Positioned for growth

The Emirati banking system is well-placed for expansion in 2024, propelled byrobust credit demand in non-oil sectors and ongoing government-led initiatives for economic diversification, according to S&P Global Ratings’s GCC Banking Sector Outlook 2024 report (pdf). On the whole, GCC banks are projected to maintain solid capitalization, profitability, provisioning, and liquidity, the report said, predicting “broad stability in key metrics across GCC banks and banking systems in 2024.”

GCC banks on the whole will see slightly slower credit growth: Credit growth will moderate slightly on the back of an unfavorable base effect and increased lending caution, the report noted. This comes amid a persistent high interest rate environment and uncertain external macroeconomic conditions, S&P Global said.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE are expected to have the strongest return on assets (RoA) during the year, with high levels of capitalization making them favorable when compared to regional or global peer groups, the report said.

Where do the risks lie? The report named three potential areas that could present risks: the “worsening geopolitical environment,” in which the rating agency highlighted “proxy conflicts” with some level of GCC involvement; oil price volatility; exposure to the real estate sector; and some GCC banks’ expansion in what the report referred to as “high-risk jurisdictions” such as Egypt and Turkey, with exposure to both countries estimated at USD 160 bn.

Real estate exposure in particular is a risk for UAE banks, the report said, as the ratings agency expects the real estate sector in Dubai to witness price corrections after a bumper year for prices. High vacancies in the commercial real estate sector can also lead to a slowdown in growth, it added.

REMEMBER- Data out over the past few weeks has pointed to a record increase in real estate prices in the UAE in 2023, with indications property prices will continue to appreciate in 2024 — albeit potentially at a slightly slower pace. The IMF estimates that real estate prices rose at the highest levels globally last year, with a 10.4% y-o-y surge, while others have estimated an even higher 15-18% surge in Dubai alone.