Good morning, lovely people. We start the week with an M&A and investment-heavy issue as Adnoc gears up to close its acquisition of Fertiglobe this week. With all approvals secured, the acquisition will boost Adnoc’s stake in the ammonia-focused joint venture.

(Parenthetically” You can thank the Fertiglobe transaction for Friday’s bumper AED 14 bn turnover on the ADX, with 44 block trades of Fertiglobe shares accounting for nearly AED 13.3 bn worth of that figure.)

AND- DP World is moving forward with a GBP 1 bn investment at the London Gateway after resolving its dispute with UK officials. Further afield, Damac ramps up AI-driven investments, committing USD 1 bn to establish data centers in Thailand.

MEANWHILE- Happy Thanksgiving to our Canadian readers.

WEATHER- We’re in for another cloudy week, with the National Center of Meteorology forecasting (pdf) light to moderate winds over eastern and northern areas, along with a chance of rainfall on Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures today will hit 39°C in Dubai, with an overnight low of 31°C, and 35°C in Abu Dhabi, before cooling to an overnight low of 31°C.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- US approves potential arms sale: The US State Department greenlit a sale of weapons to the UAE valued at up to USD 1.2 bn, Bloomberg reports. The package includes guided-rocket systems and long-range missiles along with training and support for both systems. Diplomats also signed off on a USD 1 bn sale to Saudi Arabia.

Remember: The UAE was designated a major US defense partner in September during President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan’s meeting with President Joe Biden. The two leaders discussed potential investments in US defense systems.

#2- AirCarbon Exchange to close Abu Dhabi operations: AirCarbon Exchange will close its Abu Dhabi operations on October 25, just a year after launching trading in the region, Bloomberg reports. The company will phase out its regulated exchange and clearing operations in the Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM) but will retain its technology center and regional marketing team in the city, according to a company statement. ACX plans to refocus its efforts on Singapore, its headquarters.

The rationale: Low demand for carbon credits in the region, Bloomberg suggests, given there’s no regulatory imperative to buy emissions offsets and some companies remain concerned they’ll be accused of greenwashing if they go for voluntary purchases. Mubadala acquired a stake in ACX in November 2022.

#3- BRIEFLY NOTED-

  • UAE to invest in Nigeria’s tech startup scene? The UAE is considering partnering with the Nigerian government to invest in the sector, Nigerian newspaper Punch quotes Dubai Future Foundation CEO Khalfan Belhoul as having said.
  • Sovereign wealth fund Mubadala has trimmed its stake in Canadian gold miner Equinox Gold by more than half, retaining a 4.2% stake, Charlie Tian’s GuruFocus News reports. Mubadala invested USD 130 mn in Equinox Gold in 2019, acquiring 18% of the company.
  • e& UAE set a new global record as it hit an aggregated speed of 62 Gbps on its 5G-advanced network, Wam reports.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- Gitex Global kicks off today and runs through to Friday at the Dubai World Trade Centre and Dubai Harbor. The event gathers leaders from large tech firms, as well as government representatives, emerging startups, investors, and corporate buyers to showcase the latest innovations in technology, including AI, cybersecurity, and cloud computing.

#2- Happening alongside Gitex is Expand North Star, which kicked off yesterday and runs until Wednesday at the Dubai Harbor. The event will also include an AI startup competition — DMCC x AGCC: Global AI Challenge - Sustainability Edition — to identify innovative AI solutions that contribute to sustainability in the GCC region.

FintechSurge is also taking place alongside Gitex, bringing together over 12k investors and 100 exhibitors, serving as a platform for fintech firms to showcase their innovations. The Future Blockchain Summit is also taking place as part of the event until Wednesday.

#3- The IEEE /RSJ International Conference on Intelligent Robots and Systems (IROS2024) begins today and runs through Friday at Adnec Center Abu Dhabi — its first time in the Middle East. Hosted by Khalifa University of Science and Technology, the annual robotics conference will be attended by researchers, academics, and global industry professionals.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

#1- SuperBridge Summit will be held on 15-16 October at One Za’abeel in Dubai. Organized by the Dubai World Trade Center and Gitex, the event will gather business leaders, investors, and policymakers from Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East to discuss AI, innovation, and manufacturing in emerging markets.

#2- Minister of State for Entrepreneurship Alia bint Abdulla Al Mazrouei is leading a UAE delegation to Japan this week to participate in the Ceatec exhibition from 15-18 October, according to a press release. On the agenda: entrepreneurship, SMEs, technology, and innovation.

#3- The Sharjah International Conference on AI & Linguistics will take place on Thursday and Friday at the American University of Sharjah.

DATA POINTS-

#1- The combined bottom line of the UAE's largest banks is projected to rise 10% y-o-y in 3Q 2024, hitting AED 15.9 bn, according to a CNBC Arabia survey of analysts. Emirates NBD is expected to lead the pack with an estimated AED 6 bn, followed by First Abu Dhabi Bank at AED 4 bn. ADIB (AED 2.3 bn), ADCB (2.07 bn) and Dubai Islamic Bank (AED 1.5 bn) will round out the top five.

#2- Some 45 new projects have launched in Abu Dhabi so far this year, AlEtihad reports, citing data from the Abu Dhabi Department of Municipalities and Transport’s Dari platform. The breakdown:

  • 33 residential developments with a combined 9.3k residential units
  • 12 are mixed-use projects.

The most-active developer: Aldar Properties, with eight projects and 3.3k residential units.

PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENTS-

#1- Dubai launches startup guide for entrepreneurs: The Dubai Chamber of Digital Economy’s Dubai Startup Guide provides information on setting up businesses in the emirate, according to a Dubai Media Office statement.

#2- UAE residents will only be able to access the Human Resources and Emiratisation Ministry’s platforms through a UAE Pass account from 18 October, the ministry said in a post on X.

#3- Beneficiaries of Abu Dhabi Housing Authority loan programs can now digitally track construction progress and estimate costs on a new platform launched by Teyaseer, according to the Abu Dhabi Media Office. The platform offers no-cost design tools to customize location, style, layout, and finishing options.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

It’s a quiet morning on global business front pages, but that should change as the week grinds on.

Is Trump just horsing around about allowing the greenback to weaken? A top Trump economic advisor says The Donald is merely posturing about weakening the USD and turning away from global trade. Hedge fund manager Scott Bessent, who some pundits think could be the Republican’s pick for Treasury Secretary, made the remarks in a conversation with the Financial Times, telling the salmon-colored paper that Trump wants the greenback to “remain the world’s reserve currency” and that he’s using the threat of tariffs “as a negotiating tactic.”

In security news: The US has sent Israel advanced anti-missile systems and 100 troops to ru

n them as tensions between Tel Aviv and Tehran continue to boil. In Asia, China has begun large military exercises around Taiwan — the war games come as observers spell out worries that disruptions to busy South China Seas shipping lanes could further snarl global shipping.

MORNING MUST READ- One of the world’s top AI researchers thinks “AI is as dumb as acat” — that current models are “far from rivaling the intelligence of our pets, let alone us.” Christopher Mims’ sit-down with the Meta researcher offers a broad and reasonably balanced view on the state of the art (and hysteria) about artificial intelligence.

SIGN OF THE TIMES- Global accounting giant EY is blaming a slump in private equity and M&A activity for its decision to delay “start dates for new graduates hired for its elite strategy adviser Parthenon” in the United States.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK internationally:

  • International Monetary Fund boss Kristalina Georgieva will speak this coming Thursday on the global economy and her organization’s priorities ahead of next week’s World Bank and IMF General Meetings, which formally get underway a week from today.
  • Interest rate watchers will keep a close eye on consumer inflation data from India (today), Canada (tomorrow), the UK (Wednesday), and Japan (Friday);
  • Turkey’s central bank will meet on Thursday to set interest rates. Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia do the same on Wednesday.
  • Earnings season continues, with major institutions set to report this week including Ashmore, Bank of America, Citi, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Blackstone, Netflix, and Schlumberger.

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MARKET WATCH-

Opec+ is prioritizing high oil prices over market share amid weak demand and rising output from non-member oil producers, Salih Yilmaz, senior analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, told Asharq Business (watch, runtime, 8:28). Opec+ does not anticipate long-term market share issues as high-cost producers are expected to exit the market by 2030, Yilmaz said, nodding to share recently accumulated by US shale operations.

Survey insights: Some 70% of respondents see Opec+ maintaining its price-supporting strategy, while 72% do not expect Opec+ to pursue market share growth at the expense of prices into 2025, according to a recent Bloomberg Intelligence survey.

REMEMBER- Opec+ initially planned to start phasing out production cuts in October, but later scrapped the plans as the price of oil sagged. The UAE is set to raise production in 2025, after Opec+ granted it a higher production quota of 3.5 mn barrels per day in 2025, up from the current 2.9 mn.

What to watch for next: Oped will release its October oil market report today, while the IEA will follow suit tomorrow.

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