Good morning, friends. It’s a busy morning here at home, with several big-ticket M&As announced along with reports on FDI pouring into Dubai in 1H 2025, and the state of the UAE’s construction pipeline. There’s also a big real estate theme in today’s issue, with Arada acquiring a London developer, Binghatti and Aldar Properties lining up fresh issuances, and more.

Plus: Masdar is developing a new solar plant in Oman as part of a consortium, and Nvidia is opening up its first Middle East AI Technology Center in the UAE as part of a partnership with the Technology Institute of Innovation. Let’s dive in.

BUT FIRST- As we inch closer to the end of the year, speculation around the trajectory of property prices in Dubai is only growing louder. Several have forecast a modest correction in prices as soon as this year, and there are signs that the property market is already showing cracks.

Speculative investors are struggling to offload unfinished homes bought for quick resale, brokers told the Financial Times. Resales of unbuilt units slid to 20% of total resales in July, down from about a third earlier this year, according to Property Monitor data picked up by FT. Some investors have gone months without a single bid, with analysts warning many were sold “a false promise of easy money.”

Prices are now 25% above their 2014 peak — with the emirate set to surpass its longest ever bull run — with 57 consecutive monthly increases — in just a few weeks if October figures show more signs of growth. But supply is swelling fast, with some 93k new units — mostly apartments — entering the market so far this year, and another 250k expected by 2027. Fitch projects a 15% drop in prices in 2H 2025, while Moody’s sees a modest correction beginning in 2026.

ALSO- The region’s first thematic ETF hit the ADX yesterday, courtesy of Lunate. Boreas Solactive Quantum Computing Ucits ETF, the first thematic ETF in the region, rang the opening bell on the ADX yesterday under the ticker QUANTM, according to a press release (pdf). Launched by ADGM-based asset manager Lunate, the fund tracks an index of 25 global quantum computing firms including Alphabet, Amazon, IBM, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The index has delivered 29.4% in compounded annual growth since 2017.

DATA POINT- The listing brings the total number of ETFs on ADX to 17 and is only the second to debut on the exchange this year. The market cap attributed to ADX-listed ETFs has doubled y-o-y to about AED 1.7 bn by end-August.

WEATHER- Temperatures are on their way down, with the mercury set to peak at 36°C in Dubai, before cooling to an overnight low of 30°C. Abu Dhabi is still on the warmer side, with the mercury rising to 40°C before cooling to 29°C overnight.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Binghatti lines up banks for fresh green paper: Dubai-based developer and IPO-hopeful Binghatti Holding tapped banks for a planned USD-denominated Reg S-compliant senior unsecured green sukuk with a three-year tenor, Zawya reports. The sale will be issued under Binghatti’s USD 1.5 bn trust certificate program. Investor calls and roadshows are already underway.

ICYMI- Just last month, the firm, rated Ba3 by Moody’s and BB- by Fitch, sold USD 500 mn worth of five-year sukuk that was listed on Nasdaq Dubai and the London Stock Exchange. The developer closed two sukuk issuances last year raising a total of USD 500 mn.

ADVISORS- Our friends at Mashreq are the sole green structurer, and are quarterbacking the transaction as global coordinators alongside Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank, Dubai Islamic Bank, Emirates NBD Capital, and JP Morgan. Meanwhile, Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, Ajman Bank, Arqaam Capital, Crédit Agricole CIB, First Abu Dhabi Bank, Rakbank, Sharjah Islamic Bank and Warba Bank are serving as joint leads and bookrunners.

ALSO FROM DEBT MARKETS- #2- Aldar Investment Properties is reopening two of its outstanding green sukuk, with two taps of USD 145 mn each for its USD 500 mn green trust certificates for 2034 and 2035, Zawya reports. The sukuk, structured as senior unsecured Reg S Wakala/Murabaha, was priced yesterday, with some USD 1 bn in orders coming in, IFR reports. The pricing has not yet been made public, but it was likely tightened from initial price thoughts of 103.375% for the 2034 notes and 101.250% for the 2035 paper, given the strong demand.

The notes will be listed on Euronext Dublin and the ADX. Aldar is rated Baa1 with a stable outlook by Moody’s.

Aldar last tapped the debt market in March, selling a USD 500 mn green sukuk at a 5.25% coupon in an offering that was 7.2x oversubscribed. That came shortly after the group closed a record AED 9 bn sustainability-linked revolving credit facility in January, the largest syndicated loan of its kind secured by a MENA developer.

ADVISORS- Aldar appointed First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB) and Standard Chartered Bank as joint green structurers, with Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank, Emirates NBD Capital, FAB, JP Morgan and Standard Chartered Bank acting as joint leads and bookrunners.

#3- G42-backed Kenya data center delayed: A USD 1 bn geothermal-powered data center in Kenya — announced in 2024 by Abu Dhabi’s G42 and Microsoft — has yet to break ground, Semafor reports, citing a tech infrastructure financier involved in the project. The Olkaria facility was due to go live in May 2026, but remains untouched as developers struggle to find a viable business case and demand for Microsoft’s cloud services. The agreement came together “in a very geopolitical way,” rather than on commercial logic, the financier said,

REFRESHER- G42 and Microsoft launched the project last year to drive digitalization and AI adoption in East Africa. It was to serve as a new East Africa cloud region offering Microsoft Azure within two years of signing definitive agreements.

This isn’t the only G42-linked project facing delays: The planned 5 GW AI campus in the UAE — centerpiece of a USD 200 bn US-UAE investment pact — is also “far from finalized,” with security concerns over Chinese tech access slowing progress. The first phase, Stargate UAE, is due in 2026 and would host American-managed services powered by Nvidia’s GB300 chips, with Dubai’s Khazna Data Centers building next-gen data halls to support the Blackwell architecture.

#4- India’s ClearTax plans to be among the first e-invoice providers in the UAE: Indian fintech ClearTax will invest AED 184 mn to get involved in the first phase of the UAE’s electronic invoicing system, which is set to be rolled out in July 2026, Al Khaleej quotes CEO Arshat Gupta as saying. It is targeting more than 600k VAT-registered companies in the UAE, as well as nearly 1.5 mn firms in the wider region.

REMEMBER- The Finance Ministry has been gearing up to launch an e-invoicing system in 2026 after amending tax and VAT regulations. Businesses will be required to issue invoices and credit notes electronically and maintain digital records as part of a phased rollout.

About the company: ClearTax specializes in providing AI-powered tax and compliance solutions to large enterprises, such as e-invoicing, tax filing, digital payments, accounts automation, and supply chain financing. It serves more than 5k enterprises worldwide, processing over USD 500 bn in invoices annually.

DATA POINT-

Gross bank assets grew 1.0% m-o-m to AED 5.0 tn in July, according to the Central Bank of the UAE’s latest monetary and banking developments report (pdf). Gross credit rose 1.4% to AED 2.4 tn, supported by AED 21 bn in domestic credit and AED 10.9 bn in foreign credit. Within domestic credit, lending to the government sector increased by 5.2%, while government-related entities saw lending grow 1.5%, and the private sector saw lending increase by 0.5%. Lending to non-banking financial institutions grew 2.5%.

Total bank deposits increased 1.1% m-o-m to AED 3 tn, as resident deposits rose 1.1% to AED 2.8 tn and non-resident deposits grew 1.0% to AED 259.7 bn. Within resident deposits, deposits from government-related entities climbed 5.0%, government deposits rose 2.9%, and private sector deposits increased 0.7%, while deposits from non-banking financial institutions fell 11.1%.

PSA-

Emirates cancelled several flights to Hong Kong and Shenzhen in China as the cities are set to be hit by a cyclone today and tomorrow, according to a travel update. So far, flights today, tomorrow, and on Thursday have been cancelled, with other regional and international airlines also stopping flights in anticipation of the extreme weather.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- FM attends UN General Assembly in New York: Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan is in New York for the UN General Assembly, which started yesterday and will run until next Monday, 29 September, according to a Foreign Ministry statement. The summit is expected to be dominated by discussions around the ongoing war in Gaza, with several countries — including the UK, France, and Canada — formally recognizing Palestine as a state, and Saudi Arabia and France set to co-chair meetings on the two-state solution.

#2- The South African State-Owned Enterprises Investment and Cooperation Summit kicked off yesterday and runs until Wednesday at the Waldorf Astoria in Dubai International Financial Center. The three-day summit — which is hosted by African bank Standard Bank — will connect South African state-owned enterprises with investors in the UAE and wider Gulf region, as well as sovereign wealth funds and large corporations, in a bid to boost the country’s trade and infrastructure development.

#3- The MENA EV Show is taking place today and tomorrow at The Agenda in Dubai Media City. The show will connect stakeholders in the global EV value chain — from small startups to investors, governments, and auto manufacturers — to showcase the EV industry’s latest technologies.

#4- The Future Food Forum is on today and tomorrow at Le Méridien Dubai Hotel and Conference Center. Organized by the UAE Food and Beverage Manufacturers Group, the event brings together government officials, global food producers, and industry leaders to discuss supply chain resilience, trade windows under the UAE’s economic agreements, and adopting new technologies in food manufacturing.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

#1- The Mohammed Bin Rashid Leaders Forum will take place on Wednesday and Thursday in Dubai, at the Mohammed Bin Rashid Center for Leadership Development. The forum brings together 1k government and private sector leaders for discussions, workshops, and lectures aimed at shaping future leadership models, proactive strategic thinking, and governance management.

#2- Dubai World Congress for Self-Driving Transport is also happening on Wednesday and Thursday at the Dubai World Trade Center. Hosted by the Roads and Transport Authority, the congress will see tech experts, policy makers, investors, government officials, and international and regional autonomous mobility firms meet for two days of seminars, panels, and exhibitions.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

One story is on every single front page this morning: Nvidia will invest up to USD 100 bn in OpenAI in a potential transaction executives hailed as the “next leap forward” in artificial intelligence — the two sides announced the letter of intent last night. If the transaction proceeds as planned, it would mark the largest-ever investment in a private company. As part of the agreement, OpenAI will buy 10 GW-worth of Nvidia AI processors to power its AI infrastructure and train its next generation of models. Nvidia shares closed up 3.9% following the announcement. (Bloomberg | Reuters | The Guardian | BBC | CNBC | New York Times | Financial Times)

ALSO MAKING HEADLINES- Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Moscow could continue to adhere to the New START nuclear accord beyond its February 2026 expiry — but only if Washington reciprocates — offering what he called “voluntary, self-imposed restrictions.” The treaty caps each side at 1.55k deployed nuclear warheads and 700 delivery vehicles, and its approaching expiration date has raised fears of an arms race. (Reuters | New York Times | Washington Post | Bloomberg)

PLUS- Jimmy Kimmel Live will return to ABC tonight after nearly a week off the air, ending a suspension that sparked fierce debate over political pressure on broadcasters. Disney said it spent several days in talks with Kimmel before reversing course. (Axios | BBC | Associated Press | CNBC | New York Times | The Guardian | Reuters)

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