The Finance Ministry expects the economy to grow at a 5.3% clip this year, up from its 3.1% forecast for 2023, driven by economic diversification efforts, Finance Ministry Undersecretary Younis Haji Al Khouri told Wam. Non-oil GDP is expected to grow at a 4.7% y-o-y clip in 2024, Al Khouri said.

The projection is slightly more bullish than most others: The World Bank expects to see 3.7% growth in 2024, up from the previous estimate of 3.4% in the June edition of its report, while The Arab Monetary Fund sees the GDP growing at a 4.3% clip. On the more bullish side, S&P Global is more in line with FinMin’s forecast, saying earlier this month that the economy could accelerate to more than 5%. The Central Bank of the UAE is even more bullish, saying last month it sees the economy growing at a 5.7% clip.

The non-oil GDP projection is also more bullish: The International Monetary Fund sees the non-oil sector maintaining its 4% growth in 2024, while Oxford Economics expects non-oil GDP to grow 3.8% in 2024.

ICYMI- The positive growth outlook for the Emirates’ economy comes amid expectations of a global economic slowdown, with the IMF slashing its outlook for the regional economy to 2.9% in FY 2023-24, marking a 0.5% downgrade from its previous outlook in October on the back of Saudi Arabia’s temporary oil cuts, according to its latest update (pdf).

Tags: