Good morning, lovely people, and welcome to the start of what’s set to be a huge week for investment and trade news. US President Donald Trump kickstarts his visit to the region tomorrow in Saudi Arabia, before heading to the UAE and Qatar later in the week, with some USD 1 tn in potential trade and investment pledges on the table.

We have the rundown of what’s at stake during the visit for the Gulf countries — from fast-tracked foreign investments to eased AI exports, defense and security cooperation, and trade agreements.

The big story we have today is IHC, Lunate, and BlackRock’s tie-up for a reins. firm focused on the Middle East and Asia. Plus: The UAE saw FDI projects rise 2.3% y-o-y last year, and Nasdaq-listed crypto exchange Coinbase agreed to acquire Dubai-based crypto options exchange Deribit.

🌤️ WEATHER- Expect fair weather and partly cloudy skies today, with a chance of rainfall forming by the afternoon over the eastern mountains, according to the National Center of Meteorology (pdf). The mercury will hit 40°C in Dubai, before cooling to 30°C overnight. In Abu Dhabi, temperatures will peak at 33°C, with an overnight low of 28°C.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- EU antitrust regulators are expected to decide today on Adnoc’s proposed EUR 14.7 bn acquisition of German chemicals firm Covestro. Reuters previously reported that the transaction is likely to receive unconditional approval, given the lack of competitive overlap between the two companies. If approved, it would mark the largest European company acquisition by a Middle Eastern buyer in 16 years and see Adnoc’s low-carbon unit XRG become Covestro’s majority shareholder.

#2- The Dubai FinTech Summit is happening today and tomorrow at Madinat Jumeriah in Dubai. The two-day event will explore financial sector trends, regulatory compliance, blockchain tech, AI-driven services, and digital banking, while analyzing investment flows, global economic shifts, and cross-border regulations.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed is in Kazakhstan for an official visit that began yesterday, according to an Abu Dhabi Media Office statement. He will meet with President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and senior officials to advance strategic ties and explore partnerships across various sectors.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Seven Dubai government entities have agreed to integrate in-country value (ICV) program criteria into their procurement strategies to boost spending in locally manufactured products, according to Dubai Media Office. The entities in question: Dubai Municipality, Dubai Health, Dubai Police, Roads and Transport Authority (RTA), Dubai Customs, Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (DEWA), and Dubai Airports.

The details: Delivered through the Tasharok procurement platform, the program covers 42 product categories and offers preferential rates to government entities who purchase from local suppliers, Emirati-owned businesses, and firms employing local talent.

REMEMBER- The UAE already has a national ICV program, geared towards national companies, with some AED 48 bn spent by the end of the first half of 2024.

#2- Barclays is overweight on five Adnoc firms: Barclays has initiated coverage on five Adnoc-affiliated listed companies — Adnoc Distribution, Drilling, Gas, Logistics and Services, and Fertiglobe — with a positive “overweight” rating for each, state news agency Wam reports. The bank called investment in Adnoc's ecosystem a “strategic imperative” and set price targets averaging 35% above current trading levels.

The rationale: Barclays cited the companies’ diversified exposure, strong returns outlook, and alignment with Adnoc’s pillars of production growth, decarbonization, and global expansion. The report also highlighted the firms’ high yields, stable cashflows, and readiness to scale with AI and technology adoption.

#3- The opening of Disneyland Abu Dhabi on Yas Island is expected to trigger a 15-25% surge in hotel rates, short-term rentals, and property values in Abu Dhabi, cluster general manager at Al Bandar Rotana and Arjaan Ayman Ashor told Khaleej Times.

The retail and entertainment sectors are also set to benefit, and the effect could spread across the northern emirates as well, GM of Bahi Ajman Palace and Coral Beach Resort Sharjah Iftikhar Hamdani said, emphasizing that family tourists tend to prefer multi-day, premium stays.

Yas Island is expected to see sharp jumps in house leasing prices and Airbnb demand, Abu Dhabi Branch Director at Betterhomes Nada Jaouhar said. An uptick in demand for the Al Reem, Al Raha Beach, and Al Shamkha areas is also expected, as Disneyland will “catalyze long-term capital appreciation,” co-founder of Merlin Real Estate Rohit Bachani said.

REMEMBER- Abu Dhabi’s property market recorded AED 25.3 bn in real estate transactions in 1Q 2025, up 34.5% y-o-y. Yas Island was second only to Saadiyat Island in terms of transaction numbers for the period.

#4- Hungary objects to proposed EU sanction on Lukoil’s Dubai-based unit: Hungary has raised objections to a proposed EU sanctions package that includes Litasco Middle East DMCC, the Dubai-based trading arm of Russian oil giant Lukoil, Bloomberg reports, citing sources familiar with the matter. The pushback by Hungary, which cited energy security concerns, comes as the EU weighs sanctions on Litasco for allegedly supporting Moscow’s shadow fleet operations. This is part of a wider sanctions plan to put pressure on Russia’s energy sector that requires unanimous backing from EU member states to pass later this month.

Why it matters: Last year, Lukoil was the second-largest seller of Russian supplies.

AND- UK joins in on sanctions: Separately, the UK imposed asset freezes on five directors of Coral Energy Group — now rebranded as 2Rivers Group — over its alleged ties to the Russian state, Reuters reports. Britain said the company, formerly headquartered in Dubai, operated in a sector of strategic importance to Russia and supported the country’s energy exports.

PSAs-

#1- UAE carriers are progressively restoring flight operations to Pakistan following the reopening of Pakistani airspace yesterday after a temporary closure due to heightened tensions with India. All airlines advised passengers to check their flight status and notifications.

Emirates has resumed its scheduled services to Pakistani cities, including Karachi, Lahore, Islamabad, Sialkot, and Peshawar, the airline said in a travel update. Air Arabia has also fully resumed its operations to and from Pakistan, according to their travel update, while Flydubai announced the commencement of daily flights to Peshawar starting May 15, 2025, expanding its network within Pakistan, it said in an announcement.

Etihad Airways has reinstated most of its flights between Abu Dhabi and Pakistan. However evening return journeys from Karachi and Islamabad, remain canceled as of today, according to a travel alert.

#2- UAE waives residency fines for Sudanese nationals through year-end: The Federal Authority for Identity, Citizenship, Customs and Port Security (ICP) will exempt Sudanese nationals from fines on expired residency and entry permits starting Monday, 19 May, state news agency Wam reports. The waiver, valid until the end of the year, allows those affected to regularize their status via ICP’s digital platforms.

#3- Event organizers in Abu Dhabi will continue to be exempt from the 10% tourism fee on ticket sales until 31 December, according to a circular from the Department of Culture and Tourism – Abu Dhabi (pdf). The move comes in a bid to strengthen the investment environment in the emirate, as it pushes to boost tourism, with a focus on leisure and entertainment through mega events like concerts and sports events like the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.

#4- The fifth and final bridge of the Sheikh Rashid-Mina Road interchange project is now open, completing the upgrade of Al Shindagha Corridor in Bur Dubai, according to a Dubai Roads and Transport Authority statement.

Fast recap: The full corridor, spanning 13 km and serving 1 mn residents, cut travel time to 12 minutes, down from 80 minutes previously. It includes 15 intersections, 18 km of bridges and tunnels, and a traffic capacity boost from 6.4k to 24k vehicles per hour.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Cooldown is the key word today in the global press, with some of the biggest armed (and trade) conflicts inching closer towards a resolution.

India and Pakistan agreed to an immediate ceasefire over the weekend that quickly turned out to be fragile, as both sides accused each other of violations and reportedly went back to exchanging fire, with multiple explosions heard around Indian-controlled Kashmir. The US-led talks had been hoped to de-escalate the serious confrontation between the nuclear-armed neighbors.

The White House is saying the two-day talks in Switzerland yielded a trade agreement with China, with additional details to be announced today. Chinese officials are saying the two sides reached an “important consensus” in Geneva, and are set to hold an economic dialogue forum.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he’s hoping to meet Vladimir Putin personally in Turkey on Thursday, following a televised statement by the Russian President that saw him call for the first direct talks between the two countries since early 2022 in Istanbul. The statement came after EU officials have joined Ukraine in pressuring for a 30-day ceasefire.

CLOSER TO HOME- Hamas announced yesterday it will release the last living US national held in Gaza, Edan Alexander, as part of efforts to secure a ceasefire, with sources expecting the release within 48 hours. Trump hailed the step on Truth Social as a necessary step to “end this brutal conflict.”

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OIL WATCH-

China refiners look to Adnoc’s Murban: Two independent Chinese refineries have purchased 1 mn barrels of Abu Dhabi’s Murban crude each — at a premium of USD 5 a barrel to August ICE futures, defying habitual reliance on cheap crude shipments from Russia and Iran, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg. The spot buys of Adnoc’s flagship oil — made by China’s Fuhai Group and Shaanxi Yanchang Petroleum — are scheduled for delivery in June. Analysts reportedly attributed the move to the Middle East’s ample supply of crude — resulting in competitive prices — while others pointed to the rising cost of fuel oil alternatives.

India has also been snapping up Murban crude: Indian and Chinese oil refiners were reportedly resorting to Murban earlier this year, when the market was concerned over possible restrictions on Russian and Iranian crude tightening global supply. Indian state refiners bought up to 6 mn barrels, while China’s Sinopec subsidiary Unipec also snapped up barrels.

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