September is often a turbulent month for asset classes including stocks, bonds, and gold — and there are few signs suggesting this year will be much different, Bloomberg writes.

What gives? Anxiety over whether the US Federal Reserve will cut rates (and by how much) later this month and generalized anxiety about the US presidential election.

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The “traditional” September slump: Bonds, stocks, and gold regularly dip in September as traders rebalance portfolios after summer vacation, the business information service notes. Just about all of the S&P 500 and Dow’s biggest losses (in percentage terms) in each year since 1950 have come in September. Bonds have fallen in eight of the last ten Septembers, and gold has dropped every September since 2017.

Investors are eyeing this coming Friday’s US employment report for insights into the US economy and the Fed’s next moves. The Fed meets on 17-18 September and will then convene again in early November and mid-December. With Fed Chair Jerome Powell having largely settled the question of whether there will be a rate cut in September, the key issue now is the extent of the cut, Amy Wu Silverman, head of derivatives strategy at RBC Capital Markets wrote.

Politics is making things more fraught, with the prospect of a 10 September TV debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is also adding to anxiety — to say nothing of the question of who is elected in November.

All eyes on Friday? “September has a mixed record, with risk-off sentiment being common, especially in election years,” Bob Savage, head of markets strategy and insights at BNY said. “The upcoming US jobs report will likely set the tone for the rest of the year,” he added.

THE MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are mixed this morning, with the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite both in the red and both the Nikkei and Kospi up slightly. Australia’s ASX 200 is essentially flat, as is India’s Nifty 50.

Futures suggest we’ll see US shares open under modest selling pressure at the opening bell later today, while most major European benchmarks we follow are set to today’s session in the green.

ADX

9,363

+0.8% (YTD: -2.2%)

DFM

4,357

+0.7% (YTD: +7.3%)

Nasdaq Dubai UAE20

3,811

+0.8% (YTD: -0.8%)

USD : AED CBUAE

Buy 3.67

Sell 3.67

EIBOR

5.0% o/n

4.4% 1 yr

TASI

12,167

-0.2% (YTD: +1.7%)

EGX30

30,732

-0.6% (YTD: +23.5%)

S&P 500

5,648

+1.0% (YTD: +18.4%)

FTSE 100

8,364

-0.2% (YTD: +8.2%)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,973

+0.3% (YTD: +10.0%)

Brent crude

USD 77.52

+0.8%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 2.19

+2.9%

Gold

USD 2,531.70

+0.2%

BTC

USD 58,992.10

+1.1% (YTD: +40.1%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The ADX rose 0.8% yesterday on turnover of AED 1.1 bn. The index is down 2.2% YTD.

In the green: NMDC Group (+14.6%), Gulf Medical Projects (+11.1%) and Al Khaleej Investment (+6.4%).

In the red: Response Plus Holding (-4.0%), Al Ain Alahlia Ins. (-3.5%) and Emirates Stallions Group (-3.3%).

Over on the DFM, rose 0.7% on turnover of AED 396.2 mn. Meanwhile Nasdaq Dubai also closed up 0.8%.

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

Adnoc petrochemicals unit Borouge will distribute USD 650 mn in interim dividends for 1H 2024, equivalent to 7.94 fils per share, according to an ADX disclosure (pdf). The company plans to pay a total of USD 1.3 bn dividends for FY 2024.

ON THE DFM- The International Financial Advisors Holding Company completed regulatory procedures to increase its capital to KWD 48.0 mn from KWD 30.0 mn, according to a DFM disclosure (pdf). The Kuwaiti holding company has also finalized procedures for trading new shares associated with the capital increase.

e&’s stake in Vodafone Group has been trimmed to 15.010%, following Vodafone’s share buyback program, according to an ADX disclosure (pdf). Despite the stake size reduction, the Emirati telco’s total shareholding remains unchanged at 3.9 mn shares.

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