Good morning, wonderful people. It’s another big day for global markets, and a relatively slow day on the domestic front. The big story of the day is still how US President Donald Trump’s tariffs will impact us here at home — plus a handful of M&A updates and an earnings report from Masdar…

BUT FIRST- We here at EnterpriseAM World Headquarters have put our heads together and humbly offer a handful of thoughts in the hope that they might help you clear your heads as we near the end of the week. The rundown:

That feeling you’ve got? The one perhaps best described as “whiplash”? It’s the new normal — maybe for the next few months, perhaps for the coming 3.7 years of the Trump administration.

Things are so volatile that even watching the VIX will give you motion sickness. The VIX, or the so-called “fear index” that tracks expected 30-day volatility in the S&P 500, broke north of 52 earlier this week. It stayed there through much of yesterday before plunging to the 33 level by the close of trading in New York as traders welcomed Trump’s social media post that most countries (with the exception of China) would face only a new 10% baseline tariff for the next 90 days. Most other “reciprocal tariffs” on most countries are now on pause.

In context: The last time the VIX was this high was during covid, when it hit 65. It was at 70 in October 2018 (at the height of the global financial crisis) and 42 during the dotcom meltdown.

So, if volatility is the new normal, how should we feel about business, markets, and the economy in the days and weeks ahead? Here are some thoughts from Dubai, where we’ve spent the week speaking with business leaders from Egypt, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia as well as global fund and portfolio managers.

#1- Get comfortable with being uncomfortable. Volatility could be on the menu for years to come (for at least the duration of the Trump administration). Periods of calm punctuated by a punch to the head could be the new normal. Then again, ours is an adaptable specie: As our friend Mostafa Gad, the global head of IB at EFG Hermes, put it earlier this week, “Markets adapt faster today than they did in the 1980s or 1990s — they have a way of equilibrating and accepting change or adapting to crisis really quickly. What would have once taken 18 months to pass through now takes weeks.”

None of us in this part of the world like volatility. In the GCC, we’re accustomed to pegged exchange rates and (for the most part) slow-but-steady policy formulation. In Egypt, we think of every 1 piaster change in the USD exchange rate as a harbinger of disaster. We need to adapt: Volatility in the USD:EGP exchange rate is a sign the CBE’s FX policy is operating as intended. And a more nimble approach to policymaking in the Gulf will be the order of the day.

#2- From tech to airlines and beyond, there’s a healthy pipeline of IPOs ready for execution in Saudi and the UAE. Expect most to take a “wait and see” attitude for the coming week or 10 days. If the 90-day pause in tariffs helps stabilize global equities markets, many bankers will want to pull the trigger on transactions before the 1H offering window closes. The (so-far) worst-case scenario: It takes a few months more for markets to accept the new normal. In that case, we’re looking at a really busy fall for new offerings.

#3- Share-based M&A is very much on the table and it might be a good time for private equity players to close transactions. Some PE players think valuations have been stubbornly high for a while, and the combination of lower comparables after the recent market slump and higher volatility could push serious buyers and sellers to transact *now*. The risk: Some sellers will walk away from prices they think are just too low. Expect share-based M&A to close with fewer hiccups than anything involving the commitment of cash. The wisdom of Warren Buffett’s move to cash earlier this year is now clear to all.

#4- The UAE looks better than ever. Businesses in the UAE have quietly trimmed staff and other expenses in recent weeks to optimize their cost base in a year in which they expect volatility. But the economy’s fundamentals are strong and have been bolstered by regulatory reforms brought in post-covid. That real estate correction we’ve been expecting for two years now? Yeah, there’s lot of new inventory coming onto the market this fall, but we feel a little like we’ve been waiting for Godot on that front…

#6- Everyone will be watching the price of oil — the Saudis and Emiratis from a state revenues perspective, the Egyptians from the expenses side of the ledger. The emerging consensus is that even if Trump cools it on tariffs, we’re looking at a slowdown in trade and a bit less demand for oil than forecast at the start of 2025. Oil in the 40s? Probably not. But something in the 50s? Possible — and with it, questions about financing the deficit and the pace of gigaprojects in KSA in particular.

#7- Diversification of trade ties is going to be key for Mideast governments. From Egypt to the UAE and Saudi, all of us would have faced a 10% rate at the same time as others faced much sharper US tariffs, signalling we’re in good stead with The Donald. Regardless of what happens with tariffs 90 days from now, deeper integration with a wider variety of trading partners will be the order of the day.

THE WILDCARD- The Donald is inbound to the Gulf in about a month’s time. US Energy Secretary Christopher Wright is on a nearly two-week visit to our corner of the world, laying the groundwork for Trump to land in the UAE, Saudi, and Qatar some time in mid-May. (Dates for the visit, which hasn’t been confirmed, are still uncertain.)

☀️WEATHER- It’s another warm and sunny spring day in Dubai, with temperatures peaking at 35°C before cooling to 25°C overnight, while in Abu Dhabi, the mercury peaks at 28°C, with an overnight low of 22°C.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- It’s the fourth and final day of the EFG Hermes One on One here in Dubai. The One on One is the largest investor conference focused on emerging markets — and it’s difficult to imagine a more opportune time for companies and equity investors to chew the fat than now: Global markets are roiling in the wake of US President Donald Trump’s bid to reshape the post-Second World War economic order. Fund managers representing more than 250 global institutions are gathering for the event to meet with top execs from 220 companies spanning 12 countries. Among the top UAE firms attending:

  • ADNOC Group (and its listed units)
  • Aldar Properties
  • Alef Education
  • Alpha Dhabi
  • Amanat
  • e&
  • Emaar Properties
  • FAB
  • Fertiglobe
  • Lulu
  • Lunate
  • Parkin
  • Pure Health
  • RAK Bank
  • Taaleem
  • Talabat

#2- US Energy Secretary Chris Wright plans to discuss strengthening cooperation across various sectors with UAE leaders during his visit to the UAE, state news agency Wam reports. Wright will meet leaders from the energy, AI, and investment sectors, including representatives from ADNOC, Masdar, Mubadala, MGX, XRG, and Presight. Wright will also co-host a Future Energy Leaders Majlis, bringing together Emirati and American youth leaders to foster collaboration in energy innovation.

#3- The Geo-Spatial Week is going on in Dubai at the Mohammed bin Rashid Space Center, kicking off earlier this week and running until tomorrow. The week-long event will welcome experts in photogrammetry, remote sensing, and spatial sciences.

#4- AWS GenAI Loft Dubai 2025 is on its penultimate day at Dubai International Financial Centre’s (DIFC) Innovation One building. The five-day event will see industry startups, business leaders, investors, developers, and AI enthusiasts attend workshops and lectures on generative AI technologies and their practical applications across industries.

DATA POINTS-

#1- Gross bank assets in the UAE rose 0.1% m-o-m to reach AED 4.6 tn in January 2025, according to the Central Bank of the UAE’s (CBUAE) latest monetary and banking developments report (pdf).

Gross credit increased 0.2% compared to December, coming in at AED 2.2 tn, driven by an AED 1.7 bn rise in foreign credit, which offset a slight AED 0.3 bn decline in domestic credit. Within domestic credit, lending to public sector government-related entities fell 1.1%, and non-banking financial institutions saw a 3.2% drop, while credit to both the government and private sector rose 0.2%.

Total bank deposits declined 0.2% m-o-m to AED 2.8 tn, as non-resident deposits dropped 2.6%, while resident deposits remained flat at AED 2.6 tn. Within resident deposits, private sector deposits grew 1.2%, and government sector deposits rose 0.8%, but this was outweighed by a 6% decline in government-related entities, and a sharp 14.5% drop in non-banking financial institutions deposits.

#2-Dubai is now among the top 20 wealthiest cities globally after the total number of m’naires in the emirate reached 81.2k at the end of 2024, Henley and Partners said in a press release, citing their World’s Wealthiest Cities Report 2025. Dubai is currently also home to 237 centi-m’naires and 20 b’naires, while Abu Dhabi counted 17.8k m’naires, 75 centi-m’naires, and 8 b’naires among its residences at the end of last year.

Behind the growth: Dubai’s m’naire population has increased by 102% in the past decade and Abu Dhabi saw an 80% uptick, which has been attributed to the Emirates offering robust financial infrastructure, investment migration programs, alongside “lifestyle dividends.”

Looking ahead: Both emirates have been flagged as cities with high growth potential — with Dubai in particular identified as a fast growing wealth hub — and are set to see their centi-m’naire populations double in the next decade.

#3- Dubaiand Abu Dhabi have entered the top five on the Smart City Index for the first time, with Dubai rising to fourth place, up from 12th place last year, and Abu Dhabi following in fifth, after it ranked in 10th place in 2024, according to the International Institute for Management Development.

How the rankings work: The index assessed 141 cities on how urban technology and infrastructure affects key quality of life indicators like health and safety, mobility, prospects, activities, and governance. For both cities, residents said affordable housing and work prospects were priority areas.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Some 47 companies from 17 countries have expressed interest in developing the seventh phase of the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park under an Independent Power Producer (IPP) model, according to a statement. Dewa invited expressions of interest for the project in February, which is set to bring the total solar park capacity to 7.26 GW.

REMEMBER- The seventh phase will include 1.6 GW of solar capacity with 1 GW battery energy storage system and will be commissioned between 2027 and 2029. The project positions Dewa to exceed its 5 GW target for the solar park ahead of schedule, with the target initially being 2030.

#2- The Endowments and Minors’ Funds Management Authority (Awqaf Abu Dhabi) is exploring investments in data centers, its Director General Fahad Al Qassim told The National. This investment plan serves as a part of a broader strategy to pour capital into defensive sectors to protect the authority’s assets from global economic volatility.

Defensive sectors? Defensive sectors are industries known for generating consistent dividends and earnings regardless of economic conditions. These typically include utilities, consumer staples (like food and personal care), and healthcare.

Awqaf Abu Dhabi is pursuing a diversified asset allocation strategy, with a portion of capital earmarked for emerging technologies—particularly artificial intelligence (AI). The growing importance of data centers in supporting AI and blockchain technologies has prompted the authority to view them as utility-like assets with the potential to deliver stable, long-term returns, Al Qassim noted.

In addition to technology, Awqaf Abu Dhabi is also eyeing investments in healthcare, banking, finance, services, education, and food security—sectors deemed essential and future-resilient.

REMEMBER- The authority recently launched Awqaf Capital, an investment initiative focused on deploying capital across diverse asset classes, with a special emphasis on future-ready sectors. The goal: strong financial returns coupled with social impact—including educational scholarships, healthcare services, and social welfare programs.

#3- Crescent Petroleum completed the first phase of its 3D seismic survey at the Khashim al Ahmer gas field in Iraq’s Diyala Governorate, according to a press release. The survey provided key insights for the placement of appraisal wells, with drilling expected later this year.

The project’s first phase involves investments of USD 200-250 mn for facility construction, followed by further phases with over USD 1 bn in investments for additional drilling and infrastructure development. The project aims to reduce fuel costs and enhance electricity provision in Iraq.

REMEMBER- The Iraqi Oil Ministry ministry activated three 20-year agreements with the oil and gas company in February 2023, granting the UAE-based firm rights to develop oil and natural gas fields in Iraq’s Basra and Diyala provinces, located in northeastern Baghdad. It also awarded Crescent Petroleum the rights to two oil fields in Iraq’s fifth oil and gas licensing round in November 2023.

Other Iraqi projects in the pipeline: UAE-based Dana Gas and Crescent Petroleum are working on expanding Iraq’s Khor Mor gas field with USD 1 bn in investments. The project, which will boost capacity at the gas field by 50%, could be completed as early as 1Q 2026.

#3- The UAE’s Federal Tax Authority launched the Moather Package to help content creators and influencers meet tax requirements, Khaleej Times reports. It includes accounting tools to simplify corporate tax and VAT compliance. 

PSAs-

#1- Abu Dhabi Mobility is reducing the speed limits on two major roads starting Monday, 14 April to improve road safety, it said in a post on X. Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed International Road (E11) will see its speed limit capped at 140 km/h instead of 160 km/h, and top speeds on the Abu Dhabi-Sweihan Road (E20) will be lowered from 120 km/h to 100 km/h.

#2- Etihad Airways is set to launch five-weekly direct flights from Zayed International Airport (AUH) to Bacha Khan International Airport (PEW) in Pakistan, starting 29 September, according to a statement. The route will shift to daily departure effective from 22 November. The airline also plans to bump up the number of its flights to Karachi to 17 weekly services effective 1 October.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Global investors are getting whiplash after US President Donald Trump’s decision to freeze reciprocal tariffs on most countries for 90 days triggered a historic market rally, helping Wall Street stocks recover tns of USDs in losses.

Trump paused tariffs on most countries and hiked China’s tariff to 125%, up from 104%, after the country had pushed ahead with a retaliatory tariff of 84% on US goods. The blanket 10% tariff on most countries, which came in effect over the weekend, still applies, as do steel and aluminum and automaker levies. The reprieve came in response to over 75 countries reaching out for negotiations with the US, according to Trump.

The Nasdaq notched its best day in 24 years, while the S&P 500 soared nearly 10%. Trump had taken to Truth earlier in the day to say it’s “A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!,” in reference to the stock market. US Treasuries also gained more than 4% as traders pared expectations for US Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, after a pullback had sent longer-term yields soaring.

Oil prices also gained 4%, climbing from a four-year low earlier, with Brent futures up to USD 65.48 a barrel, and West Texas Intermediate futures up nearly 5% at USD 62.35. (Reuters)

The about-turn and the market rally are getting coverage everywhere: Bloomberg | Reuters | Financial Times | WSJ | CNBC

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The Dubai Woodshowwill be running from Monday, 14 April through to Wednesday, 16 April at the Dubai World Trade Center. The three-day event will welcome more than 680 international exhibitors from 132 countries, showcasing the latest trends and technologies in the global wood and woodworking machinery sector.

The IPS Congress will be held from Monday, 14 April until Wednesday, 16 April at the Dubai World Trade Center. The event brings together stakeholders from the global real estate and investment scene to showcase projects, engage in discussions, and network. This year’s edition will also cover the future of urban planning, design, and technology through IPS Future Cities, IPS Design, IPS Services, and IPS PropTech Startups.

Solana Economic Zone will take place between Monday, 14 April and Saturday, 26 April in Dubai. The two-week event will focus on blockchain innovation, providing a platform for founders, builders, and investors looking to set up crypto and blockchain businesses in Dubai.

The Abu Dhabi Global Health Week is running from Tuesday, 15 April until Thursday, 17 April at the Adnec Center in Abu Dhabi. The event will gather global and regional stakeholders to promote collaboration and investment in healthcare solutions. Key topics include health longevity, health system resilience, healthtech and AI, and life sciences.

The Global Islamic FinTech Forum is happening on Tuesday, 15 April at the Dusit Thani Hotel in Dubai. Experts, investors, and regulators will discuss developments in shariah-compliant financial technology, digital payments, peer-to-peer lending, takaful, and blockchain-based financial services.

The FastBull Finance Summit will take place on Wednesday, 16 April and Thursday, 17 April at the Coca Cola Arena in Dubai. The event will cover global finance, the foreign exchange market, and blockchain financial technology, with economist Jim Rogers delivering a keynote speech.

Commvault’s Shift Roadshow event will take place on Thursday, 17 April at Dubai’s Museum of The Future, gathering cyber-resilience leaders, IT experts, and C-suite executives to discuss how businesses can safeguard against the growing threat of AI-driven cyber attacks. Attendees can expect keynote sessions, expert panels and insights from industry giants like Microsoft, AWS, and IDC.

The IndianBusiness and Professional Council’s (IBPC) Annual Conference will be held on Friday, 25 April in Dubai, Al Bayan reports. The event will focus on strengthening UAE-India relations and exploring potential investments for businesses in the UAE. It will also cover topics including the digital economy, cross-border transactions using local currencies to boost trade efficiency, and attracting investment in tourism and sustainable development.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

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