“The worst is over” for Turkey’s inflation: Turkey’s annual consumer price inflation rose to 75.5% in May — according to the Turkish Statistical Institute — in what economists expect to be the peak of a years-long cost-of-living crisis before prices start to cool. “The worst is over,” Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek said on X. “The transition period in the fight against inflation is complete and we are entering the disinflation process,” he added.

In detail: Headline inflation in May — which was up by 5.7 percentage points from a monthearlier — was driven primarily by steep annual price rises in education, housing, and restaurants. Monthly inflation climbed to 3.4% in May, up from 3.2% in April.

Despite the jubilant tone, inflation still came in higher than expected: A Reuters poll saw annual inflation peaking at 74.8% in May and monthly inflation registering 2.7-3.3%.

So where is inflation headed from here? Annual inflation will likely drop below 50% by the end of 3Q 2024, hit 33.2% in 12 months, and 21.3% in 24 months, Simsek said. Analysts polled by Reuters expect annual inflation to drop to 42.6% by the end of 2024.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Most Asian markets have started the day in the red, with only Hong Kong’s Hang Seng bucking the trend. There’s no clear trigger for the dip, which sees the Nikkei leading decliners at dispatch time this morning (-0.7%). Futures for major European benchmarks dipped overnight, while Nasdaq, Dow, and S&P 500 futures were largely unchanged.

ADX

8917.6

+0.6% (YTD: -6.9%)

DFM

3993

+0.4% (YTD: -1.6%)

Nasdaq Dubai UAE20

3352.3

+0.2% (YTD: -12.8%)

USD : AED CBUAE

Buy 3.67

Sell 3.67

EIBOR

5.2% o/n

5.4% 1 yr

TASI

11,808

+1.6% (YTD: -1.3%)

EGX30

26,834

-0.1% (YTD: +7.8%)

S&P 500

5,283

+0.1% (YTD: +10.8%)

FTSE 100

8,263

-0.2% (YTD: +6.9%)

Euro Stoxx 50

5,004

+0.4% (YTD: +10.7%)

Brent crude

78.57

-3.1%

Natural gas (Nymex)

2.66

+3.0%

Gold

2,358.1

+0.5%

BTC

69,264

+1.9% (YTD: +155.4%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The ADX rose 0.6% yesterday on turnover of AED 979.1 mn. The index is down 6.9% YTD.

In the green: Abu Dhabi National Company For Building Materials (+14.6%), RAK Co. for White Cement and Construction Materials (+5.6%) and Adnoc Logistics & Services (+4.2%).

In the red: Gulf Medical Projects (-9.6%), Al Khaleej Investment (-9.1%) and Hayah Ins. (-6.1%).

Over on the DFM, the index rose 0.4% on turnover of AED 302.1 mn. Meanwhile Nasdaq Dubai rose 0.2%.

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

Ajman Bank’s board approved a share buyback program that will see it buy back up to 10% of its shares on the DFM after receiving the regulatory approvals, according to a disclosure (pdf).

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