The World Bank has revised downwards its forecast for economic growth in the UAE in 2025, saying in its Global Economic Prospects report (pdf) that it now sees the economy growing at a 4.0% clip in 2025 — slightly down from its previous forecast of 4.1% growth for the year.

However, the bank has penciled in a higher estimate of 4.1% GDP growth in 2026, up from a previous estimate of 4.0% growth for next year.

The World Bank’s estimate for this year is less optimistic than others: The Arab Monetary Fund said in its Arab Economic Outlook back in July that it sees the UAE’s GDP accelerating to 6.2% in 2025, buoyed by growth in tourism, real estate, and trade, as well as an increase in capital spending. The Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE) also penciled in growth of 4.5% in 2025, down from an earlier projection of 6% back in September. It also projected growth to accelerate to 5.5% in 2026 due to the base effects of hydrocarbon GDP.

The GCC’s growth prospects have also been slashed: The World Bank slashed its growth forecast for Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to 3.3% in 2025, down by 1.4 percentage points from its previous forecasts in June, due to “the extension of the voluntary production cuts by OPEC+,” the report reads. The bank sees growth picking up again in 2026, predicting growth of 4.6% in 2026.

Remember: Opec plans to unwind oil production cuts as of 2Q 2025, with the UAE also given a higher quota to increase production by 300k bbl/d gradually from April 2025.

On a regional basis: The World Bank expects growth in the MENA region to reach 3.4% in 2025 and 4.1% in 2026 up from 1.8% last year — the 2025 forecast is down 0.8 percentage points from previous forecasts, the lender attributed the downward revision to OPEC+ members extending voluntary oil production cuts. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) sees the Middle East and Central Asia growing at a 3.6% clip in 2025 and 3.9% in 2026, both down 0.3 percentage points from the forecasts made last October, the IMF said in its World Economic Outlook report (pdf).

IN OTHER ECONOMY UPDATES-

Standard Chartered sees the GCC to be a “bright spot” for global growth in 2025, expecting GCC countries’ “resilient non-oil sector growth and strategic investments” to lead to a positive performance despite the projected slowdown in global growth to 3.1% from 3.2%, the bank said in a press release (pdf). By focusing on economic diversification and leveraging opportunities in non-oil sectors, the region continues to chart a path of sustainable growth,” Standard Chartered’s Ayesha Abbas said.

Meanwhile, credit rating agency Moody’s sees the UAE’s non-oil economy growing by over 5% this year, with the agency saying that most countries in the region will experience stronger growth bolstered by a recovery in oil production and investment in major projects, according to a Moody’s report seen by Al Etihad. The UAE’s growth will be driven by infrastructure projects and economic diversification initiatives, the report said.

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