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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) now expects Abu Dhabi’s GDP to grow at a 6% clip this year, up from 4.2% earlier in May, and faster than Dubai’s 3.4% growth, state news agency Wam quotes IMF’s director for the Middle East, North Africa and Central Asia Jihad Azour as saying at a presser yesterday. Dubai’s forecast was also raised by 0.1%.
Abu Dhabi in particular benefits from increased oil production following the unwinding of Opec+’s supply cuts, alongside strong non-oil momentum from both services and real estate sectors, Azour said.
REMEMBER- The IMF expects the UAE’s economy to grow4.8%in 2025, up from its 4% forecast in April, placing the UAE among the region’s fastest-growing economies this year. This comes as Opec+ members continue to unwind earlier oil cuts, and earlier this month agreeing to add a total of 137k bbl / d to production again next month, after approving the same additional number of barrels for October.
THE REGIONAL OUTLOOK-
The MENA region’s outlook was revised upward by 0.1 percentage points from July’s forecast to 3.3% in 2025, while the projection for next year’s growth was also revised upward by 0.3 percentage points to 3.7%. The fund now expects the region’s GDP to remain broadly steady over the medium term.
“Economic activity in the Middle East and North Africa has shown remarkable resilience, despite persistent global uncertainty and heightened geopolitical tensions. The region has largely avoided direct fallout from higher US tariffs and global trade restrictions. And while recent tensions have raised concern, their impact has been limited and short-lived,” Azour said in a press briefing (pdf).
The GCC is expected to grow 3.9% this year, up by 0.9 percentage points from the fund’s last forecast, and significantly higher than the 2.2% growth achieved in 2024. This uptick is mainly driven by the accelerated phasing out of OPEC+ production cuts and robust expansion in non-oil sectors. Growth for 2026 was also upgraded by 0.2 percentage points from the previous forecast to 4.3%.
Beyond oil revenues, diversification efforts across the GCC are gaining momentum, with non-oil sectors participating significantly in sustaining growth and job creation, Azour said during the press briefing.
