Don’t expect a ceasefire to bring back the double-digit IPO pop: The US-Iran ceasefire announced earlier this month may have shaved off regional markets’ immediate risk premiums, but analysts tell EnterpriseAM that it won’t bring back the IPO euphoria we saw over the past three years. The easy market was already recalibrating before the war, now issuers face a market that’s not quite open yet, where realistic pricing is the only way in.

DATA POINT- Only four IPOs have made it to market YTD across the region, down from 12 in the same period last year. These listings — one each in Saudi Arabia (Saleh Abdulaziz Al Rashed & Sons), Bahrain (Silah Gulf), Kuwait (Trolley), and Egypt (Gourmet) — raised a combined USD 296.6 mn, marking the region’s weakest first quarter since 2018 as the Iran war effectively slammed shut the spring IPO window. (The lone sign of optimism right now: A small-ish offering from a Saudi IT firm, as we note in this morning’s Markets + Deals column, below.)

Markets have clawed back losses, but investors aren’t looking at IPOs just yet. At the height of the freeze, the regional landscape was simply “unsuitable for an IPO,” Junaid Ansari, director of investment strategy and research at Kamco Invest in Kuwait, told EnterpriseAM. Markets were oversold, meaning any issuer hitting the tape would have had to accept a massive haircut on valuation. While a broad-based rally across the GCC post-ceasefire made the market “attractive for new IPOs” again, Ansari warns this isn't a full reset.

Riding out the geopolitical overhang: “We expect this year to underperform last year’s IPO volume as well as proceeds,” he says. Even with missiles and drones no longer flying, sentiment is still subject to “change overnight.” Bankers are counseling would-be issuers to sit tight — at least until the end of the war looks a bit more solid. “We believe that 2H 2026 would see a revival in IPOs if there is a permanent ceasefire,” Ansari says.

Structural headwinds are still at play

“The ceasefire is clearly a positive near-term catalyst for sentiment, but it does not, in isolation, signal a full reopening of the IPO market,” Tahir Abbas, head of research at Ubhar Capital in Oman, tells EnterpriseAM. He expects a series of “selective, opportunistic issuance windows” as investors continue to hedge against lingering geopolitical risks.

But are there deeper issues to face? Abbas argues that geopolitical jitters are just compounding the structural setbacks that markets had absorbed before the outbreak of the war “driven by tighter liquidity and valuation recalibration.” While the ceasefire “helps stabilize sentiment,” it does not fully “reverse these structural headwinds.”

In simple terms: The regional IPO slowdown had started well before the first shot was fired in the Gulf. The market was already losing momentum with a number of 2025 listings struggling to hold onto their post-listing gains, Abbas previously told us, though the conflict did accelerate the freeze. The “strong euphoria” that defined the earlier cycle faded, with several names to deliver meaningful secondary-market returns.

Is it enough to bring foreign flows back?

Regional investors are likely the only ones with the stomach for the current volatility. Domestic institutions and high-net-worth individuals remain the “dominant driver” of the market, Abbas notes. While foreign participation might tick up at the margin, a broad-based return of international investors depends on “clearer visibility into the end of the war” and a better understanding of global rates and growth, “making 2026 still largely a regionally supported IPO market,” he said.

The shape of the reopening looks different depending on where you sit: Saudi Arabia and Oman are better positioned thanks to strong domestic institutional demand and government-linked flows, Abbas told us ahead of the ceasefire. The UAE, by contrast, sits in the middle due — it has higher exposure to international sentiment, which makes execution harder to read. At the other end, Egypt (more macro stress) and Kuwait (shallow liquidity) are unlikely to see big listings soon.

Yes, but… Market watchers took note of the successful disposal of a chunk of Egyptian fintech darling Valu in an accelerated book build last week — and Banque du Caire has yet to pull the plug on its hotly anticipated spring offering, we’re told.

Execution risk remains

Despite the rally, the market is “highly selective,” Abbas warns. Not many IPOs will come to market soon, and those that do could face real challenges marshalling demand if they price too aggressively.

Watch out for a clustering effect: With a backlog of issuers waiting for the right moment, there’s a real (if small) risk of too much supply hitting at once. Abbas expects advisors to attempt “disciplined deal sequencing” to avoid taking more paper to market than investors have appetite for.

But there’s money out there for the right name — at the right price. “Demand for good quality names at reasonable valuation is always strong in the region,” Ansari says, though he notes that allocation dynamics between institutional and retail investors will determine how much supply the market can ultimately absorb.

What might investors like?

Financials, healthcare, and utilities remain the most viable candidates in this “cashflow visible” environment, both Ansari and Abbas told us before the ceasefire. We think Saudi’s Sudair Pharma and Nupco, the UAE’s Tabreed, and Egypt’s Banque du Caire as the primary bellwethers.

On the flipside, cyclicals including consumer discretionary, logistics, and industrials face a steeper climb due to margin pressure. This pulls growth-driven stories like Dubizzle, Tabby, and Ninja, along with industrial heavyweights like Saudi Global Ports, into higher-risk territory where valuation discipline will be the deciding factor.

Looking ahead: “If the situation in the region improves, we can expect to see higher allocation to cyclicals and growth stocks,” Ansari told us.

What would-be issuers should be watching

What does a win look like in a post-euphoria market? It’s no longer about the 15-20% secondary market pop. Abbas argues that “sustainable performance and institutional participation are now more important indicators of market health than short-term euphoria.”

(Order) size matters: So what signals should potential issuers be looking at to decide if the market is coming back? It has less to do with facile signals like headline-grabbing pops in share price on the first day of trading (always a sign bankers left a bit too much on the table) and a lot more to do with whose buying and what appetite looks like.

That’s going to make a more disciplined marketing process event more important, Abbas suggests. Strong visibility on early demand through anchor or cornerstone investors will be key. Anemic orders that portend a weaker book early on will make companies more likely to delay going to market rather than risking a weak transaction or — worse — having to pull one after announcing.

The investors to watch: Foreign institutional appetite and whether government-related entities are buying or sitting on the sidelines.