EFG Hermes Research’s annual One-on-One live poll — the largest we know of in frontier and emerging markets — could not have come at a more critical juncture this year. The poll this time around was accompanied by plenty of chatter — and audible gasps at most of the results — as attendees of the largest investor conference focused on emerging markets attempted to look through the crystal ball and make sense of the events of the past week and how they will impact key indicators of investor sentiment and economic growth. Over 400 attendees had 10 seconds to respond to each of 10 questions.

The topic on everyone’s minds — the US’ trade war — was clearly causing anxiety, with most of the attendees (58%) expecting the trade war to escalate further from here, while 42% expect no further escalation.

The impact of the trade war is already trickling down to oil prices, prompting nearly half (48%) of respondents to project an average price of USD 70 per bbl for oil this year. Some 38% were even more pessimistic, forecasting a price of USD 60 / bbl or less. Oil prices have taken a hit over the past week since the tariffs were announced, with Brent crude reaching a low of USD 63 at one point.

Gold prices, on the other hand, are expected to rise — 79% of attendees expect it to end the year higher, as investors rush to haven assets amid rising uncertainty.

The majority of respondents also expect the S&P 500 to have a correction year — understandable given the sell-off that has taken place since the announcement of the tariffs, wiping tns of USDs in stock value and bringing it dangerously close to bear market territory. The S&P 500 ended yesterday down 0.2%, and 17.6% below its February peak.

SOUND SMART- A bear market happens when stocks fall 20% from their peak.

The one thing that hasn’t changed much since the tariffs — expectations of the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts this year. The majority of respondents — 46% — still see two cuts of 25 bps taking place this year, in line with what most Fed policymakers had penciled in earlier.

Zooming in on the Middle East, most (39%) of the attendees still see the Saudi stock market delivering the best performance in USD terms — same as last year — while 22% chose Dubai. Egypt was third, with 18% of respondents optimistic about the stock exchange’s USD performance.

Geopolitics was identified as the biggest risk for MENA markets, with 55% of respondents choosing it over oil prices and reform fatigue. Oil prices came in at a close second, with 41% of respondents seeing it as a risky factor.

OTHER KEY TAKEAWAYS:

  • 28% of respondents see banks and financials performing the best among other sectors in the region;
  • The UAE and Saudi Arabia were very close in terms of expectations of strong future returns in the property market, with the former getting 41% of votes and the latter getting 39%;
  • Some 40% see Dubai real estate prices ending the year higher.

Tap or click here (pdf) to see the full results.

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