Good morning, friends. We have a busy issue for you this morning as we get back to business as usual following the Eid lull, with new regulatory updates related to Emiratization and Abu Dhabi’s real estate sector, a new partnership with Adnoc Logistics & Services to streamline Borouge’s exports, and more details on a potential grid link with India.

ALSO- THE BIG STORY here at home is the World Bank maintaining its GDP growth forecast for the UAE at 4.6% in 2025 and 4.9% in 2026 in its Global Economic Prospects report (pdf), keeping it unchanged from its previous forecast back in April. The World Bank had previously forecast 4.0% growth for the UAE in 2025 and 4.1% for 2026 back in January.

A few sectors are expected to lead the way for GDP growth: Growth in the UAE and in the GCC at large is expected to be boosted by expanding non-oil activity, namely in the manufacturing, construction, and services sectors, the report reads.

How this compares to others: The forecast matches that of Fitch Ratings’ BMI, and is more optimistic than the IMF’s forecast of 4% growth for 2025 and 5% for 2026 — making it among the fastest growing in the GCC this year. Non-oil GDP was projected to grow by 4.5%, driven by tourism, construction, public spending, and financial services. The UAE Central Bank is even more hopeful, penciling in a forecast of 4.7% GDP growth, while S&P Global had previously forecast 5.1% growth this year.

We have more on the World Bank’s global forecast, and its expectations for the region, in this morning’s Planet Finance, below.

WEATHER- It’s getting hotter and hotter: Dubai is set to see a high of 42°C today, and an overnight low of 31°C. Abu Dhabi will see a high of 37°C and an overnight low of 30°C.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- EU moves to delist UAE from money laundering blacklist: The European Commission has proposed removing the UAE from its list of high-risk jurisdictions for money laundering and terrorism financing, citing alignment with international and Financial Action Task Force (FATF) standards, according to a statement. The decision still requires a sign-off from EU member states and the European Parliament, which blocked the proposal to take the UAE off the list last year.

Diplomatic pressure pays off: The move follows the UAE’s removal from the FATF gray list last year and comes after the two sides launched trade talks, expected to conclude within three to six months. At Davos in January, Economy Minister Abdulla Bin Touq Al Marri criticized the EU for keeping the UAE on its blacklist despite FATF clearance, and said diplomatic efforts to reverse the designation were ongoing.

#2- Adnoc eyes some BP assets: State-owned energy giant Adnoc has been internally studying a potential acquisition of some of British Petroleum’s (BP) assets and has held initial talks with bankers over their acquisition, Bloomberg reports, citing people familiar with the matter. The company is also weighing the option of partnering with another bidder to split certain assets, the people said. The talks remain exploratory, and Adnoc could ultimately decide not to move forward with the bid, the people added.

What’s Adnoc eyeing? The firm is mainly interested in BP’s LNG and gas fields, and not its oil production or refining operations, reflecting the company’s shift towards cleaner energy alternatives. This means that the company is unlikely to pursue a full takeover of BP, despite its market cap declining by a third in just over a year to under USD 80 bn. A potential agreement could be executed through Adnoc’s new international investment arm XRG, the people said. BP’s fuel retailing business is also on the radar.

#3- MGX to invest in OpenAI’s upcoming funding round? OpenAI is reportedly in talks with Abu Dhabi’s MGX and Saudi sovereign wealth fund PIF, along with Indian conglomerate Reliance Industries, over its planned USD 40 bn funding round, The Information reports.

Background: MGX is already an investor in OpenAI, having participated in its USD 6.6 bn funding round last year. It is also contributing to the initial USD 100 bn phase of the Stargate AI infrastructure fund alongside Softbank and Oracle. MGX also backed Elon Musk’s xAI. Over in France, it’s helping build what is set to become Europe’s largest AI data center campus.

#4- Major hospital hack still unresolved: American Hospital Dubai has been targeted by a ransomware group, which claims to have stolen 450 mn patient records, including credit card info and treatment plans, Cyber News reports. The ransomware group was threatening to leak the information on 8 June if demands weren’t met. Patient-facing systems remain offline, with no public update on negotiations, and the hospital has not yet commented.

PSA-

Property payments to count toward credit scores this year: The Etihad Credit Bureau will begin factoring in property-related payments — including rent, service charges, and off-plan installments — into residents’ credit scores “sometime this year,” Gulf News reports, citing statements from Director-General Marwan Ahmad Lutfi. The rollout will start with rental payments, followed by service charges for owners, and finally off-plan payment obligations.

The rationale: “If someone’s not making a payment on their property service charges, it should go into part of their credit behavior. This is how it is in mature consumer markets,” Lutfi said. The bureau is coordinating with land departments and regulators across the Emirates and is also reviewing whether individuals are involved in related rental disputes or court proceedings.

DATA POINT-

Residential property prices in Dubai rose 12% y-o-y in 1Q 2025, driven by a 19.7% surge in villa prices and an 8.5% increase in apartments, according to new data from the Dubai Statistics Center here (pdf) and here (pdf). On a quarterly basis, prices rose 3.3%, with villa prices up 2.4% and apartments gaining 3.8%.

REMEMBER- Fitch Ratings expects a moderate correction of Dubai home prices starting in 2H 2025 after a multi-year rally that saw prices rise roughly 60% since 2022. The agency sees a possible decline of up to 15% concentrated outside prime areas, as new supply — expected to exceed 250k units by 2027 — outpaces population growth. Moody’s and Deloitte also anticipate slowing growth or stabilization.

On the commercial side, prices rose 8.4% y-o-y, according to separate data here (pdf) and here (pdf), led by strong gains in shops (+22.5%) and offices (+11.6%), while hospitality-related assets were mixed; hotel apartment prices rose 3.6%, while hotel room prices dropped 1.0%. On a quarterly basis, the overall commercial index fell 0.8%. Office prices were down 4.8% and hospitality assets fell by 1.1%, though shops saw a 9.7% uptick.

HAPPENING TODAY-

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is in the UAE for a one-day trip to Abu Dhabi, where he will hold high-level talks aimed at deepening economic and strategic ties between Pakistan and the Emirates, according to a statement from Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry. He is accompanied by Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Muhammad Ishaq Dar, along with senior federal ministers. Sharif last visited the UAE in February to meet with the president and attend the World Governments Summit in Dubai.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Our corner of the world is once again topping the global press’ digital front pages with the US pulling embassy staff from the region amid rising tensions with Iran, after nuclear talks between the two nations appeared to break down ahead of the Trump administration’s 60-day deadline to come to an agreement ends today. All non-essential embassy staff in Baghdad were ordered to leave, while non-essential staff and family members were given the green light to leave Bahrain and Kuwait.

“They are being moved out because it could be a dangerous place,” Trump told reporters yesterday in comments that expressed his pessimism that Iran would agree to stop enriching uranium. In reference to repeated threats that the US could bomb Iran if the talks fall apart, Iranian Defence Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh warned that Tehran would respond to any strikes with attacks on US bases in the region.

Escalation fears drove Brent crude prices up over 5% and past the USD 70 a barrel mark during trading, before paring back gains to end the day 4.3% up at USD 69.77 a barrel. Safe-haven asset gold also saw an uptick in investor appetite, rising 1.3% to USD 3385.90 per troy ounce. (Bloomberg | Financial Times | Reuters | Associated Press | Wall Street Journal | Washington Post)

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OIL WATCH-

Opec still expects oil to dominate the energy mix past mid-century: Oil cartel Opec expects global crude consumption to exceed 120 mn bbl/d by 2050 as the world’s population expands and total energy demand rises by 24%, Reuters reports, citing statements by Opec’s Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais at the Global Energy Show in Canada.

Mind the investment gap: Opec pegs the financing bill for energy investments at some USD 17.4 tn over the next 25 years, noting that it has long flagged the dangers of underinvestment given its bullish demand outlook. Al Ghais warned that failing to inject enough capital into upstream projects risks supply shortfalls, volatility, and broader energy security risks.

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