The International Monetary Fund (IMF) maintained its 2025 growth forecast for the UAE at 4% — the highest forecast across the GCC — in its latest World Economic Outlook report (pdf), despite a global backdrop of headwinds following the introduction of US tariffs. The report’s projection matches the fund’s January forecast, with growth expected to accelerate to 5% in 2026.

***The UAE is among a rare few who did not see their GDP growth forecast slashed in the latest outlook update — we have more on the IMF’s global growth forecasts in today’s Planet Finance, below.

Inflation is seen rising to 2.1% in 2025, up from 1.7% in 2024, before easing to 2% in 2026. This is a slight upward revision from the fund’s earlier estimate of 2% inflation for 2025. The current account surplus is forecast at 6.6% of GDP in 2025, a downgrade from the 7.5% projected in January, with a further drop to 6.4% by the end of 2026.

REMEMBER– The IMF sees the UAE’s non-hydrocarbon revenue being a main driver for the country’s economy in 2025, with non-oil GDP projected to grow 4.5% this year. Tourism, construction, public spending, and financial services are expected to post steady gains in upcoming years.

How it stacks up:

  • The World Bank revised down forecast for economic growth in the UAE in January 2025, expecting 4.1% growth for the year;
  • The UAE Central Bank expects a stronger 4.7% GDP growth;
  • S&P Global and Fitch Solutions ’s research unit BMI forecast 5.1% growth this year.

REMEMBER- The UAE’s expanding trade network is expected to act as a buffer against tariff shocks, with stronger ties helping lower barriers and mitigate external risks, according to Emirates NBD research. UAE–US relations are also seen as a stabilizing factor, especially as the UAE has pledged USD 1.4 tn in investments in the US. BMI expects GCC economies to remain shielded from Trump’s tariffs due to strategic and economic factors.

S&P Global agrees: Economic conditions in a number of GCC countries including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar “remain in solid shape” despite the US administration’s trade policies, with S&P Global Market Research only slightly revising downwards its growth outlook for the three countries across 2025 and 2026, Zawya reports, citing a report from S&P. The research unit cites falling oil prices as the main culprit for slower growth, but says UAE and Qatar are expected to withstand an extended period of lower oil prices.

S&P also sees global growth reaching its lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis — barring the pandemic: S&P lowered its annual global real GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 2.2% from 2.5% previously, and down from a forecast that was close to 3% prior to the US elections. The forecast for next year’s real GDP growth was also lowered to 2.4%, down from 2.7% previously. “In both years, projected global growth would be the weakest since the global financial crisis of 2008–09, excluding the COVID-19 pandemic,” S&P wrote.

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