Is Ankara going to play hardball with Tehran on a key gas import agreement?

Turkey’s long-term natural gas supply agreement with Iran is about to expire in July — and the pair haven’t discussed renewal just yet, Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said. The agreement covered 9.6 bn cubic meters of gas annually, or about 13% of Turkey’s imports last year, though Iranian flows have often failed to live up to the contracted amounts.

Turkey’s domestic energy needs are covered by a patchwork of agreements. Russian pipeline gas still accounts for c. 35% of its mix, though state importer BOTAŞ said it was shifting toward short-dated supply agreements last December, when it agreed to a one-year extension of two legacy Gazprom contracts through end-2026. Bayraktar said at the time Ankara would pursue "one-year deals" and shorter arrangements going forward.

BACKGROUND- Ankara is leveraging its unique geographic location and advanced gas infrastructure to double down on its role as a re-export hub to serve Europe. Turkey has also been working for more than a year to diversify its natural gas sources away from Russia, its largest supplier over the last two decades, to create its own “Turkish blend” — an export product created by mixing gas from different countries — setting it up as Russia’s backdoor into Europe’s gas markets.