Abu Dhabi’s consumer price index fell by 0.1% y-o-y in April 2025, down from a 0.1% rise in March, according to data from the Abu Dhabi Statistics Center. Inflation was at its lowest level in the emirate since November 2024, NBK Senior Economist Issa Hijazeen told EnterpriseAM. On a monthly basis, inflation remained unchanged, after it had recorded a 0.5% drop a month before.

The annual picture: Prices rose at least slightly in the majority of categories in April on an annual basis, led by a 14.4% price jump in the ins. and financial services basket, and a 8.4% rise in recreation and culture. However, this was offset by an 11.2% decline in transport prices, as well as a 0.2% decline in the prices of household furnishings. The drop in transport prices came “in line with the decline in domestic pump fuel prices,” Hijazeen said.

On a monthly basis, the recreation and culture segment saw the sharpest m-o-m rise with a 6.3% increase, followed by restaurants and hotels with a 2.1% rise. Meanwhile, transport prices fell by 3.1% on a monthly basis.

Meanwhile, in Dubai: Dubai’s annual inflation also dipped in April, coming in at 2.31% y-o-y, compared to 2.79% in March, and extending a softening trend since January’s peak of 3.22%. The decline was mostly due to a “meaningfully lower petrol price offsetting still elevated upwards pressure on housing,” Emirates NBD said in its research note.

How the UAE’s overall inflation is expected to play out this year: The IMF now expects the UAE’s inflation figure to come in at 2.1% in 2025, in what is a slight upward revision from the fund’s earlier estimate of 2% inflation for 2025. This puts the IMF’s prediction just above that of the Central Bank of the UAE, which penciled in a 2.0% inflation rate for the country this year. “Overall inflation is expected to remain subdued in 2025 due to the decline in oil prices and the expected gradual decline in global inflation,” Hijazeen said.

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