Good morning, lovely people, and happy hump day. Today’s issue is a continuation of yesterday’s real estate theme, with another M&A as Aldar buys out Modon’s stake in Aldar Estates, and construction firm Alec Holding selling out its IPO on the first day of subscription.

We also have a macro update courtesy of ICAEW, which maintained its forecast for UAE’s economic growth this year, as well as investment news, with Presight and Shorooq teaming up for a USD 100 mn global AI fund.

ALSO- Dubai jumped to fifth place on UBS’ 2025 GlobalReal Estate Bubble Index (pdf), up from 14th last year, as real home prices rose more than 50% in five years — the fastest growth among surveyed cities. The index measures bubble risk based on price-to-income and price-to-rent ratios, mortgage lending, and construction activity. Globally, Miami topped the ranking, with Tokyo and Zürich also flagged as high risk.

Behind the ranking: UBS cited incomes falling behind prices, a 15% population increase since 2020, and tight supply as key reasons behind elevated bubble risk. Building permits suggest new construction could soon reach highs not seen since 2017, while competition for foreign real estate investment is intensifying between Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Riyadh.

Still, homes in Dubai are more affordable than most, and rental yields remain high, the report said. Optimistic investors see “catch-up potential and prospects for strong future returns,” it added.

REMEMBER- Reports have been circulating around increased speculative buying in the UAE, with some already struggling to flip unbuilt homes. Resales of off-plan units fell to 20% of total resales in July, down from a third earlier this year. Fitch Ratings sees a price correction of up to 15% as early as 2H 2025, Knight Frank forecasts 8% growth this year versus double-digit gains in 2024, while Moody’s projects a dip or stabilization over the next 12-18 months.

WEATHER- It’s going to be a slightly dusty day, with the mercury in Dubai reaches 36°C today before cooling to 28°C overnight. Over in Abu Dhabi, temperatures will peak at 37°C, before cooling to 30°C.

MORNING MUST READ-

How much investments do AI firms really need to meet soaring demand for compute by the end of the decade? USD 2 tn, Bain and Co. said in its annual Global Technology Report (pdf). Demand is rising at more than twice the pace of Moore’s Law — a common benchmark that assumes the number of transistors on an integrated circuit doubles about every two years. Meeting this level of demand could require 200 GW of new capacity worldwide by 2030 — half of which will need to be in the US — and as much as USD 500 bn in annual data center investment.

The revenue gap: Even if companies redirected all IT budgets to the cloud and recycled AI-driven savings into infrastructure, Bain sees an USD 800 bn annual shortfall in the revenues needed to fund that build out.

Hyperscalers are already committing record sums, with Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta expected to push combined AI spending above USD 500 bn a year by early next decade, Bloomberg Intelligence estimates. Yet, without new revenue models or major efficiency gains, the industry risks stranded infrastructure on one side or unmet demand on the other, Bain cautions.

Still, there are some wildcards. Breakthroughs in algorithms, hardware, or quantum computing could ease the crunch, but supply-chain chokepoints — from GPUs to electricity grids — remain critical risks.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- BYD to roll out hundreds of fast chargers in the UAE, KSA: Chinese automaker BYD will build hundreds of 1 MW fast chargers in the UAE and a similar number in Saudi Arabia, Asharq Business reports, citing Vice President Stella Li. The rollout is part of a push in the Gulf region that will see between 500 and 1k units installed within two years. Each charger can deliver enough power for 400 km of driving in just five minutes.

REMEMBER- The UAE is targeting 50% EV adoption by 2050 under its National Electric Vehicles Policy and is rapidly scaling up its infrastructure. Over 500 public EV chargers are set to be installed by year-end, with state-backed UAEV aiming for 1k stations by 2030. Adnoc Distribution has expanded to 200+ chargers and targets 500 by 2028, while Abu Dhabi Mobility is rolling out 1k Charge AD stations under PPPs.

#2- Daman Investments has opened up its UAE IPO Fund to retail investors, lowering the minimum subscription to just AED 1k as it looks to broaden access to the country’s buoyant IPO market, according to a press release. Launched in 2022 as an institution- and HNW-only vehicle, the fund targets IPOs and recently listed companies on regulated exchanges in the UAE and globally.

REMEMBER- The UAE has so far seen only two listings this year — Alpha Data and Dubai Residential REIT — but is gearing up for the IPO of Alec Holdings, and several more in the pipeline.

#3- Wealthy Indians could funnel as much as USD 20 bn a year into UAE assets, AlKhaleej reports, citing Nisus Finance Chairman and Managing Director, Amit Goenka. This is especially after India’s central bank eased foreign investment rules, allowing companies to deploy capital abroad without obtaining prior approval as long as exposure does not exceed 400% of its net worth. The scope includes loans, guarantees, and stakes in JVs or wholly owned subsidiaries.

Why the UAE? The Emirates remain the top destination for Indian capital, led by real estate. Industry and logistics services are also gaining momentum, thanks to government incentives, fast-track licensing, and land grants. The UAE’s REIT market (USD 7-8 bn today) is tipped to grow significantly over the next 5-7 years, according to Goenka.

Indian firms are already active in the UAE this year: Titansnapped up 67% of Dubai jeweler Damas International for AED 1 bn, Kotak Internationalsecured an UAE’s Securities and Commodities Authority (SCA) licence to sell investment funds and portfolios directly to onshore retail investors, and Adani Portsacquired 80% of Dubai offshore marine services firm Astro Offshore.

#4- The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (Adia) is looking to sell its 70% stake in Paya Lebar Quarter (PLQ) mall in Singapore, The Edge reports, citing the Australian Financial Review. The stake comprises three Grade A office towers and PLQ Mall. Lendlease Group, which owns the remaining 30%, is working with Adia to divest the PLQ mall, according to its CEO Tony Lombardo. The mall, with over 340k sq ft of retail space, is reportedly valued at over USD 1 bn.

DATA POINTS-

#1-New licenses for UAE investment funds jumped 260% y-o-y in 2024, Securities and Commodities Authority CEO Waleed Al Awadhi told Al Bayan. The number of licensed local funds rose 48% in the same period, while assets managed by fund managers and securities portfolios reached AED 195 bn.

#2- The UAE is now one of the world’s top five crypto destinations for wealthy investors, according to the Henley & Partners crypto wealth report 2025. The UAE ranked in fifth place after Singapore, which topped the index, the US, Hong Kong, and Switzerland.

Tax treatment is the draw: The UAE scored a perfect 10 on Henley’s Crypto Adoption Index for tax-friendliness, with zero levies on trading, staking and mining. That framework has made the Gulf state a magnet for high-net-worth individuals seeking exposure in jurisdictions that won’t tax their holdings.

The global population of crypto m’naires has surged 40% y-o-y to 241.7k, primarily driven by BTC investors, according to the report.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- FM attends UN General Assembly in New York: Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan is in New York for the UN General Assembly, which started yesterday and will run until next Monday, 29 September, according to a Foreign Ministry statement. The summit is expected to be dominated by discussions around the ongoing war in Gaza, with several countries — including the UK, France, and Canada — formally recognizing Palestine as a state, and Saudi Arabia and France set to co-chair meetings on the two-state solution.

On the sidelines: The foreign minister has already met with counterparts from Argentina, Papua New Guinea, Guatemala, Georgia, and El Salvador, along with the Intergovernmental Authority on Development’s executive secretary, to discuss UN agenda items, regional conflicts, and cooperation in trade, investment, food security, and climate, Wam reports. He separately sat down with World Food Programme head Cindy McCain to review humanitarian coordination.

ALSO- Al Nahyan participated in a multilateral meeting hosted by US President Donald Trump, focusing on the war in Gaza reaching an end to the conflict, Wam reported separately.

#2- The South African State-Owned Enterprises Investment and Cooperation Summit wraps today at the Waldorf Astoria in Dubai International Financial Center. The three-day summit — which is hosted by African bank Standard Bank — will connect South African state-owned enterprises with investors in the UAE and wider Gulf region, as well as sovereign wealth funds and large corporations, in a bid to boost the country’s trade and infrastructure development.

#3-The MENA EV Show also wraps today at The Agenda in Dubai Media City. The show will connect stakeholders in the global EV value chain — from small startups to investors, governments, and auto manufacturers — to showcase the EV industry’s latest technologies.

#4- The Future Food Forum also concludes today at Le Méridien Dubai Hotel and Conference Center. Organized by the UAE Food and Beverage Manufacturers Group, the event brings together government officials, global food producers, and industry leaders to discuss supply chain resilience, trade windows under the UAE’s economic agreements, and adopting new technologies in food manufacturing.

#5- The Mohammed Bin Rashid Leaders Forum will take place today and tomorrow in Dubai, at the Mohammed Bin Rashid Center for Leadership Development. The forum brings together 1k government and private sector leaders for discussions, workshops, and lectures aimed at shaping future leadership models, proactive strategic thinking, and governance management.

#6- Dubai World Congress for Self-Driving Transport is also happening today and tomorrow at the Dubai World Trade Center. Hosted by the Roads and Transport Authority, the congress will see tech experts, policy makers, investors, government officials, and international and regional autonomous mobility firms meet for two days of seminars, panels, and exhibitions.

#7- The AjbanDefense Industry and Technology Exhibition will wrap up today at the Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Center. The event looks to showcase the UAE’s defense supply chain and promote local manufacturing by identifying new domestic suppliers. The event features one-on-one meetings, talks on supply chain challenges, knowledge hubs focusing on digital innovation in the defense sector, and networking lounges for investors, stakeholders, and exhibitors.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Global headlines this morning are focused on Trump’s latest regarding the Russia-Ukraine war. In a sharp shift from earlier comments urging territorial concessions, US President Donald Trump said that Kyiv could “win all of Ukraine back” shortly after meeting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. “With time, patience, and the financial support of Europe and, in particular, NATO, the original Borders from where this War started, is very much an option,” Trump wrote in a post on his Truth Social platform. (Reuters | Associated Press | Financial TImes | The Guardian | BBC | Washington Post | Axios)

AND IN MARKETS NEWS- Fed boss Jay Powell cooled Wall Street’s hopes for a rapid easing cycle, warning that while last week’s 25 bps cut took some pressure off the job market, moving too aggressively could leave the inflation fight unfinished. He flagged upside risks to prices and downside risks to employment, striking a more cautious tone. US equities slipped on the remarks — the tech-heavy Nasdaq led declines, falling 1.0%, with Nvidia down 2.8%, while the S&P 500 shed 0.6%. (Financial Times | CNBC | The Guardian | CNN | New York Times | Reuters | Bloomberg)

ALSO WORTH READING THIS MORNING– Bloomberg takes a deep dive into how researchers and campaigners who warned of superintelligent systems wiping out humanity are losing clout as tech giants race ahead.

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

ZawyaGCC Capital Markets Forum will take place on Thursday, 2 October at the Fairmont Dubai. The forum will see GCC corporates — from traditional wealth exporters to growing capital market participants — discuss capital markets and their future prospects, as well as the surrounding macro environment. The forum will feature C-suite speakers from banks and financial institutions including HSBC, Standard Chartered Bank, Emirates NBD, and EFG Hermes.

The European Arab Medical Congress will run from Thursday, 9 October until Saturday, 11 October at the Abu Dhabi Energy Center. The event brings together regional and global healthcare leaders to explore practical approaches in rehabilitation and psychology — featuring more than 20 workshops and sessions for clinicians, researchers, and policymakers.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

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