The UAE’s real GDP grew 3.9% y-o-y in 1Q 2025, state news agency Wam reports, citing preliminary data from the Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Center.

The non-oil sector is to thank: Non-oil GDP expanded 5.3% to AED 352 bn, bringing the share of non-oil activities to a record 77.3% of the economy. Meanwhile, the oil sector accounted for the remaining 22.7% of output during the quarter.

Manufacturing led overall growth, with the sector’s 7.7% y-o-y growth outpacing other industries. Finance and ins., along with construction, each grew at a 7.0% clip, while real estate activities grew 6.6% and trade 3.0%.

Top contributors to non-oil GDP: Trade continued to account for the largest share of non-oil GDP at 15.6%, followed by finance and ins. at 14.6%, manufacturing (13.4%), construction (12.0%), and real estate (7.4%).

REMEMBER- Non-oil foreign trade jumped 24% y-o-y to nearly AED 1.7 tn in 1H 2025, with exports surging 44.7% to a record AED 369.5 bn and accounting for 21.4% of total non-oil trade. The sector is now on track to hit AED 4 tn by 2027 — four years ahead of the original 2031 target.

The bigger picture: The UAE is targeting a GDP of AED 3 tn by 2031. Standard Chartered expects the UAE economy to grow 5% in 2025 before moderating to 4% over the following two years. The IMF projects 4% growth this year, while the CBUAE now sees GDP expanding by 4.4% in 2025 — up from 4% in 2024 — and accelerating to 5.4% in 2026. Fitch Solutions’ BMI, meanwhile, trimmed its 2025 forecast to 4.3% from 4.6%, still above the 4% recorded last year.

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