Good morning, lovely people, and happy hump day. We have another packed issue for you this morning, with news of — yet another — multi-bn EUR overseas investment, this time in Montenegro, as well as several M&A updates, and rumors of a potential IPO for renewables giant Masdar. Let’s dive in.

So, when do we eat? Maghrib is at 6:36pm today in Dubai and 6:40pm in Abu Dhabi. You’ll have until fajr prayers at 4:58am in Dubai and 5:02am in Abu Dhabi tomorrow to finish your suhoor.

WEATHER- Expect another dusty, windy day, though warmer and more humid, according to our favorite weather app and the National Center of Meteorology’s forecast (pdf). Dubai will see the mercury hit 29°C, with an overnight low of 20°C, while temperatures will hit 23°C in Abu Dhabi, with an overnight low of 20°C.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Kenya’s IMF shortfall may delay USD 1.5 bn UAE loan: Kenya’s failure to meet key International Monetary Fund (IMF) targets has put a USD 1.5 bn funding package from the UAE — expected in 1H 2025 — at risk of delay, Bloomberg reports, citing S&P Global Ratings. The missed IMF disbursement also jeopardizes a USD 800 mn World Bank loan, “since IMF funding often serves as a catalyst for other official and private flows,” S&P said.

REFRESHER- The UAE planned to disburse a USD 1.5 bn loan to Kenya in a single payment by the end of February — revising earlier plans to stagger the loan in order to comply with the IMF’s USD 1.3 bn cap on commercial borrowing for the fiscal year. Kenya sought financing from the UAE last year to reduce reliance on eurobonds, bilateral lenders like China, and multilateral institutions.

However, the funding isn’t entirely off the table: Kenya is now pursuing a new IMF-backed program, which could roll over USD 800 mn left unused from the previous arrangement, Finance Minister John Mbadi told Reuters. He downplayed any tensions with the IMF, attributing the scrapped final review to time constraints rather than missed targets.

IN THE MEANTIME- More UAE-Kenya cooperation ahead? State Minister Sheikh Shakhbout bin Nahyan Al Nahyan and Investment Minister Mohammed bin Hassan Al Suwaidi met with Kenyan President William Ruto in Nairobi to explore windows for strengthening bilateral relations, Wam reports. The talks focused on expanding cooperation across priority sectors identified in their trade and investment agreement signed in January, including trade, renewable energy, technology, agriculture, health, logistics, and fintech.

#2- Fortaleza seeks ADFD support for tourism and infrastructure projects: Abu Dhabi Fund for Development (ADFD) Director-General Muhammad Saif Al Suwaidi met with Fortaleza Mayor Evandro Leitão in Abu Dhabi to explore potential investments in the Brazilian city, with a focus on tourism and infrastructure, the Brazil-Arab News Agency reports. The meeting follows earlier talks with the UAE ambassador in Brazil and highlighted Fortaleza’s development potential across key sectors. ADFD expressed interest in infrastructure projects, while Brazilian officials underscored Ceará state’s expanding tourism industry, growing air connectivity, and emerging tech hubs.

#3- Abu Dhabi Mobility expands autonomous transport after hitting 30k driverless trips: Abu Dhabi Mobility has completed 30k autonomous vehicle trips covering over 430k km and is now expanding the service to include access roads to and from Zayed International Airport, according to a press release. The rollout builds on earlier pilot phases in Yas and Saadiyat Islands and is part of a broader plan to scale up smart mobility solutions across the emirate.

The rollout, which is being carried out in partnership with Space 42 and Uber, aims to have autonomous vehicles account for 25% of all trips by 2040, while also cutting carbon emissions by 15% and road accidents by 18%. No safety incidents have been recorded to date.

To support the sector’s growth, Abu Dhabi Mobility is developing regulatory frameworks, ins. models, and cybersecurity protocols for AV integration, while working to boost public awareness and encourage adoption.

ICYMI- Abu Dhabi has been ramping up efforts to advance its smart mobility ecosystem. In 2023, it set up a Smart and Autonomous Vehicles Industry cluster — SAVI — in Masdar City to boost EV and smart transport development. In April 2024 and in January of this year, Masdar City also held trials for self-driving vehicles as part of its sustainable transport push.

#4- Ras Al Khaimah International Airport is finalizing plans for a new passenger terminal in collaboration with a consulting firm, Al Bayan reports, without disclosing further details on the terminal’s projected size or capacity. An international tender has also been launched for the construction of a private aviation terminal.

#5- Sharjah’s new business district, Al Marwan Group’s District 11, is set for launch in 2Q 2025, Al Bayan reports. The project is located on Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Road (E311), five minutes from Sharjah International Airport and University City. District 11 will cater to multinationals, SMEs, and startups expanding in the UAE and MENA.

The details: Announced in January at Acres, the project integrates sustainability and smart technologies, featuring eco-friendly cooling systems, EV charging stations, smart office automation, and shared meeting spaces. It will house more than 200 commercial units, fitness clubs, childcare facilities, and a business hotel for executives.

#6- Adia-backed Ardonagh eyes USD 2.5 bn funding raise: Abu Dhabi Investment Authority-backed UK ins. broker Ardonagh Group is closing in on raising up to USD 2.5 bn from investors, Bloomberg reports, citing unnamed sources with knowledge of the matter. The funds would go towards expansion and potential acquisitions, and a final agreement on the raised capital is expected this summer.

ICMYI- Ardonagh, which recently secured Stone Point Capital as an investor bringing its valuation to USD 14 bn, was also the targeted candidate for Mubadala to offload its struggling ins. tech startup Wefox to last summer, but an agreement fell through after the German startup rejected it.

DATA POINTS-

#1- UAE ranked second-safest country in the world for 2025: The UAE has been ranked the second-safest country globally for 2025, according to a new report by global statistics platform Numbeo. The country earned a safety score of 84.5 out of 100, placing just behind Andorra (84.7) and ahead of Qatar (84.2), Taiwan (82.9), and Oman (81.7). Numbeo’s safety index considers factors such as crime rates, perceived safety during the day and night, and levels of violent and property crime.

#2- Abu Dhabi’s annual inflation rose 0.5% y-o-y in 2024, after staying flat the previous year, according to data (pdf) released by the Abu Dhabi Statistics Center.

The main culprits: Prices of housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels — the largest component of the basket of goods and services — rose by 0.6% y-o-y, while food and beverage prices also increased by 1.4% on an annual basis. The prices of clothing and footwear saw the largest spike during the year, growing by 4.6% y-o-y. This was offset by a 2.8% decline in transport prices y-o-y, as well as a 0.9% decrease in the prices of furnishings and household equipment.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Russia and Ukraine have agreed to a ceasefire in the Black Sea, following days of US-backed talks in Riyadh, according to a White House statement. Ukraine said it would begin observing the maritime truce immediately, while Russia hinged its participation on lifting sanctions on agricultural exports and reconnecting key banks to SWIFT. (Bloomberg | BBC | CNN | New York Times | Reuters)

AND- Israel strikes Syria: An Israeli airstrike killed at least six people in southern Syria on Tuesday. The strike followed a reported exchange of fire between Israeli troops and militants near the border. (Reuters | AP)

AND IN THE BUSINESS PAGES- SAP dethrones Novo Nordisk as Europe’s most valuable company: German software company SAP has become Europe’s most valuable public company, overtaking Danish drugmaker Novo Nordisk, with a market cap of USD 342.4 bn. (CNBC | Reuters | Wall Street Journal | Bloomberg)

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