AI is next week’s big story, but you should keep an eye on the MENA+ non-bank financial sector, too

We’re keeping an eye on two stories as we slide into the weekend. One is going to dominate the region’s business agenda next week — the other is the sleeper on which many of us should be keeping at least one eye.

AI IS THE OBVIOUS ONE ahead of SpaceX’s USD 75 bn IPO, which is on track to dwarf Aramco’s until-now world record 2019 offering. Humain, MGX, and QIA all have exposure to SpaceX ; they and other regional entities have also made big bets on Anthropic, Nvidia, OpenAI, Google, and other AI stalwarts who are keeping a close eye on how things go for SpaceX. Bankers are expected to price the deal next Thursday before trading starts on 12 June, one week from today.

The SpaceX numbers are breathtaking: Goldman Sachs predicts that SpaceX’s AI revenues could grow 100x by 2030 — that’s the basis for the USD 1.78 tn valuation Elon Musk is seeking for his rockets / AI / satellite / infrastructure company. 100x. In three-and-a-half years. No sweat, right?

Also giving us the jitters: Up to 25% of the shares allocated in the IPO will go to retailinvestors, a rather skittish constituency at the best of times…

Other AI stories that need to be on your radar: Anthropic wants a global pause in AIdevelopment, warning that AI models are getting to the point where they could start to improve without human involvement. And Apple’s World Wide Developer Conference gets underway on Wednesday, where a revamped (and hopefully much, much smarter) AI-powered Siri is due to be unveiled

THE SLEEPER- Should investors be wary of a bubble in non-bank lending in MENA+? Saudi Arabia’s central bank has just imposed rules that require non-bank financial institutions — consumer credit providers, leasing and factoring companies, payment providers — to give five working days’ notice before any equity, convertible, or debt round, with details on size, investors, and the effect on ownership.

The news comes just weeks after a brouhaha in Egypt over potential systemic risk fromthe rapid expansion of consumer and other non-bank credit roared to life on social media and the nation’s still-influential nighttime talk shows. The flap seems to have died down, but the regulator there is now requiring companies packaging securitized debt to submit for review XLS files that list — item by item — every asset in the offering.

Will the NBFI industry need to go on Wegovy? The weight-loss drug just launched inpill form in the UAE, the first global market for the new formulation. It wouldn’t be particularly hard to imagine Tabby offering up a payment plan for GLP-1s when your insurance won’t cover. –Patrick and Salma