Fitch warned that the Middle East region is entering 2025 “on shaky ground,” against the backdrop of the ongoing war, economic headwinds, and political uncertainty following the US elections, during a webinar earlier this week. The agency expects the region’s economy to grow at c. 1.8% in 2024, down from the 2.3% it penciled in last August, according to Fitch Solutions company BMI’s latest outlook (pdf).

A rebound is expected next year: The regional economy will pick up to over 3% by next year, according to its forecast.

UAE to lead the region: BMI anticipates the Emirates’ economy to grow at the fastest pace in 2025, anticipated to accelerate to 5.2% in 2025, fueled by increased oil production and the government’s diversification efforts.

REMEMBER- The UAE is set to increase its oil production to 3.5 mn barrels per day (bbl / d) in 2025 after Opec+ raising its quota from the current 2.9 mn bbl / d.

BMI also sees strong growth for Saudi Arabia, forecasting the Kingdom’s economy to make a dramatic rebound from approximately 0.3% in 2024 to around 4.7% in 2025.

Downside risks remain: Potential risks that could hamper growth include Opec’s production cuts failing to lift oil prices, which could hinder diversification efforts in the region, Fitch analysts noted during the webinar.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Most Asian benchmarks are in the green as investors await Japan’s elections over the weekend. The Nikkei was the one outlier, falling 0.85% as of dispatch time, while the Kosip and Hang Seng are both in the green.

Meanwhile, Wall Street futures are muted after the S&P 500 snapped its three-day losing streak yesterday.

ADX

9,196

-0.1% (YTD: -4.0%)

DFM

4,464

-0.0% (YTD: +10.0%)

Nasdaq Dubai UAE20

3727

+0.2% (YTD: -3.0%)

USD : AED CBUAE

Buy 3.67

Sell 3.67

EIBOR

4.6% o/n

4.3% 1 yr

TASI

11,886

-0.1% (YTD: -0.7%)

EGX30

30,553

+0.5% (YTD: +22.7%)

S&P 500

5,810

+0.2% (YTD: +21.8%)

FTSE 100

8,269

+0.1% (YTD: +6.9%)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,936

+0.3% (YTD: +9.2%)

Brent crude

USD 74.84

+0.6%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 2.54

+0.8%

Gold

USD 2,745.30

-0.1%

BTC

USD 67,950.3

+2.0% (YTD: +60.7%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The ADX fell 0.1% yesterday on turnover of AED 24.01 bn. The index is down 4.0% YTD.

In the green: Multiply Group (+4.6%), Apex Investment (+4.5%) and Modon Holding (+2.9%).

In the red: Gulf Pharmaceutical Industries (-9.6%), Aram Group (-8.8%) and Umm Al Qaiwain General Investments (-4.7%).

Over on the DFM, the index remained flat on turnover of AED 333.3 mn. Meanwhile Nasdaq Dubai closed up 0.2%.

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