Good morning, friends, and happy hump day. It’s still relatively quiet on the home front this morning as we inch closer towards the weekend, and towards a very welcome shortened workweek…

It’s official — Eid Al Adha is expected to fall on Friday, 6 June, the UAE’s moon sighting committee confirmed yesterday, meaning our public holiday will most likely begin on Thursday for Arafat Day and last until Sunday, 8 June. We’ll be waiting for confirmation on the public holiday for the private and public sectors from the Human Resources and Emiratization Ministry.

The big story at home today is S&P Global’s forecast for Abu Dhabi’s economy this year — which it sees growing 2.5%, on the back of increased oil production and structural reforms. Plus: Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank eyes second USD 600 mn Formosa bond sale this year, Sports consulting firm Elevate acquires Dubai-based Rise Group, and Adnoc Drilling lands a USD 1.15 bn offshore rig contract.

⛅️WEATHER– Hot days, humid nights: Dubai will see daytime highs of 40°C and overnight lows of 30°C today, while Abu Dhabi is set for a high of 34°C and an overnight low of 29°C. Humidity levels are expected to reach 73% in Dubai and 77% in Abu Dhabi overnight, potentially leading to fog in some inland and coastal areas, according to the National Center of Meteorology (pdf).

FACT CHECK- No, ChatGPT Plus is not gratis for all UAE residents: Recent headlines claiming that all UAE residents now have access to ChatGPT Plus for no charge are inaccurate, Gulf News reports. While OpenAI confirmed a partnership with Abu Dhabi’s G42 last week to roll out Stargate UAE, neither the announcement nor other official statements mention complimentary personal subscriptions to the premium ChatGPT services, despite what’s on the rumor mill.

What’s actually happening: The UAE will become the first country to enable nationwide ChatGPT access, meaning OpenAI tools will be integrated into sectors like government services, healthcare, and education. While residents may interact with ChatGPT through public platforms and through the no-charge version, ChatGPT Plus, which includes GPT-4 access, still comes with a USD 20 per month price tag for now.

IN CONTEXT- Stargate UAE is part of a USD 500 bn AI infrastructure initiative led by OpenAI, G42, Oracle, and SoftBank, and is the first international deployment of Stargate’s infrastructure. The Abu Dhabi-based cluster will deliver 1 GW of computing power, with the first phase expected to go live in 2026.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- State-owned Abu Dhabi National Company Taqa is eyeing acquisitions globally, with a strong focus on the US market, CEO Jasim Husain Thabet told Reuters in an interview. Calling the US a “key market,” Thabet said the company is particularly interested in acquiring a fully integrated utility with generation assets and a “pipeline of growth.” Last year Taqa’s Masdar acquired a 50% stake in one of the largest independent renewable energy producers in the US, Terra-Gen.

IN CONTEXT- Taqa is looking to ramp up its capacity to 150 GW by 2030, up from 56 GW today, with USD 20 bn earmarked for expansion. The UAE is also looking to ramp up energy investments in the US, with investments set to come in at USD 440 bn by 2035, as part of a bigger USD 1.4 tninvestment pledge in the US.

Who’s footing the bill: Taqa closed a USD 1.75 bn bond issuance late last year, but says it may return to the debt market if a major M&A transaction materializes despite not being under immediate pressure to raise more debt.

MEANWHILE- He also confirmed that talks to acquire a stake in Spain’s Naturgy are officially off the table, contradicting a recent Bloomberg report that hinted at renewed negotiations.

#2- Abu Dhabi’s Bin Butti joins race for Italian refiner IP: Abu Dhabi-based diversified conglomerate Bin Butti Group is lining up a binding offer for Italian oil refiner Italiana Petroli (IP), Reuters reports, citing people it says are familiar with the matter. The potential transaction — for which IP tapped UniCredit as its advisor — could value IP at EUR 2.3-2.5 bn.

Bids are expected next week, with other bidders including State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR), along with global commodity traders Gunvor and Glencore. SOCAR is reportedly a frontrunner, while Bin Butti only recently joined talks, Italian outlet la Repubblica reports, citing unnamed sources.

About IP: The refiner has a total refining capacity of 200k barrels a day, and a network of 4.6k fuel stations.

#3- The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (Adia) is reportedly in late-stage discussions to invest in Indian medical device maker Micro Life Sciences, as the company prepares for an IPO, Mint reports, citing sources it says are in the know. Singapore’s Temasek Holdings is also expected to join the current fundraising round, which sources estimate to be in the range of USD 250–300 mn. The IPO is likely to take place within 12 to 18 months.

Bids are expected next month, with investment firms currently individually evaluating the potential investment, one source said. Micro Life’s expected valuation stands at approximately AED 28.6 bn — translating to over 40x its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA).

REMEMBER- Adia has been steadily ramping up its investments in India. Most recently, its subsidiary Platinum Invictus acquired a 5.10% stake in IDFC First Bank for around USD 310 mn (INR 26.2 bn) in April. The sovereign wealth fund also invested USD 750 mn in the debt of infrastructure firm GMR. In 1H 2024, Adia deployed nearly AED 3.67 bn across Indian assets.

#4- DoE taps Presight, AIQ to advance Abu Dhabi’s digital energy infrastructure: The Abu Dhabi Energy Department (DoE) signed an MoU with Presight and AIQ to boost AI integration and digital transformation in the UAE’s energy sector, according to a press release. The agreement includes the development of a new AI-powered control center platform that will provide live data analytics for energy and utility operations across Abu Dhabi. The platform will enable real-time insights and sector-wide performance monitoring, according to a separate filing (pdf).

An “AI Lab-as-a-Service” model will also be developed under the agreement, enabling local energy firms to test, validate, and implement AI solutions across various applications, tailored to use across the energy value chain. The agreement also mandates the creation of the AD e-data hub — a sovereign data infrastructure that will serve as the central repository for all data governed by the DoE and affiliated sector companies.

Background: Adnoc-Presight JV AIQ also partnered with World Wide Technology to advance AI in the global energy sector last year. The collaboration will streamline the transition from concept to large-scale implementation and expand AI innovation through their AI Lab as a Service program.

#5- The UAE agreed to support South Africa’s launch of a national satellite, state news agency Wam quotes South African Deputy Communications and Digital Transformation Minister Mondli Gungubele as saying. No further details were disclosed on the type of support the UAE will offer or the timeline for their cooperation.

REMEMBER-The UAE and South Africa discussed teaming up on infrastructure earlier this year, with ministers from both countries meeting to discuss smart cities, AI-driven solutions, and green building tech. Private Emirati firms have also been on a roll in South Africa, with Amea Power securing energy storage projects and Edge Group set to cooperate with a local firm on vehicle production. Dubai International Chamber also opened a new office in Cape Town earlier this month.

#6- UAE and Philippines eye CEPA signing next month: The UAE and the Philippines plan to sign a trade and economic partnership agreement next month, Philippine news agency PNA reports, citing officials. An agreement would mark the Philippines’ first trade pact in the Middle East, officials confirmed last week.

DATA POINT-

The UAE’s federal export credit company Etihad Credit Ins. (ECI) saw its insured turnover reach AED 16.2 bn in 2024, up 15.7% y-o-y, according to a press release citing its annual report. The federal insurer saw strong demand from UAE exporters across 17 sectors, with over 60% of beneficiaries being SMEs. Key destinations for ECI-backed exports included Saudi Arabia, which accounted for 7% of total exports, alongside MENA countries, India, and Singapore.

PSAs-

#1- Companies won’t be penalized immediately if a UAE national resigns or if a contract is terminated abruptly, Gulf News reports, citing the Human Resources and Emiratisation Ministry (MoHRE). Employers will have a two-month grace period to recruit a replacement before financial penalties kick in. The same grace period applies if a UAE national hired at the start of the year doesn’t complete a full year of work.

ICYMI- Emiratization checks for private sector companies are set to start on 1 July through a digital inspection system. Companies with 50 or more employees must have a workforce of at least 7% Emiratis by 30 June as part of the national mandate to hit 10% by the end of 2026.

#2- No minimum balance hike for bank accounts — for now: The Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE) has issued a circular ordering banks to suspend a planned increase in the minimum balance requirement until further notice, Al Khaleej reports.

REMEMBER-Banks were set to raise the threshold to AED 5k, up from AED 3k, starting 1 June, under updated Central Bank regulations tied to personal loan eligibility. The change would have triggered monthly fees of AED 25-105 for non-compliant accounts. Al Khaleej earlier reported that some banks had already begun charging monthly fees of up to AED 26.25 for failing to meet minimum balance requirements.

What now? No new timeline has been announced, and it remains unclear whether the policy will be revised or scrapped entirely.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- The Arab Media Summit is on its third and final day at the World Trade Center in Dubai. Sessions will discuss public media, strategies for collaboration with the private sector, public communication, and digital platforms. The inaugural Film and Gaming Forum will take place as part of the summit, in a bid to spotlight the region’s creative economy, with a focus on digital storytelling, gamification, and women-led content. The forum will explore shifts in tech integration, new media formats, and talent development.

#2- The Dubai Chamber of Commerce is on a trade mission to the Philippines and Thailand that will last until Friday, Wam reports. The delegation will include representatives of companies operating in sectors like food and beverages, automotive, and electronics, who will participate in meetings and sessions with their counterparts in Thailand and the Philippines to explore collaboration prospects.

#3- The World Utilities Congress is on its second day, and will be running until Thursday at the Adnec Center in Abu Dhabi. The conference will gather global decision-makers, utilities executives, and technology leaders to explore how innovation is shaping the future of energy and water sectors. This year’s edition will spotlight tech-driven solutions for improving energy and water security, and advancing decarbonization.

#4- The Emirates Agriculture Conference and Exhibition 2025 kicks off today and runs until Saturday at the Dubai World Trade Center, bringing together policymakers, researchers, and industry leaders to explore the future of sustainable farming in the UAE. The event will tackle themes including climate-smart agriculture, water scarcity, food security, and agritech innovation. There will also be a market selling locally-made produce and exhibitions for agricultural technology.

#5- The INDEX, Workspace, and The Hotel Show exhibitions are on their second day, and run until tomorrow at the Dubai World Trade Center. Workspace will bring together over 33k visitors and more than 920 exhibitors, will showcase new technologies and interior designs for office spaces and commercial real estate. Index and The Hotel Show showcase innovations in interior design, architecture, and hospitality, and connect buyers with exhibitors.

#6- Dubai Residential REIT begins trading on the DFM today under the ticker DUBAIRESI. Dubai Holding’s REIT raised AED 2.1 bn (c. USD 584 mn) after pricing its IPO at the top of the range at AED 1.10 per unit, giving it a market cap of AED 14.3 bn (c. USD 3.9 bn). The offering was upsized to offer a 15% stake after being more than 26x oversubscribed, with demand exceeding AED 56 bn (c. USD 15 bn). The selling shareholder is subject to a 180-day lock-up period.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

The Trump administration is pressing ahead with its crackdown on international students, halting new visa interviews and preparing to expand social media vetting. The push — which has targeted Harvard and other Ivy League schools with more and more restrictions — is framed as an effort to combat anti-Semitism, following last year’s widespread pro-Palestinian protests in US universities.

ALSO- Trump and friends are doing business as usual: Trump Media, largely owned by US President Trump and the parent company of Truth Social, announced it will raise USD 2.5 bn to invest in BTC, by selling 58 mn shares as convertible bonds. Meanwhile, Elon Musk’s brain-mapping startup Neuralink reportedly raised USD 600 mn in a funding round that put its valuation at USD 9 bn.

CLOSER TO HOME- Germany is considering restricting military exports to Israel, citing concerns about targeting civilians. “The massive military strikes by the Israeli army in the Gaza Strip no longer make any sense to me,” Chancellor Friedrich Merz said yesterday.

The shift in tone from allies of Israel coincides with a chaotic first day for the US andIsrael-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, which saw thousands of Palestinians overrunning aid sites in Rafah, shots fired in the air and private security officials fleeing the scene. The little-known foundation’s operations were widely expected to be disastrous, mired in the last few days by a shady contracting process with Tel Aviv and multiple resignations of senior staff.

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OIL WATCH-

Opec+ moves oil meeting up by a day: Eight Opec+ countries that pledged voluntary production cuts will now meet on 31 May, a day earlier than previously scheduled, Reuters reports, citing sources. The meeting is expected to finalize July output levels, with earlier reports pointing to another potential 411k bbl/d increase. The group had already agreed to accelerate supply hikes in both June and April.

Nothing set in stone yet: Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said the group has yet to formally discuss a production hike, Reuters reported, citing Russian news outlet RIA.

Opec+ is “doing its best to balance the market,” though UAE Energy and Infrastructure Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei warned that rising demand could catch the market off guard and called on oil producers to step up investment, Reuters quotes Al Mazrouei as saying during a forum.

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