Good morning, friends. It’s the first day of a new month, which brings with it a slew of events and news.

We have a bit of everything in today’s issue, starting with the IPO of the education arm of Amanat on Tadawul; updates on the pricing of Abu Dhabi’s USD 3 bn debt issuance, which saw the tightest spread among emerging markets on record; and a retreat in Abu Dhabi inflation in August.

It’s also a busy day for investment and infrastructure news: There’s news of three new funds, two from Beco Capital to back startups in the GCC, and another industrial fund courtesy of SC Capital. On the infrastructure side of things, Etihad Rail tapped French firm Keolis to operate passenger services, and Fujairah Port will be linked up with Abu Dhabi ports.

Plus: In regulatory news, ADGM is proposing new crypto staking rules, up for consultation until the end of the month.

WEATHER- Dubai and Abu Dhabi will each see highs of 38°C and lows of 30°C, with sticky nighttime conditions expected.

IN MEMORIAM- Josh Pack, co-chief executive and managing partner of US-based, Mubadala-backed Fortress Investment Group, has passed away at 51, according to a statement. Pack had been with Fortress, which is majority owned by Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala Investment Company, for more than two decades. The firm described Pack as “a gifted investor, a thoughtful strategist, a compassionate leader — and a deeply cherished friend.”

PSAs-

#1- New month, new fuel prices: The Fuel Price Committee raised petrol and diesel prices for the month by up to 3%, according to a post on X. The move comes after September saw petrol inch higher and diesel ease, following a dip in petrol prices and a hike in diesel in August.

Here’s the new breakdown per liter:

  • Super 98 is now AED 2.77, up from AED 2.70 in September (+2.6%);
  • Special 95 is AED 2.66, up from AED 2.58 (+3.1%);
  • E-Plus 91 is AED 2.58, up from AED 2.51 (+2.8%);
  • Diesel is AED 2.71, up from AED 2.66 (+1.9%).

#2- No more power banks aboard Emirates flights: Dubai-based airline Emirates will prohibit passengers from using portable power banks on flights starting today, according to a press release. Passengers are still allowed to store one power bank inside hand baggage, provided it does not exceed 100 Wh.

#3- Etihad Water and Electricity (EtihadWE) is installing smart water meters across homes in the northern emirates to reduce leakages and boost efficiency, Khaleej Times reports. The company has already equipped half of the households with smart meters, with the rest set to be fitted within the next 18 months, CFO Thomas Spannring told the outlet, adding it will also be replacing old pipelines.

Demand is surging: This comes as water demand has surged, with consumption up 10% in the northern emirates for the second consecutive year, requiring an extra 20 gallons a day to keep up, Spannring added. EtihadWE is looking to expand its desalination capacities to cater to consumption trends.

CLARIFICATION- The Federal Authority for Identity, Citizenship, Customs, and Port Security introduced only four new visit visas — for specialists in AI, entertainment, events, and cruise ships/leisure boats.

And the other changes? The business exploration and truck driver visas, along with residence permits for widows/divorcees and humanitarian cases, were amendments to existing permits with updated eligibility and renewal conditions — not new categories as reported in yesterday’s issue, Wam reports. Per the updates:

  • The business exploration visa now requires proof of financial solvency, ownership in a company outside the UAE, or evidence of professional practice;
  • The truck driver visa now applies only to drivers sponsored by freight or shipping firms, and mandates health ins. and financial statements;
  • The humanitarian and widow/divorcee residence permits are now limited to one year and have clarified eligibility rules, including specific conditions for widows or divorcees with or without children,
  • The friend/relative visit visa was also amended to include new minimum income benchmarks for sponsorship based on degrees of kinship.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Spinneys is heading to Southeast Asia, after the UAE-based premium grocer signed a joint venture with the Philippines’ Ayala Corporation to launch its first stores in the country, according to a press release (pdf). The partnership gives Ayala a 60% stake in the joint venture, with Spinneys holding the remaining 40%, and marks the firm’s first expansion outside of the GCC.

Rollout timeline: The first store is slated to open in 4Q 2026 under a phased rollout. Spinneys will support initial setup and operations before management fully transitions to the JV.

Why Philippines? The country offers “significant long-term growth potential,” driven by a growing affluent population and shifting consumer expectations, according to Spinneys CEO Sunil Kumar.

REMEMBER- In August, Spinneys said it was entering the Kuwaiti market through a similar JV agreement — though with the chain holding a larger 51% majority stake and overseeing operations.

#2- China’s Keeta is investing big in the UAE: Keeta, the food delivery arm of Chinese consumer service tech giant Meituan, will invest hundreds of mns of USD in the UAE over the next 3-5 years as part of its regional expansion, under an MoU with the Investment Ministry, state news agency Wam reports. The agreement will see Keeta establish its UAE headquarters and roll out advanced last-mile logistics solutions, including drones and autonomous vehicles.

Market impact: Keeta is pledging to create over 350 skilled jobs and onboard 5k UAE-based SMEs onto its digital platform.

Keeta is coming into a crowded market: Talabat, Deliveroo, and Noon already have a tight grip on the food delivery sector, but Keeta’s entry could shake up market shares as it enters with aggressive promotions and success in markets like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.

#3- More details on Taqa’s Uzbekistan project: Taqa’s water treatment project in Uzbekistan’s new administrative capital is set to cover 500k cubic meters in water capacity to the tune of USD 700 mn, CEO of Taqa Water Solutions Ahmed Al Shamsi told CNBC Arabia (watch, runtime: 4:34). The firm is also looking to submit more bids in Central Asia, the GCC, Europe, and the US, with an investment pipeline of over USD 1 bn, Al Shamsi added.

BACKGROUND- The company recently inked an agreement for a AED 2 bn project to develop a raw water pipeline and treatment plant in Uzbekistan, slated for completion by 2035. This is their second water infrastructure project in the country, after it agreed last year to build a USD 1 bn wastewater treatment plant.

#4- Abu Dhabi bans crypto mining on farms, warns of heavy fines: The Abu Dhabi Agriculture and Food Safety Authority (ADAFSA) has reiterated that cryptocurrency mining is prohibited on farmland, according to Abu Dhabi Media Office. The clarification comes after violations were detected on several farms repurposed for mining operations.

Tougher penalties for violators: ADAFSA said offenders will face fines of AED 100k, doubled in cases of repeat violations. This is up from a AED 10k fine that was announced earlier in 2024. Farms used for mining also risk having electricity cut, services and subsidies suspended, and equipment confiscated. Both owners and tenants will be held accountable, with cases referred to relevant authorities for further action.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- Alec Holdings will determine the final price for its IPO on the DFM today, after wrapping subscriptions yesterday. The contractor marketed 1 bn shares, good for a 20% stake, in what is set to be Dubai’s first corporate IPO of the year. At the top of the pricing range (which is set at AED 1.35-1.40), the secondary offering could see the seller raise up to AED 1.4 bn, implying a market cap of AED 7 bn at listing. Alec shares are scheduled to start trading on the DFM on Wednesday, 15 October.

ADVISORS- Our friends at EFG Hermes are acting as joint bookrunners on the transaction alongside Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank. They’re joined by Emirates NBD Capital and JP Morgan as joint global coordinators and bookrunners, while Moelis is acting as independent financial adviser. Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher, and Ibrahim & Patterns are providing counsel. Emirates NBD is the lead receiving bank, alongside ADCB, ADIB, Al Maryah Community Bank, Commercial Bank of Dubai, Dubai Islamic Bank, Emirates Islamic, First Abu Dhabi Bank, Mashreq, and Wio Bank.

#2- The Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange’s (ADX) Global Investor Roadshow and Conference is on its final day in New York, held in partnership with Morgan Stanley, state news agency Wam reports. ADX Chairman Ghannam Almazrouei and CEO Abdulla Alnuaimi are leading a delegation of 15 listed companies — together worth over USD 300 bn — for meetings with global asset managers, hedge funds, and institutional investors.

#3- The Abu Dhabi Department of Economic Development’s (ADDED) Abu DhabiInvestment Forum is also happening today in New York, Wam reports. Held in partnership with ADGM and the Abu Dhabi Investment Office, the forum is part of a high-level US delegation visit led by ADDED. The delegation will also meet with US business leaders across the AI, life sciences, and advanced manufacturing sectors, among others.

#4- The Global Rail Transport Infrastructure Exhibition and Conference is also underway and wraps tomorrow at the Adnec Center Abu Dhabi. The conference gathers industry leaders, government officials, and operators to discuss rail technologies and network expansion.

#5- The Water, Energy, Technology, and Environment Exhibition (Wetex) is also on from until tomorrow at the Dubai World Trade Center. The exhibition showcases innovations in clean energy, water, and sustainability, and hosts panels on the energy transition and climate action.

#6- MENA Investment Congress (MENA Icon) wraps today at Rosewood Hotel Abu Abu Dhabi. The event will bring together regional and international investors, asset managers, and policymakers to discuss capital markets, portfolio strategies, and regional growth prospects. Speakers include hedge fund manager Ray Dalio, Apex Group’s Chief AI and Data Science Officer Helen Wang, and early stage investor Hamza Khushaim.

#6- TheEnergy Markets Forum will take place today and Thursday, 2 October in Fujairah. The event will bring together more than 300 participants, including senior officials, experts, and executives from local, regional, and international energy and industry entities, to discuss supply security, global economic shifts, and sector risks and potential.

#7- The World Green Economy Summit (WGES) is running from today to Friday this week at the Dubai World Trade Center. Organized by the World Green Economy Organization — in partnership with Dubai’s Electricity and Water Authority and Supreme Council of Energy — the global summit focuses on green economy, sustainability, and climate action. The forum convenes policymakers, business leaders, academics, and civil society to discuss climate solutions and sustainable economic models.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

The Zawya GCC Capital Markets Forum will take place on Thursday at the Fairmont in Dubai. The forum will bring together GCC corporates from traditional wealth exporters to growing capital market participants to address how capital markets are evolving, as well as their surrounding macro environment. The forum will feature C-suite speakers from banks and leading financial institutions including HSBC, Standard Chartered Bank, Emirates NBD, and EFG Hermes.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Everyone in the foreign press has one story in mind, and that’s the looming government shutdown in the US, after Democrats blocked Republicans’ funding plan ahead of the midnight deadline. This will mean essential workers will be furloughed — with many possibly even getting permanently laid off, US President Donald Trump has warned.

The main issue? Democrats are demanding the extension of expiring subsidies for Obamacare and the reversal of cuts to Medicaid that were included in Trump’s big, beautiful bill.

This would be the US’ first shutdown since 2019, when a shutdown lasted around five weeks during Trump’s first term. This time around, the stakes are slightly higher: The US Federal Reserve is set to meet at the end of October to discuss and make a decision on interest rates, and with a delay in government data expected — as well as potentially worse jobless data in light of Trump’s warnings — the Fed’s judgment could be further clouded ahead of the crucial decision. (Reuters | Bloomberg | Financial Times | New York Times | Wall Street Journal)

ALSO WORTH NOTING- Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is reportedly closing in on a USD 10 bn deal to buy Occidental Petroleum’s petrochemicals arm OxyChem — a move the Financial Times says would be the conglomerate’s largest acquisition in three years. Occidental is offloading the unit as part of efforts to trim its USD 24 bn debt load. Berkshire, already Occidental’s biggest shareholder with nearly 27% of its stock, is said to be negotiating a cash purchase.

ALSO GETTING ATTENTION- Trump has given Hamas three to four days to respond to his proposed peace plan for Gaza, warning of a “very sad end” if it does not accept the proposal. The 20-point plan, which calls for an immediate ceasefire and Hamas’ disarmament, Israel’s staged withdrawal, and a transitional foreign-led government in Gaza, has received widespread global support, including from the Palestinian Authority. Hamas was not involved in the negotiations that led to the proposal. (Reuters | Guardian)

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OIL WATCH-

Oil equities may be set for a rebound: Energy stocks have been among the year’s worst performers, weighed down by falling crude prices — with Brent down more than 9% YTD and WTI down over 8% — and record-low net long positions in WTI futures, Jay Pelosky, the Founder and Global Strategist at TPW Advisory wrote in Reuters. Yet, the sector led gains last week, hinting that the deeply bearish case could be softening, even as prices started to slip again.

The bearish narrative rests on oversupply forecasts: The IEA sees demand growth in 2026 at just 700k bbl / d, the lowest since 2009 outside the pandemic years. The US Energy Department expects Brent to average USD 51 / bbl in 2026 — down from roughly USD 70 at present — with inventories building by more than 1.7 mn bbl / d next year. That outlook is tied to the view that Opec+ will ramp up production after unwinding cuts, though analysts argue the group is already falling behind on quota.

Two wildcards could flip the script: Ukraine’s drone strikes have sidelined about a quarter of Russia’s refining capacity, prompting Moscow to partially ban diesel exports — sending Brent up more than 1% after the announcement. Meanwhile, China has been importing nearly 1 mn bbl / d above its domestic needs on average this year. With significant storage capacity still unused, continued stockpiling could underpin demand in the months ahead.

The traditional commodity cycle is turning, as precious metals have already surged, with the Gold Miners ETF doubling YTD. Industrial metals have followed, with the Copper Miners ETF up nearly 30% over the past three months, leaving energy as the next likely leg. A weaker USD — the greenback is down almost 10% this year — could add momentum, as crude is priced in USD.

Risks remain: A prolonged trade war under Trump could weigh on global demand. Still, a looser US monetary policy, Beijing’s anti-deflation push, and surging AI-driven capex point to stronger growth. With positioning in oil so bearish, any upside surprise — whether from geopolitics, Opec+ shortfalls, or China’s buying spree — could deliver sharp gains in oil-linked equities.

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