Dubai’s ultra-prime real estate market logged USD 2.6 bn in home sales priced above USD 10 mn in 2Q 2025, up 37% q-o-q and 63% y-o-y, Bloomberg reports, citing Knight Frank data. The surge came despite a volatile quarter — marked by the 12-day Israel-Iran conflict and the announcement of US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs — as favorable visa reforms and continued demand from wealthy expats sustained momentum.

A total of 143 high-value transactions were logged, up 52% y-o-y, including 22 sales above USD 25 mn in value. For the first time since 2Q 2023, more apartments above the USD 10 mn mark were sold than villas — 80 compared to 63 — signaling a shift in buyer preferences at the top end of the market.

ICYMI- Dubai recorded 111 transactions over USD 10 mn in 1Q — the highest 1Q total on record. That followed a record 435 such sales in 2024, nearly matching the combined tally for London and New York.

Prices steady q-o-q: Average prices across 10 prime neighborhoods rose 18% y-o-y but held flat q-o-q. This suggests that “healthy market activity,” rather than price inflation, drove the jump in total transaction value, Knight Frank notes.

More holding, less flipping: The share of homes resold within a year fell to around 5% in 2Q, well below the 28% peak seen in 2008 and pointing to a more stable, long-term investor base and reduced speculative investing.

REMEMBER- It’s going to be a big year for HNWIs eyeing the UAE: Knight Frank forecasts USD 10.3 bn in global capital will flow into Dubai’s property market by year-end, up from USD 6.9 bn in 2024. In a survey of 387 high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs), 68% ranked UAE residential real estate as their top asset class, with 33% planning to invest in 2025. Over half are considering relocating to Dubai as a primary residence. That’s not to mention that some 9.8k m’naires are set to relocate to the UAE this year.

Yes, but: Fitch Ratings expects a moderate correction in Dubai home prices beginning in 2H 2025, following a roughly 70% increase since 2021. While prime areas are seen as more resilient, non-core neighborhoods could see declines of up to 15% as new supply — projected to exceed 250k units by 2027 — begins to outpace population growth. Moody’s and Deloitte also forecast a slowdown or stabilization in price and rent growth.

LUXURY SECTOR FARED BETTER THAN MOST IN JUNE-

The ValuStrat Price Index (VPI) for Dubai residential properties rose 23.9% y-o-y and 1.5% m-o-m in June, according to ValuStrat’s latest report (pdf). Villa prices continued to outperform apartments, with values up 28.7% y-o-y compared to 19.1% for apartments. Freehold villa values across Dubai are now 180% higher than post-pandemic levels, while apartment values are up 73%.

Luxury neighborhoods led price gains: Villa prices in Jumeirah Islands and Palm Jumeirah saw the strongest annual growth, rising 41.1% and 40.5% respectively. Among apartments, The Greens topped the chart with a 24.4% increase, followed by Dubai Silicon Oasis at 23.4%. ValuStrat logged 40 ready-property transactions priced above AED 30 mn in June alone, including 15 that exceeded AED 50 mn.

Off-plan demand led the rally: Off-plan transactions accounted for 73.4% of all residential transactions in June. While registrations dipped 8% m-o-m, they remained up 60.1% y-o-y. Ready secondary-home transactions fell 14.3% m-o-m but were still 11% higher y-o-y. Jumeriah Village Circle and Business Bay were among the most active areas for both off-plan and secondary market sales.

Developer leaderboard: Emaar led June sales with a 13.9% market share, followed by Damac, which held a 13.3% market share.

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