Good morning, ladies and gents. We bring you yet another meaty issue today, with everything from fresh economic growth projections to more updates from the penultimate day of Arab Health 2024.

THE BIG STORY here at home is the Finance Ministry’s expectation that continued economic diversification will drive the economy to grow 5.3% this year.

^^ We have the full rundown on this story and others in this morning’s news well, below.

TODAY IS THE START OF A NEW MONTH- Here are the key news triggers on which to keep your eyes on during the first few weeks of February.

  • PMI: S&P Global will publish the UAE’s PMI figures for January on Monday, 5 February, while Dubai’s figures will be out on Thursday, 8 February.

PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT-

#1- You’re going to be paying more at the pump starting today: The Energy Ministry’s Fuel Pricing Committee increased retail fuel prices for February yesterday, following three consecutive months of slashing prices. The rundown:

  • Super 98 is now AED 2.88 per liter, up 2.1%;
  • Special 95 is now AED 2.76 per liter, up 1.8%;
  • E-Plus 91 is AED 2.69 per liter, up almost 2%;
  • Diesel is adjusted to AED 2.99 per liter, down 0.33%.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- The Arab Health Exhibition 2024 concludes today in Dubai. Arab Health is one of the two largest regional healthcare conferences to take place every year. It takes place at Dubai World Trade Center.

#2- The Abu Dhabi Arbitration Center is live: The Abu Dhabi International Arbitration Centre (arbitrateAD) launches today, Wam reports. The center’s team includes Arnold & Porter Global Chair of International Arbitration Practice Maria Chedid (bio), who will serve as the first woman president of an arbitral court in the region.

#3- OPEC+ members will review the oil cartel’s ongoing production cuts during a Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee today, Reuters reports. But don’t expect any breaking news from the meeting, as several OPEC+ sources told the newswire that they expect any decisions regarding extending production cuts into April to come later in the month.

#4- Trucks weighing over 65 tonnes will be subject to fines of up to AED 15k if they operate on federal roads as of today. That’s when the four-month grace period on the amended federal law on heavy vehicles elapses. The amendments, which came into effect on 1 October, granted a four-month window for vehicle owners and companies to adjust before penalties came into force. All heavy vehicles operating on the roads fall under the law’s purview, with only security, military, police, and civil defense vehicles exempt.

#5- Emiratis traveling to the UK can apply for entry using the newly introduced electronic travel authorization (ETA) starting today, the UAE Embassy in London said. The ETA will allow Emiratis to travel an unlimited number of times within the span of two years for GBP 10. You can apply here.

REMEMBER- An ETA only allows you to travel to the destination, but you will still need to obtain approval for entry into the UK through an eGate or a border force officer, Khaleej Times notes.

#6- Our friends at Mashreq are calling for nominations for its board of directors, with the period for submission open from today to Monday, 12 February, the bank said in a bourse disclosure (pdf). The bank will be electing seven new members, according to the disclosure.

HAPPENING SOON-

Ramadan could start as early as Monday, 11 March, Gulf Business reports, citing Emirates Astronomical Society Chairman Ibrahim Al Jarwan. Dubai’s Islamic Affairs and Charitable Activities Department had previously noted the start of the holy month would land on Tuesday, 12 March, but it all depends on the moon, with the UAE’s moon-sighting committee readying to head to the telescopes when it’s almost time.

One thing’s certain, though: Fasting will last 29 days, bringing Ramadan to an end on either Tuesday, 9 April or Wednesday, 10 April, depending on which predictions you’re trusting, Gulf Business also reports. The Human Resources Ministry will confirm the date of Eid Al Fitr — and its accompanying week-long holiday — during the fasting month.

DATA POINT-

#1- Oil stockpiles at Fujairah Port slumped to a five-week low, falling 4.5% week-on-week during the week ending on 29 January, on the back of jet fuel inventories dropping 21%, according to S&P Global. However, total stockpiles have inched up by 2.1% y-o-y since the end of 2023. Oil exports — not including fuel oil — climbed 12% m-o-m, reaching 414k barrels per day in January.

#2- Sharjah’s real estate transactions rose 13.1% y-o-y in 2023 to reach AED 27.1 bn, the highest level since 2017, Mubasher reports. The number of investors’ nationalities rose 21.2% y-o-y to 103 during the year, with the number of non-Arab foreign investors rising 165% in trading volume.

#3- Dubai is set to defy the trend of a global slump in luxury residence prices, with prices in the Emirate expected to rise 5.9%, Bloomberg reports, citing a Savills report. Despite an anticipated slowdown in prime residential markets worldwide, Dubai is expected to experience a growth in prices by 5.9%. The report expects major cities including Hong Kong, New York, and San Francisco to see a slowdown in high-end residential property value growth this year, penciling in a 0.6% growth rate compared to 2.2% in 2023.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Two big stories are vying for your attention this morning, one of them in our neighborhood, and one in the US of A.

#1- Is Egypt about to devalue its currency? Speculation is rampant in Cairo that the Sisi administration is closing in on a much larger financing agreement with the International Monetary Fund, giving it as USD 9 bn or more in funding over a multi-year period in return for a commitment to reforms including devaluing (or floating) its embattled currency.

Egyptian shares closed sharply down yesterday as traders “adopted a ‘sell the fact’ mood, with equities being sold off as rumors about an impending pound depreciation intensify,” Bloomberg writes, citing Dubai-based Emre Akcakmak, a portfolio manager at East Capital International.

EnterpriseAM Egypt has reported that an IMF delegation in Cairo has extended its stay until today in the hope of reaching a staff-level agreement. The news comes as Egypt’s central bank moved to sop up excess local-currency liquidity in the market amid long lines at banks, reminding financial institutions yesterday of longstanding limits on cash withdrawals for both companies and individuals.

#2- The US Federal Reserve has left rates unchanged — and signaled that a rate cut in March is unlikely. It’s the fourth meeting in a row to see the Fed leave rates at a nearly 23-year high of 5.25%-5.50%. “Based on the meeting today, I would tell you that I don’t think it’s likely that the committee will reach a level of confidence by the time of the March meeting,” Fed boss Jay Powell said at a presser after the meeting.

The story is on every front page this morning: Reuters | FT | CNBC | WSJ | AssociatedPress | NYT | Bloomberg.

#3- On the issue of regional tensions and the Red Sea:

  • Iran has threatened a “decisive response” if the US strikes its “territory, or its interests or citizens abroad,” Iran’s UN Ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani said, according to Iranian state media. The statement came as the US Navy launched another attack against Houthi infrastructure in Yemen.
  • The European Union is set to send ships into the Red Sea by mid-February, Reuters writes, in a bid to help deter Houthi attacks on shipping. EU forces will not participate in attacks on Houthi positions, the bloc’s foreign policy chief added.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Conference season is heating up:

Dubai will host the Family Office Roundtable (FORT) Global this Friday, 2 February at the Museum of the Future, according to a press release. The invite-only event will center discussions on the international finance and investment communities, influential family offices, government members and dignitaries, with nearly 10k guests, hailing from over 35 countries.

The Mubadala Abu Dhabi Tennis Open will take place from Saturday, 3 February to Sunday, 11 February at Zayed Sports City’s International Tennis Centre. The tournament will feature big names including four-time Grand Slam champion Naomi Osaka, plus Elena Rybakina, Ons Jabeur, Maria Sakkari, and Barbora Krejčíková, reports The National.

Young entrepreneurs can pitch early-education startup ideas at the AbuDhabi Youth Challenge: Techstars Startup Weekend, running for three days from Friday, 2 February, to Sunday, 4 February at Cloud Spaces ADGM in Abu Dhabi. The top three teams will get AED 30k.

The Investopia Summit will take place from Wednesday, 28 February, to Thursday, 29 February, in Abu Dhabi. The two-day event will run under the theme “Emerging Economic Frontiers: Investing in Fast-Growing Sectors in the New Economy,” gathering investors, government officials, and entrepreneurs to explore investments in strategic markets.

Check out our full calendar at the bottom of the email for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

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