The ICAEW maintained the UAE’s GDP growth forecast for the year at 5.1% in its latest Economic Insight quarterly report prepared by Oxford Economics. Growth will be supported by a 4.7% expansion in the non-oil sector, contributing 77% of total output, according to the ICAEW. This is down 0.1 percentage point from its earlier forecast. Non-energy growth is projected to average 4.5% over the next few years.

How their forecast compares: The Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE) upgraded earlier this month its real GDP growth forecast to 4.9% in 2025, up from a 4.4% projection in June, boosted by oil rebound and steady non-oil momentum. The CBUAE’s projection is broadly in line with Standard Chartered’s 5% forecast for 2025, but above Fitch Solutions’ BMI (4.3%) and the IMF (4%). Further ahead, Standard Chartered expects growth to moderate to 4% in the following two years.

Trade policy uncertainty has cooled down in recent months, with the UAE’s non-oil exports jumping nearly 45% y-o-y during 1H 2025, reflecting “the UAE’s rising prominence as a global trade hub” and mirroring ongoing progress toward national diversification objectives, according to the report.

Tourism will also help boost the UAE’s resilience, macroeconomic stability, and budget flexibility amid oil price volatility and geopolitical tension, the report reads, with nearly 10 mn tourists visiting Dubai in 1H, marking a 6% y-o-y increase.

The region at a glance: The ICAEW now expects the GCC’s GDP growth this year to almost double to 4.1% in 2025, down from its previous forecast of 4.4% growth on downward revisions for Saudi Arabia amid budgetary restrictions, before expanding further to 4.6% next year.

The region’s energy-sector is projected to grow by 4.9% in 2025, up from 4.6% in its earlier forecast, and 6% in 2026, on the back of increased oil production. Meanwhile, non-oil sectors are forecast to expand by 4% this year, backed by robust labor markets, credit growth, and ongoing diversification efforts.

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