Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the first workweek of a new month. We’re starting off the week with what we like to call a Goldilocks issue — not quite a slow cycle, certainly not an overwhelmingly busy Monday morning.

Leading the news well this morning: Fresh figures out of Abu Dhabi and Dubai point to cooler inflation in both emirates in April, with a steep decline in transport prices in Abu Dhabi helping to keep inflation in check.

ALSO- Mubadala invested in a new USD 1.7 bn convertible bond issuance from popular messaging platform Telegram, along with other major institutional investors such as BlackRock.

^^ We have chapter and verse on these stories and more in this morning’s newswell, below.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- UPDATE– DFM-listed district cooling heavyweight Tabreed and Luxembourg-based PE firm CVC are reportedly in exclusive negotiations to acquire the cooling arm of ADX-listed Multiply Group — Pal Cooling Holding — in a transaction expected to exceed USD 1.1 bn, Reuters reports, citing sources it says are familiar with the matter. Bilateral talks have commenced, the sources said, implying that the consortium is positioned ahead of other bidders including KKR, Investcorp, and ADX-listed Taqa.

#2- TSMC’s UAE chip plant plans are back on the table: Taiwanese chip manufacturer TSMC is again considering a potential multi-bn USD advanced chip factory in the UAE, Bloomberg reports, citing people familiar with the matter. The proposed site will reportedly be a “gigafab” — a complex of six factories — but it’s unlikely that TSMC would break ground on the complex for “several years.”

Behind the scenes: TSMC — a big player in the semiconductor supply chain providing for the likes of Nvidia — has reportedly held multiple meetings with the US’ Middle East Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Abu Dhabi AI fund MGX in recent months, as any facility would require US administration approval. Talks were shelved under the previous administration following US security concerns. They have since resumed under Trump amid growing UAE-US AI ties.

ICYMI- Last September, TSMC and Samsung were both reportedly exploring UAE chip facilities last year, holding early talks with UAE officials. Mubadala was said to be in talks to fund the projects, which faced hurdles from water scarcity to managing geopolitical sensitivities, especially with Washington and Beijing. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman had also reportedly met with UAE figures, including Sheikh Tahnoon, to explore launching a chip venture for his firm in partnership with TSMC.

#3- Emirates plans to continue operating its fleet of more than 100 Airbus A380s until the end of the next decade, Bloomberg quotes the president of the country’s flagship carrier Tim Clark as telling journalists. The carrier will introduce another round of first-class cabin upgrades as part of a USD multi-bn refresh as it waits on the delivery of aircraft to replace the A380, which carries with it high operational costs.

REMEMBER- Emirates began receiving Airbus A350s earlier this year, with up to 15 more set to arrive this summer. The airline is holding off on ordering the A350-1000 due to concerns over engine durability, and it is still awaiting the delayed Boeing 777X, now expected between late 2026 and 1Q 2027, Clark said. It is also retrofitting dozens of Airbus and Boeing aircraft under a USD 5 bn upgrade program, and aims to expand its fleet with 315 new aircraft by 2032 — including 65 A350s, 240 Boeing 777X and 787s, and 10 cargo planes.

ALSO- Clark criticized Boeing and Airbus for prolonged supply delays that are holding back fleet upgrades, Reuters reports, citing comments made by Clark on the sidelines of the IATA airline summit. He highlighted the six-year delay of the 777X delivery.

#4- An undisclosed shareholder in First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB) is offloading a 1% stake (good for 113 mn shares) at a fixed price of AED 15.5 apiece — 3.7% lower than Friday’s close — Bloomberg reports, citing terms it had seen. The lender’s share price rose to a two-year high on Thursday, before shedding 3.2% to settle at AED 16.1 apiece on Friday’s close. The price values the transaction at AED 1.75 bn. Citi is the sole arranger on the transaction.

#5- Adani pulls the plug on its Emaar play: Adani Group’s real estate arm reportedly decided to walk away from a potential acquisition of Emaar Group’s India operations, after the two sides failed to agree on valuation, Bloomberg reports, citing sources it says are familiar with the matter. The business information service said in March that the transaction could see an unlisted Adani unit invest USD 400 mn in equity in Emaar India at an enterprise value of USD 1.4 bn.

#6- UAE customers bear the brunt of heightened container prices: UAE buyers are facing price hikes amid a surge in shipping costs driven by the US-Sino trade war and export scramble, Vice Chairman of Danube Group Anis Sajan told Khaleej Times. “Shipping costs have more than doubled over the past 10 to 15 days. We used to pay between USD 1k to USD 1.4k per container, but now we’re being quoted USD 2k to USD 3k,” Sajan added. The hike will likely impact firms that will not be able to sustain the high costs, indicating that UAE residents are likely to “see prices increase in certain goods, particularly imported building materials and essential items,” Sajan noted.

Traders struggle to find availability: A temporary relaxation of tariffs between the two countries has not only shot up prices, but also tightened container availability. “In some cases, we’re willing to pay double, but we still can’t secure containers,” he added. Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) are particularly vulnerable, with the spike in costs and delays damaging supply chains.

PSAs-

#1- Fuel prices are more or less staying the same in June: The Fuel Price Committee left most fuel prices unchanged from May, with only diesel seeing a slight decline, according to a post on X.

The new breakdown per liter:

  • Super 98 is AED 2.58, unchanged from May;
  • Special 95 is AED 2.47, also unchanged;
  • E-Plus 91 remains at AED 2.39;
  • Diesel is AED 2.45, down from AED 2.52 last month.

#2- RTA to revamp Umm Suqeim Street, expand Al Qudra corridor: Dubai’s Roads and Transport Authority (RTA) will upgrade the section of Umm Suqeim Street between Jumeirah Street and Al Khail Road, according to a Dubai Media Office statement.

Upgrade will include pedestrian walkways, cycling tracks, and direct metro access to nearby communities. Six major roads, including Sheikh Zayed road and Al Khail road, will see upgraded intersections, and the RTA will build four bridges and three tunnels. It will increase vehicle capacity to 16k vehicles per hour and reduce travel time between Jumeirah Street and Al Khail Road from 20 minutes to six.

Al Qudra Road works also in the pipeline: The RTA will also upgrade key intersections along Al Qudra Road by building 2.7k meters of bridges, widening 11.6 km of road, and building 3k of services roads alongside Sheikh Zayed bin Hamdan Al Nahyan street.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Hopes for a breakthrough in Ukraine’s war with Russia faded further yesterday after both sides exchanged some of their most intense strikes of the conflict. Ukraine launched its longest-range drone assault of the war, hitting five Russian airfields — including in Murmansk and deep into Siberia — in an attack Kyiv says damaged more than 40 aircraft. The operation, which involved 117 drones had been in the works for more than a year, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said. Moscow responded with its largest aerial barrage since the war began, firing 472 drones and seven missiles overnight. At least 18 locations were hit, including a military training base in eastern Ukraine that killed 12 soldiers and wounded more than 60.

The strikes come on the eve of direct ceasefire talks in Istanbul, where Ukraine will present a proposal today calling for a full truce monitored by the US, the return of abducted children, and no recognition of Russia’s territorial claims. Despite recent diplomatic overtures, both sides remain far apart on core issues, with Ukrainian officials warning that Moscow has yet to provide its own written peace terms. (Reuters | Associated Press | New York Times | Financial Times)

And in election news, nationalist candidate Karol Nawrocki in Poland’s presidential election is leading with a razor-thin lead over pro-EU Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowsk. A Nawrocki win, if confirmed, could derail current Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s reform agenda, deepen political gridlock, and shift Poland’s stance away from the EU and its support for Ukraine. (Financial Times | Guardian)

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Oil WATCH-

Opec+ will accelerate oil production for the third month in a row, adding 411k barrels per day (bbl / d) in July, according to a statement. That’s a three-month worth of supply increments that will be delivered all at once next month.

The oil group once again cited healthy market fundamentals as the driver behind the decision, adding it provides countries a new possibility to speed up overproduction compensation.

Not everyone is on board, it seems: Russia, Algeria, and Oman reportedly called for a pause in the production increases, citing concerns regarding the speed of unwinding cuts, unnamed delegates told Bloomberg. The big increases drove down oil prices this year, hovering around the USD 65 / bbl level.

The next meeting: Member countries agreed to meet again on 6 July to address production levels for the month of August.

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