Capital Intelligence affirmed the UAE’s long term foreign and local currency ratings at AA- with a stable outlook, it said in a statement. The credit rating agency also affirmed the short term foreign and local currency ratings at A1+ with a stable outlook. The rating affirmations reflect the UAE’s strong fiscal and external positions, high GDP per capita, and economic diversification efforts, Al Khaleej cites Capital Intellgience’s report as saying.

Real GDP is expected to grow at a 4.2% clip in 2024 and 5.4% in 2025-26, on the back of non-oil sector growth. The rating agency cites ongoing reforms to diversify the economy and reduce reliance on oil and gas as guarding against potential risks from global economic uncertainties amid geopolitical conditions.

That’s along the same lines of official projections: The Central Bank of the UAE — along with the World Bank — see the economy growing 3.9% this year, while the IMF expects 4% growth.

The UAE’s current account surplus is expected to fall but remain high this year, driven by a gradual recovery in oil and gas exports, alongside strong non-hydrocarbon exports. It’s expected to decline to about 7.8% of GDP from 9.4% in 2023, Capital Intelligence said. It’s expected to remain in surplus next year and in 2026, averaging 6.8%, Capital Intelligence said.

Public debt is expected to fall to 29% of GDP in 2024, with the UAE’s foreign exchange assets expected to cover 160% of external debt maturing this year.

The budget surplus is projected at 4.3% of GDP in 2024, before slightly narrowing to 3.8% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026, Capital Intelligence said.

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