Growth in the UAE’s non-oil sector is expected to slow to 5% in 2024, from 6.2% in 2023, Asharq Business quotes Fitch Solutions MENA analyst Mariette Kas-Hanna as saying during a webinar. Kas-Hanna cited increasing borrowing costs as contributing to the slowdown, in addition to rising living costs driven by increasing rents in Dubai.

It’s not just us: Saudi Arabia is also expected to see the non-oil sector expand at a 2.9% clip this year, down from 4.4% in 2023, Kas-Hanna said.

This is higher than the World Bank’s forecast, but almost in line with official projections. The World Bank sees non-oil GDP growing 3.2% this year, buoyed by “strong performance in the tourism, real estate, construction, transportation, and manufacturing sectors.” The Central Bank of the UAE is more optimistic, saying it expects the sector to grow 5.4%, while Economy Minister Abdulla bin Touq Al Marri anticipates non-oil GDP to grow at a 4.9% clip in 2024.

Regional outlook: Fitch Solutions sees the Gulf region's GDP expanding 1.8% in 2024, up from 0.6% last year, before expanding 4.9% in 2025 on the back of a recovery in oil production following extended OPEC+ supply cuts. The World Bank previously lowered its 2024 MENA growth forecast to 2.8% due to continued oil production constraints.

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