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Growth in the GCC is expected to see a significant rise in 2025: Emirates NBD sees headline growth in the GCC accelerating to 3.5% y-o-y this year, up from an estimated 1.6% in 2024 on the back of the continued strength of the non-oil sectors of GCC countries — particularly that of the UAE and Saudi Arabia, the bank said in its Global Investment Outlook report (pdf).
UAE & KSA are leading the growth: The GCC’s non-oil economy is seen growing by 4.3% this year, up from an estimated 4.0% in 2024, primarily driven by non-oil sector growth in the UAE — expected to hit 5% this year — and Saudi Arabia, which could see growth reach 4.5%. “Both countries are benefitting from growing populations, strong levels of project developments from both the public and private sectors, expanding tourism industries, and the growth of nascent tech industries,” the report reads.
How the forecast compares: Emirates NBD’s forecast is only slightly more optimistic than that of the World Bank, which penciledin a prediction of 3.4% growth for the bloc this year, and 4.1% growth in 2026. Of the GCC economies, Fitch Solutions’ research unit BMI sees the UAE’s economy growing at the fastest rate, penciling in a forecast of 5.1% growth for the economy this year — a more optimistic prediction than the IMF and World Bank’s forecasts of 4% growth this year.
Interest rates are also expected to fall, which would help increase household consumption, expand business investment, and support expansionary budgets.
Opec+ cuts could keep budgets restrained: The recent decision to extend Opec+ production cuts into 1Q 2025 is expected to keep budgets in the GCC restrained, with the bank predicting the cuts to come in tandem with a 9% drop in brent futures to USD 73 per barrel, down from an expected USD 79.9 per barrel in 2024. However, the bank sees GCC governments continuing to spend despite slowed oil revenues, causing a fiscal deficit across the bloc in 2025.
Still, the UAE and Qatar are expected to record budget surpluses this year — albeit smaller than the one seen in 2024. The UAE was expected to see a budget surplus of 4.3% in 2024, Capital Intelligence predicted, while Oxford Economics’ ICAEW Economic Insight report saw the budget surplus coming in at 4.1% of GDP this year.
Overall inflation to remain unchanged across the bloc: Emirates NBD sees inflationary pressures remaining constant in 2025, predicting an average 2.1% inflation rate for the second consecutive year across the bloc. The drivers of inflation across the GCC are different, with Dubai and Saudi Arabia seeing considerable increases in their housing prices — averaging almost 7% and 9% respectively between January and November of last year — while the effects of disruptions to supply chains through the Red Sea and Suez Canal were more apparent in smaller economies including those of Bahrain and Kuwait.
