4- Fujairah gearing up to invest USD 500 mn into Hamra port? Fujairah will invest USD 500 mn into the initial phase of its planned USD 3 bn oil logistics zone at Egypt’s Al Hamra Port on the Mediterranean coast, an Egyptian government official told EnterpriseAM. The agreement comes after Fujairah and Egypt inked an agreement earlier this month to set up a joint-stock company to advance the project.

What we know: The project is making headway and is expected to obtain a golden license, said the source. The project looks to boost exports to Europe via the Mediterranean as well as solidify Egypt’s position as a regional center for energy trade. It also will reduce the cost of petroleum imports. Sources previously said that the project will be completed within three years from the date of construction — work on the superstructure will kick off early next year.

#5- CBUAE prepares new telemarketing rules for banks, FIs: The Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE) is drafting a new regulatory framework for telemarketing for banking and financial services, according to Emarat Al Youm, which obtained a copy of the draft regulation.

Requirements in the works: Firms will need to secure written board-level approval — and, in some cases, approval from the CBUAE — before contacting customers. They’ll also need to obtain prior consent and maintain an up-to-date, do-not-call register for customers opting out of further contact, along with a guide explaining how to opt out of calls and a communication channel for queries. It will also specify the digital, written, and verbal methods to secure customers’ consent.

The draft regs will limit calls to between 9am-6pm from Monday to Friday, and 12pm-5pm on Saturday and Sunday, and require intensive training of telemarketing employees on customer privacy and ethical standards. No calls will be permitted on official holidays, while institutions must comply with any preferred contact time specified by customers.

#6- UAE to roll out emirate-specific online gaming licences? The UAE’s General Commercial Gaming Regulatory Authority (GCGRA) is expected to adopt a one-license-per-emirate model for online gaming, mirroring the framework used for land-based casinos, Inside Asian Gaming reported, citing a Vixio GamblingCompliance report quoting sources familiar with the matter.

Under the model, each of the country’s seven emirates may issue a single B2C online gaming license with the GCGRA to firms, with individual emirates deciding whether or not to participate. Only two or three emirates are likely to opt in for online gaming operations, industry observers told Vixio.

Background: Estonia-based gaming group Yolo Group subsidiaries Hub88 Holdings and Live Online Gaming Services (Live88) received gaming-related vendor licenses from the General Commercial Gaming Regulatory Authority (GCGRA) last week, making Live88 the UAE’s first licensed live online casino, and allowing Yolo to supply B2B iGaming content to the UAE.

IN CONTEXT- The UAE became the first regulated gaming market in the GCC after issuing its national gaming framework last year. The GCGRA has since rolled out key licenses, including the country’s first lottery license to The Game, vendor approvals for TCSJohnHuxley and Australia’s Aristocrat, and a commercial gaming license for Wynn Resorts, which is set to be the first integrated gaming resort in the MENA region.

#7- Dubai links trade and finance under new dual-zone framework: DP World ’s Jebel Ali Freezone Authority (Jafza) and the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) have inked an agreement creating a unified framework for companies seeking to operate across both industrial and financial ecosystems, according to the Dubai Media Office.

The details: The arrangement would connect Jafza’s manufacturing logistics base with DIFC’s financial infrastructure. It would allow companies to use DIFC for holding structures, family offices, and investment vehicles — with access to banks and financial advisory services under DIFC’S regulatory regime — and use Jafza for manufacturing, warehousing, distribution, and other supply chain services through Jebel Ali Port.

PSAs-

#1- Dubai residents will be able to pay government service fees via digital wallet platforms including Apple Pay, Google Pay, and Alipay, according to a Dubai Media Office statement citing Dubai Finance. The rollout, integrated with Dubai Pay and the DubaiNow app, covers services across all Dubai government entities and is expected to be completed by the end of the year.

#2- Settlements for unattested leases in Sharjah: Sharjah’s Executive Council (SEC) approved a temporary settlement scheme for unattested lease contracts, Sharjah24 reports. Those responsible for attesting contracts will receive a 50% exemption on attestation fees and a waiver of administration fines for non-attestation on unattested lease contracts signed before the implementation of the emirate’s new real estate law. The exemptions — covering residential, commercial, industrial, and investment contracts — will be valid from 1 November to 31 December.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- The US Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates for the second time after its September cut at its Federal Open Market Committee today. Softer US inflation figures that came out last week put the Fed on course to make another small 25 basis point cut, analysts say.

Speaking of the Fed, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Fed’s next heir will likely be named by the end of the year, after whittling down the shortlist of candidates to just five, CNBC reports. The names potentially replacing current Fed chair Jerome Powell are: Fed governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, and BlackRock executive Rick Rieder.

#2- The Future Hospitality Summit wraps today at Madinat Jumeirah in Dubai. The summit brings together global hospitality leaders, investors, and industry leaders to explore investments to scale their businesses across key sectors, from hospitality to sustainability, technology, startups, talent, education, and branded residences.

#3- The Asia Pacific Cities Summit also wraps today at the Dubai Exhibition Center. The three-day summit gathers government leaders, urban planners, and industry experts from across the Asia-Pacific region to discuss sustainable city development, smart infrastructure, and cross-border collaboration.

#4- The Abu Dhabi Infrastructure Summit Roadshow will head to China today after its first leg in Singapore, before wrapping up in Ankara and Istanbul in November, state news agency Wam reports. The roadshow will include conferences, B2B meetings, and site visits as it looks to drum up international interest in Abu Dhabi’s USD 54 bn pipeline of infrastructure projects. It is backed by the Abu Dhabi Investment Office and the Department of Municipalities and Transport.

#5- The Annual Gulf Ins. Forum ends today at the Millennium Plaza Downtown Hotel, Dubai. The event will gather insurers, brokers, and regulators from across the region to discuss reins. capacity, pricing, solvency, and risk management in GCC markets, with sessions focusing on resilience, catastrophe response, and financial strength.

#6- The International Forum of Sovereign Wealth Funds kicks off today and runs through to Friday at ADGM. Hosted by Abu Dhabi Investment Authority and Mubadala Investment Company, the event brings together global CEOs and senior executives from sovereign wealth funds with combined assets of more than USD 10 tn, and serves as a platform to exchange ideas and insights on the role sovereign wealth funds play in responding to global volatilities and shaping economic resilience.

#7- The Branded Residences Forum is taking place today at Madinat Jumeirah in Dubai, bringing together developers, hospitality groups, and investors to examine the growing demand for branded real estate and evolving partnerships between luxury hotel brands and property developers.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

A mix of Big Tech news and headlines from the region are getting attention this morning:

#1- The Israel-Hamas ceasefire seems to be in its most fragile state yet, after Israel launched military strikes on Gaza yesterday, killing 26 people. An Israeli military official said the strike was in response to an attack from Hamas against Israeli military forces in an area within Gaza that is under Israeli control. (Reuters | Bloomberg | Financial Times)

#2- OpenAI is likely on track for a public listing, after a restructuring agreement with Microsoft that will see it abandon its nonprofit roots and turn into a public benefit corporation controlled by a nonprofit, as it looks to fund ambitious plans for data centers and AI technology. Microsoft will retain its 27% stake in the firm under the agreement. Its shares rose 2.5% on the news, sending its valuation above USD 4 tn. (Reuters | FT | CNBC | Wall Street Journal)

#3- Also joining the USD 4 tn club yesterday: Apple, which is benefitting from an ongoing rally prompted by positive sales momentum for its new iPhone 17. Only Nvidia and Microsoft have hit the USD 4 tn mark. (Reuters |

#4- As for the USD 5 tn club…: Nvidia was close to touching the USD 5 tn mark after its shares soared 5% yesterday, briefly touching USD 4.94 tn before settling at USD 4.89 tn. This came after it said it had USD 500 bn in bookings for its AI processors. (Reuters)

Other headlines from the firm:

  • The company is taking a stake in Nokia for USD 1 bn, with plans to work together on 6G technology. Nokia’s shares soared 22% on the news. (CNBC | FT )
  • Nvidia CEO dismissed concerns of an AI bubble, saying everyone’s “happily paying” for and enjoying AI models, as it struck industry partnerships with Uber, CrowdStrike, and Palantir Technologies. (Bloomberg)

ALSO- Could Elon Musk leave Tesla? That’s what he’s threatening to do if he does not get his USD 1 tn pay package in a shareholder vote next week. The chair of the board of the EV maker already said they’re lining up candidates to replace him as CEO in case that happens. (Bloomberg)

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MARKET WATCH-

Opec+ likely to opt for another modest output bump for December: The oil cartel is expected to sign off this Sunday on another 137k bbl / d increase to December output targets, Reuters reports, citing two of four sources briefed on the talks. Some members think the group should pause the monthly increases to account for seasonal demand weakness heading into the northern hemisphere winter, Reuters said, citing a fifth source.

Price impact has been mixed: Earlier Opec+ supply additions helped push Brent to a five-month low this month on concerts about a looming surplus. Prices then rebounded to some USD 66 a barrel after the US slapped sanctions on Russia’s top two oil firms — Rosneft and Lukoil — calming glut fears. Trump’s move could potentially strip at least some 1.5 mn bbl / d from the sanctions-abiding oil market, according to Reuters ’ calculations.

Where the cuts stand now: The 5.85 mn bbl / d Opec+ reduction package comprised 2.2 mn bbl / d and 1.65 mn bbl / d of voluntary cuts from the eight members, plus a 2 mn bbl / d cut from the full group. The eight members unwound the full 2.2 mn bbl / d layer by end-September and began unwinding the 1.65 mn bbl / d layer with two 137k bbl / d increases in October and November.

Global LNG supply is set to swell this decade: Some 300 bcm per year of new liquefaction capacity is scheduled to come online by 2030, translating into a potential 250 bcm / year of net LNG supply growth over the same period, according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Gas 2025 report (pdf). The agency expects the surge to weigh on prices — barring major disruptions — and pull more demand into the market.

Demand outlook still climbing: Global gas demand is seen climbing by 1.5% annually through 2030 in the IEA’s base case — or by 380 bcm in absolute terms. About half of that growth — roughly 190 bcm — would come from the Asia Pacific, with the Middle East accounting for close to 30% of the non-Asia share, adding more than 50 bcm of demand over the period.

Natural gas output across the Middle East is forecast to expand by more than 20% — some 165 bcm — between 2024 and 2030, with Saudi Arabia expected to add almost 40 bcm over the period, while the UAE would add around 20 bcm through 2030.

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