Good morning from Dubai, friends, where we have another packed issue for you informed by more than a dozen conversations with global fund and portfolio managers, analysts, and top company execs attending the EFG Hermes One on One.

The Trump administration’s trade turmoil has made for an interesting One on One so far, but the overall feeling here is one of “cautious optimism” — at least when it comes to the impact on the UAE economy. What it all means for financial markets is a more nuanced (and much less settled) question.

The big takeaways here for regional markets based on our conversations yesterday and last night:

#1- Nobody is talking about a disaster scenario for regional IPO and M&A markets. The prevailing mood right now is “let’s wait and see where this settles.” The (so-far) worst case anyone wanted to put on the table: Some IPOs may slip to the fall window from spring. M&As, meanwhile, seem even less likely to be scuppered by the market’s ongoing temper tantrum.

#2- Everyone feels pretty good about where the UAE sits right now. Post-covid reforms including a more relaxed visa regime, a big expansion of major global financial services players setting up shop in the UAE (particularly in Abu Dhabi), the opening of new tourist markets, big inflows of HNWI individuals, and a surge in entrepreneurism will all provide shock absorbers for the economy. Nobody is talking about a repeat of 2008. Could we see an uptick in inflation? Maybe.

#3- 10% is the “new zero” when it comes to trade, and all of us in the Mideast (here in the Emirates, but also in Saudi Arabia and Egypt) could benefit from that. Egypt probably gets the biggest bump, putting it in a position to benefit from inward investment in manufacturing and services if (a) policymakers stay the course with a floating FX rate and (b) there’s no return to the status quo ante bellum on trade in the next 6-12 months.

#4- Markets have a way of quickly equilibrating. One of the smartest investment bankers we know made the point yesterday that from the dotcom meltdown and the global financial crisis, to covid-19 and fallout from the war in Ukraine, financial markets adapt to crises in a fraction of the time they took in the 1970s, 1980s, or even 1990s. No promises, of course, but … is there any reason to think that this time will be different? (Other than, of course, the lack of policy clarity emanating from DC…)

We explore all of this and more in this morning’s news well, below, with coverage of the EFG Hermes One on One Live Poll as well as remarks on stage from senior Dubai officials. We’ll have more for you throughout the week — the One on One wraps on Thursday.

Companies from our part of the world are the stars of the show. Among the top UAE firms attending:

  • ADNOC Group (and its listed units)
  • Aldar Properties
  • Alef Education
  • Alpha Dhabi
  • Amanat
  • e&
  • Emaar Properties
  • FAB
  • Fertiglobe
  • Lulu
  • Lunate
  • Parkin
  • Pure Health
  • RAK Bank
  • Taaleem
  • Talabat

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Tariffs — and the global market turmoil they have sparked — are still the dominant theme across global business pages, though we also have news of impending US-Iran nuclear talks getting attention.

Markets continued to reel yesterday from the uncertainty around tariffs, with the S&P 500 entering the bear market briefly as it fell 20% from its peak — though stocks later saw a seven-minute rally as rumors on social media of a potential 90-day pause on tariffs circulated. The rally helped recover USD 2.5 tn in equity value, though that was later erased during the day. The story is everywhere in the global business press: CNBC | Reuters | WSJ

Trump threatened an additional 50% tariff on China after the country slapped a 34% retaliatory tariff on American imports, vowing to hike tariffs if they don’t backtrack on their countertariff by tomorrow midnight. The additional levy would bring total tariffs on Chinese imports to 120%. He also confirmed there would be no pause on tariffs, but said he would be open to negotiations with some countries. (FT | Bloomberg | Reuters)

The European Commission is also considering a retaliatory tariff of 25% on a range of US goods in response to President Donald Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminium, Reuters reports, citing a document it had seen.

MEANWHILE- Trump said the US and Iran will begin direct talks on Iran’s nuclear program on Saturday, saying if they don’t go well, Iran could be in “grave danger.” Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said that indirect high-level talks would be held in Oman in an X post. (Reuters | Bloomberg)

THE BIG STORY AT HOME today, other than the takeaways from investors at the conference, is non-oil foreign trade surpassing AED 2.8 tn in 2024, and an 8.3% growth in outstanding issuances of sukuk and bonds in 1Q 2025.

☀️WEATHER- It’s another warm day today, with the mercury peaking at 36°C in Dubai, before cooling to 24°C overnight, according to our favorite weather app. Over in Abu Dhabi, temperatures will reach 30°C before cooling to 24°C overnight.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- Dubai Crown Prince Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed is in India today for an official visit to strengthen bilateral ties and expand cooperation across strategic sectors, state news agency Wam reports. He is leading a high-level delegation holding talks with senior Indian officials on trade, aviation, innovation, AI, and investment. The delegation includes Economy Minister Abdulla bin Touq Al Marri, AI Minister Omar Al Olama, and other senior government and economic leaders.

#2- The Geo-Spatial Week is underway in Dubai at the Mohammed bin Rashid Space Center, kicking off earlier this week and running until 11 April. The week-long event will welcome experts in photogrammetry, remote sensing, and spatial sciences.

#3- The AIM Congress 2025 kicked off yesterday and runs through to Wednesday at the Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Center. The event will bring together senior executives, government officials, and global investors to foster investment collaboration to drive global economic development. Attendees can expect forums, panel discussions, workshops, and a startup competition, Wam reports.

#4- Middle East Energy is on its second day and run through to Wednesday at the Dubai World Trade Center. The exhibition and conference brings together industry leaders, and energy professionals to discuss the energy transition, sustainability practices, innovations in power generation, renewable energy, and energy efficiency.

#5- The World Local Production Forum is also on its second day and runs until Wednesday at the Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Center. The World Health Organization-backed event will bring together global leaders to discuss localized, sustainable, and diversified medicine production, and strategies to enhance access to quality assured health products.

#6- The Fujairah Bunkering and Fuel Oil Forum (FUJCON 2025) is on its second day and runs through Wednesday at DoubleTree by Hilton Fujairah. Organized by S&P Global Commodity Insights, in collaboration with the Fujairah government, the Port of Fujairah, and the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone, the event will bring together energy leaders to discuss geopolitical and decarbonization impacts on shipping and bunkering, fuel quality, market trends, and technological advancements.

#7- AWS GenAI Loft Dubai 2025 is on its second day and runs through to Friday, 11 April at Dubai International Financial Centre’s (DIFC) Innovation One building. The five-day event will see industry startups, business leaders, investors, developers, and AI enthusiasts attend workshops and lectures on generative AI technologies and their practical applications across industries.

#8- The two-day World Crisis and Emergency Management Summit kicks off today in Abu Dhabi, state news agency Wam reports. Under the theme Together Towards Building Global Resilience, the event will bring together global leaders to discuss improving international cooperation in crisis management, emergency planning, and risk prediction. The event will also feature two exhibitions — Crisis Management Technologies and Generation Readiness — to showcase new sector-specific technological tools.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright will visit the UAE tomorrow as part of a two-week Middle East tour that will also take him to Saudi Arabia and Qatar, Reuters reports, citing a source close to the matter. Wright is set to visit Al Barakah Nuclear Power Plant during his visit, as well as discuss global supply of oil and the UAE’s investments in the US, according to the source.

REMEMBER- The UAE last month pledged a 10-year USD 1.4 tn investment framework in AI infrastructure, semiconductors, energy, and manufacturing, in the US.

DATA POINTS-

#1- UAE the world leader in fibre-to-home network coverage at 99.5%: The UAE has set a new global benchmark in fibre-to-the-home (FTTH) network coverage, reaching 99.5%, according to the FTTH Council Europe’s 2024 report (pdf). South Korea took the second spot with 96.6%, while China recorded 93.6% coverage.

Leading the charge is e& UAE, which now provides high-speed fibre connectivity to 2.88 mn homes via a 14.5 mn km fibre-optic infrastructure, helping the Emirates maintain its top global ranking since 2016, Wam reports.

#2- Hotels in the UAE generated AED 45 bn in revenues, up 3% y-o-y, state news agency Wam reports, citing Economy Minister Abdulla bin Touq Al Marri. Some 30.8 mn hotel guests visited the Emirates, up 9.5% y-o-y. This amounts to some 77% of the National Tourism Strategy’s target of attracting 40 mn guests annually by 2031.

Sixteen new openings brought the number of hotels to 1.3k, while the total number of hotel rooms grew 3% to reach 217k. Occupancy rates averaged 78%, placing the UAE among the top-performing markets globally and regionally.

#2- 2024 saw a 20.7% increase y-o-y in Indian business licenses operating in the Emirates, bringing the total to 245k, state news agency Wam reports. So far this year, 10.7k new licenses were issued to Indian firms in 1Q 2025.

#3- The Central Bank of the UAE issued AED 124.7 mn in financial penalties against 55 entities in 2024, according to its annual report (pdf). These penalties included fines of AED 85.1 mn on 21 exchange houses, AED 35.9 mn on 11 banks, and AED 3.3 mn on 12 ins. Firms — and came in response to breaches of Central Bank law, ins. law, cabinet resolutions, standards, regulations, and guidance notices related to various areas, including Emiratization requirements.

PSA-

New jobs under wage protection system: The Human Resources and Emiratization Ministry (MOHRE) has mandated the Wage Protection System (WPS) for five domestic worker professions, with optional enrollment for others, effective 1 April, according to a statement (pdf) and an accompanying social media post. The system aims to formalize wage payments and improve protection for domestic workers.

Which categories? Private trainers, private teachers, home caregivers, private representatives, and private agricultural engineers now fall under the WPS remit. Enrolment is still optional for another 14 professions, including housekeepers, nannies, cooks, and drivers.

Payment requirements: Wages must be paid in AED via cash-transfer or through approved electronic transfer channels within 10 working days of the due date — the first day of the month following the contract period — through CBUAE-authorized institutions.

Penalties and exemptions: Non-compliant employers face fines for a one-month delay and suspension after two months. Exemptions apply to cases involving active disputes, absconding, or new hires.

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The Indian Business and Professional Council’s (IBPC) Annual Conference will be held on Friday, 25 April in Dubai, Al Bayan reports. The event will focus on strengthening UAE-India relations and exploring potential investments for businesses in the UAE. It will also cover topics including the digital economy, cross-border transactions using local currencies to boost trade efficiency, and attracting investment in tourism and sustainable development.

TheBTC MENA Conference will be taking place on Monday, 8 and Tuesday, 9 December at the Adnec Center in Abu Dhabi. The second edition of the two-day event connects global and Middle Eastern leaders, investors, and developers to discuss Bitcoin’s evolving role, adoption barriers, and technological innovations in the region.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

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