Good morning, lovely people, and welcome to the start of a new workweek. We have a brisk issue for you this morning after a whirlwind of a week last week, though we don’t expect this to last too long as we kick off a diplomacy- and event-heavy week.

SPEAKING OF- Brace yourselves for a week of intense traffic as the world’s biggest food show returns to Dubai, while two major defense exhibitions hit Abu Dhabi.

ALSO- We’ll be at the Saudi Tadawul Group’s Capital Markets Forum in Riyadh from Tuesday to Thursday. If you’re going to be there too, drop us a line at awahid@enterprisemea.com — we’d love to grab a coffee and chat about the latest in the industry.

THE BIG STORIES OF THE DAY include news that Mubadala is now a major holder of BTC ETF shares, with a USD 437 mn stake in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) ETF. Also: Adnoc Drilling plans to refinance some USD 1 bn in debt this year.

PLUS: The Dubai Financial Market rose to its highest level in 11 years on Friday as it extended gains from Thursday as stocks rallied on the back of a strong batch of earnings. Salik was among the biggest risers, rallying 3.4%, while Air Arabia’s shares rallied 4.4% after the two companies reported their 2024 earnings. We have coverage of their earnings — and more — in the news well, below.

🌧️WEATHER- We are in for a cloudy and possibly rainy few days — at least until Tuesday, despite an increase in temperatures, the National Center of Meteorology forecasts(pdf). Expect some rain to hit Dubai today, though temperatures will hit an unseasonably warm 30°C during the day, with an overnight low of 20°C, while Abu Dhabi is expected to see highs of 25°C and an overnight low of 21°C.

PSAs-

#1- Indian nationals with a valid visa, residence permit, or green card from select countries can now obtain a visa-on-arrival, state news agency Wam reports. The new rules, effective from last Thursday, apply to those with documentation from Singapore, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, or Canada, along with a passport valid for at least six months. This is in addition to previously eligible documentation from the US, UK, and the European Union.

#2- Rolling road closures will take place in Madinat Zayed, Al Dhafra, today as the UAE Tour cycling event begins, according to a statement. Closures will run from 12:50pm to 4:30pm, with Sheikha Salama Bint Butti Road closing first, followed by sections near Liwa Palace and Liwa Hospital. The race will complete two round laps around Tal Moreeb before finishing in Liwa. The UAE Tour runs until Sunday, 23 February, covering 1k km across seven stages.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy arrived in the UAE yesterday ahead of planned talks between Russian and US officials in Saudi Arabia, the president said on X. The goal from the visit to the UAE includes “[bringing] even more of our people home from captivity, as well as investment and economic partnership [and] a large humanitarian program,” he said.

Background: The UAE is a key mediator between Russia and Ukraine during the war, facilitating several prisoner exchanges for the countries since the war began. The UAE was also rumored as a potential venue for a peace summit between Kyiv and Moscow that could potentially see the attendance of both Zelenskiy and Putin, though this has yet to be confirmed.

#2- Gulfood is back: The world’s largest annual food and beverage event, Gulfood, kicks off today and runs until Friday, 21 February at the Dubai World Center. The event brings together over 5k exhibitors with some 1 mn food to source, with this year’s event focusing on sustainability and food security.

#3- The International Defence Exhibition (Idex) and Naval Defence and Maritime Security Exhibition (Navdex) return to the Abu Dhabi Exhibition Center today and until Friday, 21 February. The events will see policymakers, contractors and OEMs descend on the capital, with the events including roundtable discussions and a Navdex startup zone. Manufacturers like Calidus are set to ink supply and manufacturing agreements at the event, Wam reports.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

#1- US State Secretary Marco Rubio is set to make a stop in the UAE as part of a wider Middle East tour, which also includes Saudi Arabia, with the focus being advancing the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire, discussing Iran and addressing Hamas’ US hostages, according to a statement. The tour kicked off yesterday in Israel, the Associated Press reports.

REMEMBER- Rubio’s Middle East tour comes as Arab leaders push back against US President Donald Trump’s proposal to relocate Gaza’s Palestinian population and redevelop the territory under US ownership. Rubio is expected to face diplomatic resistance in the UAE and Saudi Arabia, both of which have publicly opposed forced displacement.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

EGA eyes Indonesia’s clean energy sector: Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) is set to explore alternative clean energy developments in Indonesia, the country’s Economic Affairs Ministry said in a statement.

ICYMI- Last week, EGA denied reports that it plans to build a 5 GW nuclear plant in North Sumatra to enhance aluminium smelting capacity, confirming instead that it is interested in exploring other clean energy developments in Indonesia.

#2- Update to Dubai smart rental index implements notice period for rent hikes: The Dubai Land Department’s AI-driven Smart Rent Index has introduced stricter rules for rent increases, aiming to curb inflation and stabilize rental prices, according to the Dubai Media Office. Under the new system, landlords must notify tenants of rent hikes at least 90 days before lease expiration, and the increase is subject to approval by the Smart Rent Index. If the 90-day notice is missed, no increase will be allowed even if the property is deemed eligible. Contracts renewed in 2025 will adhere to the new mechanism, while contracts renewed before 2025 are exempt.

REFRESHER- Dubai launched its smart rental index last month, using AI and big data analytics to deliver real-time insights into rental trends and valuations, with plans to expand it to commercial properties. Abu Dhabi also rolled out its rental index last year and plans to update it quarterly, while Sharjah said it was exploring its own index during the Acres real estate exhibition in January.

#3- AOI in talks with UAE investors for new factories: The Arab Organisation for Industrialization is negotiating with Emirati investors to establish three factories focused on defense and civilian industries, Chairman Mukhtar Abdel Latif told state news agency Wam.

The proposed projects include a tire manufacturing plant, a facility producing MDF wood from palm fronds, and an advanced defense industry factory.

#4- Cheyne Capital to double down on UAE equities: British asset manager Cheyne Capital is ramping up its UAE equity exposure, fund manager Carl Tohme told Bloomberg. Tohme cited “continuing reforms, growing population, no FX risk, visible earnings for some companies, and attractive dividend yields” as key advantages in an era of global market uncertainty. Tohme also emphasized the UAE’s currency peg to the USD as a key factor (and its ability to maintain it), providing stability for local equity gains compared to other emerging markets prone to currency fluctuations.

Cheyne’s EMEA hedge fund delivered a 13.1% return last year, doubling the MSCI regional benchmark, riding a USD 73 bn stock-market rally driven by economic growth and government support. Tohme highlighted Salik and Emaar Properties as top performers and remains bullish on Adnoc Gas and Aldar Properties, citing the UAE’s expanding population and sustained economic momentum.

#5- Dana Gas is set to restart energy exploration in Egypt after receiving some of its outstanding dues from the government, two unnamed sources told Asharq Business. The Emirati energy giant will begin exploration in March under a previously announced USD 100 mn program inked with the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation. The investment includes the drilling of 11 new wells, and is expected to add 80 bn cubic feet of gas reserves.

Outstanding arrears have long been a sticking point for Dana Gas, with the company announcing in November that is putting on hold its USD 100 mn project to develop production until it receives USD 24 mn out of a total USD 59 mn of outstanding dues owed by the government. The company received USD 20 mn in December, according to Asharq Business’ sources.

DATA POINTS-

#1- The global ESG sukuk market surpassed USD 50 bn in 2024, with Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and Indonesia accounting for 67% of the total, Zawya reported, citing data from the London Stock Exchange. ESG sukuk issuances grew 14.5% y-o-y to USD 15.2 bn last year, accounting for 1.8% of total ESG bonds and 6.2% of total sukuk issuances. Sustainability sukuk nearly doubled during the year, comprising 69% of all ESG sukuk.

Financial institutions issued 55% of ESG sukuk in 2024, with 93% coming from GCC-based banks. Two Emirati banks were among the top 10 issuers of ESG sukuk in 2024: Dubai Islamic Bank (USD 1 bn) and Emirates Islamic Bank (USD 750 mn).

#2- UAE warehouse rents are projected to rise between 5-10% in 2025 amid supply chain constraints, director of logistics and industrial assets fund Manrre REIT Kunal Lahori told Zawya Projects. The rise in rent prices comes on the heels of heightened demand from local and global logistics giants, manufacturing companies, and e-commerce firms, and increasing demand for Jebel Ali’s 40 mn sq ft warehouses. While supply chain constraints remain an issue due to a shortage in warehouses and industrial land, Lahori forecasts an improvement in supply for warehouse facilities within 12 to 18 months with stabilized rent growth rate at 10%.

REMEMBER- Warehouse facilities in the UAE witnessed robust demand back in 2023, with the UAE recording a 98% warehouse occupancy rate in most Light Industrial Units (LIU).

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

It’s an unusually calm morning in the international press, while regional and international leaders anticipate the ramifications of the new US administration’s approach to Gaza, Ukraine and the international economy.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio started his Middle East tour in Israel, where he stood next to Prime Minister Netanyahu to affirm their shared goals of “eradicating” Hamas and preventing the emergence of a nuclear Iran. Netanyahu called US President Donald Trump’s forcible displacement plan “the only viable plan to enable a different future.” Rubio will head next to Saudi Arabia and the UAE. (AP | CNN)

MEANWHILE- Top EU leaders are gathering in Paris today to discuss a unified response to the US’ unilateral rapprochement with Russia and the future of European defense. It remains unclear whether EU or Ukrainian representatives will be included in anticipated US-Russia negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. (FT | AP | BBC)

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