What are you doing, Oman?

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OPENING NOTE

What, exactly, is Oman up to?

Good morning, friends. We close the week with a simple question in mind: What the hell is Oman doing?

Iran may have just taken a big step toward claiming Hormuz as the toll-generating equivalent of the Suez Canal. A top Iranian diplomat says Oman and Tehran are “drafting a protocol for Iran and Oman to supervise transit in the Strait of Hormuz.” The agreement will “facilitate and ensure safe passage and provide better services to ships that pass through this route,” deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi says.

Oman has been quiet about what it’s up to, but three Omani ships appear to have passed through Hormuz late yesterday — Bloomberg says they were two oil tankers and an LNG carrier. Reuters separately reported that Oman had mysteriously delivered its first LNG shipment to Germany’s state-owned SEFE, which said only that the shipment was “unaffected” by the war. There’s only one way SEFE could have taken delivery: A vessel made it through Hormuz.

MEANWHILE- With week five of the war drawing to a close and The Donald seeming no closer to declaring victory and going home, we have the inside track this morning on how both airline and pipeline networks could be reconfigured as the Gulf comes to the realization that it hasn’t decoupled from geopolitics, after all. Have a great weekend, folks. –Patrick

The next building boom

The Gulf states and Iraq are reportedly revisiting pipeline expansion and cross-border corridor ideas that had previously been shelved for being too expensive, politically complicated, or slow to develop, as they look to secure export routes outside of Iran’s control.

Secondary pipelines that producers had previously taken for granted are now vital lifelines. Saudi Arabia had just maxed out the capacity of its East-West pipeline, now pumping 7 mn bbl/d and exporting 5 mn bbl/d from Yanbu — almost half of its pre-war volumes that went through Hormuz. The UAE also maxed out its Adcop pipeline — the Habshan-Fujairah bypass — with some 1.5 mn bbl/d now flowing, or about 40% of pre-war levels. Meanwhile, Iraq is now pushing volumes by land through Syria and exporting some 200k bbl/d through its Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline — a meager 5% of its pre-war exports of 4.4 mn bbl/d.

But other energy exporters are not as lucky: Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar don’t have the geographical advantages that Saudi and the UAE do — they’re fully dependent on Hormuz.

Here is what’s being pitched

#1- Syria-bound corridors for Iraq? Iraq appears to be going all in on Syria as its hedge for Hormuz disruptions. Iraqi officials said earlier this week they are discussing a possible pipeline project with Syria, and Iraq is also reviving a mid-century corridor to move about 650k metric tons of fuel oil per month overland through Syria, marking the first time the route has been used in decades. Another option could be a Jordan-bound connection.

#2- Expanded East-West pipelines for Saudi (and perhaps the wider Gulf): Riyadh is currently exploring whether to expand the current Yanbu-bound East-West pipeline or build a new one altogether connected to new Red Sea terminals like Neom, Christopher Bush, the CEO of Cat Group and one of the main executors of the Saudi East-West pipeline, told the Financial Times.

#3- A redundant network: One of the long-term ideas being explored by policymakers includes working on a redundant “web of corridors” rather than a single pipe, the Atlantic Council’s Maisoon Kafafy told the FT.

Challenges remain

The price tag would be staggering. Bush estimates that replicating the East-West pipeline today would cost at least USD 5 bn due to the difficulty of blasting through hard basalt mountain ranges. More complex multi-country routes through Iraq, Jordan, or Syria are estimated to cost between USD 15 bn and USD 20 bn.

Then, you have physical and political risks. Any network passing through Iraq or Syria will have to contend with unexploded munitions and the persistent threat of militants.

And building a “web of corridors” would require an unprecedented level of regional cooperation. Gulf countries will need to abandon individualist policies and reach a governance agreement on who operates and controls cross-border flows, as well as how much volume each country will be entitled to.

Emirates NBD is closing in on a USD 3 bn acquisition of a 60% stake in India’s RBL Bank

Emirates NBD is closing in on a USD 3 bn acquisition of a 60% stake in India’s RBL Bank after securing green lights from both the Central Bank of the UAE and the Reserve Bank of India. The Indian regulator reportedly approved a majority ownership of at least 74%, though voting rights remain capped at 26%. The deal, which may trigger a mandatory tender offer as early as next week, would make Emirates NBD the first foreign lender to take majority control of a profitable, listed Indian bank.

OpenAI closed its record USD 122 bn series G funding round with investments from Abu Dhabi AI investor MGX as well as Amazon, Nvidia, and Softbank. The round gives OpenAI a valuation of USD 852 bn as it eyes a late-year IPO. MGX has been a consistent backer across primary and secondary financing rounds for OpenAI since 2024, in addition to also backing OpenAI rivals Anthropic and xAI. Qatar Investment Authority has also backed Anthropic.

Masdar and TotalEnergies are pooling their Asian renewable energy portfolios into a USD 2.2 bn 50-50 joint venture headquartered in Abu Dhabi. The new entity launches with 3 GW of operational assets and a 6 GW pipeline in advanced development across nine markets, including Indonesia, Uzbekistan, and Japan. By centralizing execution, the partners aim to bring the “scale and speed” required to capture accelerating electricity demand across the continent.

Hillhouse Investment just made Abu Dhabi very happy by staying the course: The global PE outfit has landed a category 3C license to open an office in ADGM — exactly the signal the emirate wants to send. The firm already has significant exposure in the UAE through its backing of Virtuzone and Hartland International School. Hillhouse will use the ADGM office as a permanent base to scour for deals across the Gulf.

Hillhouse isn’t the only big global player taking on more exposure to our region: BlackRock is partnering with ADIB Capital on a shariah-compliant global healthcare equities fund, giving investors exposure to pharma, biotech, and medical devices. The open-ended fund will target undervalued firms with strong fundamentals.

FAB is lining up a USD 5 bn total return swap for Nigeria, which will use the proceeds from the six-year facility to fund infrastructure and refinance more expensive debt as it grapples with a tightening global yield environment.

Citystars, Park St., and Sky Innovo Developments are launching a EGP 100 bn (USD 1.9bn) mixed-use development in New Cairo. The 140k sqm Citystars Park St. will integrate office space and retail with luxury hospitality managed by Fairmont Hotels and Resorts.

Adnoc’s XRG and OMV have officially launched Borouge International after completing a

USD 60 bn polyolefins merger. The new entity puts Borouge, Borealis, and Nova Chemicals under a single brand headquartered in Austria with a major UAE base, creating the world’s leading pure-play polyolefins company.

Uh, Enterprise? Poly-whats? Polyolefins are the most widely used of all thermoplastics, accounting for about 50% of global production. They’re used in everything from packaging to automotive parts and household items.

Kingdom Holding purchased a SAR 255 mn (USD 68 mn) stake in Bill Gates-led climate investment fund Breakthrough Energy Ventures. The stake — the size of which was not disclosed — was acquired at a 30% discount to market value from Kingdom Holding Chairman Prince Alwaleed bin Talal.

Background: Prince Alwaleed invested USD 50 mn in BEV when Gates launched it back in 2016. The investment was part of a “commitment to invest more than USD 1 bn in energy technologies” from Gates and other major global business figures such as Jeff Bezos, Jack Ma, and Michael Bloomberg.

Market Snapshot

Tadawul flat • ADX -1.0% • DFM -0.6% • EGX30 -0.2%

Brent USD 109.3 / bbl • Gold USD 4,679.70 / oz • USD / SAR 3.7502 • USD / EGP 54.27

Brace for impact

The GCC is likely to slip into a war-induced recession this year, with GDP now projected to contract by 0.2%, Oxford Economics says in a research note. That’s a massive 4.6 percentage point downgrade from pre-war estimates as the Iran war enters its second month and reshapes the region's economic outlook.

Oxford is penciling in a two-month conflict with full closure at Hormuz, followed by another two months of relative recovery in which Hormuz would see volumes rebound to 50% of its pre-war levels.

The impact will be felt unevenly across the bloc, with Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain facing the sharpest downgrades. The UAE will also take a hit, the note says. Oxford thinks fallout from the conflict will include a long-term hit to both tourism and domestic demand, with recovery expected to be gradual and closely tied to how the security situation evolves.

Saudi Arabia and Oman are better positioned to weather the shock thanks to alternative export routes that bypass the Strait and allowing them to sustain some of the pre-war flows while benefiting from elevated prices.

While Qatar boasts solid buffers, it is set to take the biggest hit among the bunch, with USD 20 bn in annual revenue expected to vanish after Iranian strikes took the Ras Laffan LNG complex offline, taking up to 20% of Qatar’s LNG capacity out of service for as long as 3-5 years.

Beyond the GCC, Lebanon bracing for a possible 12-16% hit to GDP, according to a report from the Finance International Institute’s chief MENA economist Garbis Iradian seen by L’Orient Today.

First indicators

The UAE’s purchasing managers’ index (PMI) shrank in March to its lowest level since June 2021, falling to 52.9 from 55.0 the month prior. The March reading — which still indicates an expansion of non-oil business activity — reflects a slight softening of output that was still largely offset by businesses working through their sales pipelines and continuing to take on new business (albeit at a slower rate). The worst-hit sectors appear to be tourism, retail, and logistics, while tech and construction are less impacted.

Turkey’s PMI also took a hit, dropping to a five-month low at 47.9 — remaining in contraction territory — as Ankara’s non-oil businesses were impacted by higher inflation, supply chain delays, and an overall sense of uncertainty as a result of the war in their backyard.

Also on Our Radar

Launching new terminals despite the war

Mawani kicked off operations at the Jubail commercial port container terminal under a privatization agreement with Saudi Global Ports (SGP) — a JV between the PIF and Singapore’s PSA International — backed by more than SAR 2 bn in investment.

Jubail was pulled into the conflict’s risk perimeter, with cargo flows diverted, nearby waters exposed to attacks, and the broader Gulf system effectively frozen. That makes pushing ahead with the terminal read as a deliberate choice to stay the course on a pre-war expansion play rather than pause or reprice risk, positioning the port to capture flows if routing stabilizes.

Air traffic picks up for Egypt, Jordan

Passenger traffic at Cairo International Airport was up10.2% y-o-y in March despite the war, with 1.7 mn people passing through. The news came as Hungarian low-cost carrier Wizz Air said it was aiming to boost its flight volumes to Egypt by as much as 300% by the end of 2027, focusing heavily on routes that would ferry an estimated 4 mn tourists to Egyptian destinations from Central and Eastern Europe. Wizz last month added capacity into Sharm El Sheikh to capture travelers looking for alternatives to routes closed by the war.

Turkey gets USD 2 bn from World Bank

Turkey is getting USD 2 bn from the World Bank to finance the Istanbul North Rail Crossing Project after the lender approved the loan earlier this week. The project entails building a new high-capacity line across the Bosporus Strait to link Europe and Asia.

Dubai property market keeps its head above water in 1Q

What we’re tracking

#1- The UAE Media Office denied overnight that Iran had hit an Oracle data center there, responding to claims pushed out by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

The IRGC said earlier in the week that it would target 18 US tech and defense firms. Tehran claims these corporations are actively enabling US and Israeli military targeting operations, pointing to defense contracts and data processing capabilities as justification for the strikes.

The IRGC target list reads like a roster of the companies driving the GCC’s tech ambitions — Apple, Google, Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia, Amazon, IBM, Intel, Oracle, HP, Palantir, Dell, Cisco, JPMorgan Chase, GE, Tesla, and Boeing. Non-US firms on the list include the UAE’s AI champion, G42, and Dubai-based tech security service provider Spire Solutions.

#2- A strong first two months of the year provided a cushion for 1Q property market figures out of Dubai. Property prices held steady while absorbing record capital inflows in 1Q 2026, according to Dubai Land Department and Property Finder data. Total real estate transactions hit AED 251 bn during the quarter, up 30% y-o-y — the highest quarterly performance on record — across 61.6k transactions, up 6% y-o-y.

The first two months of the year offset March, driven by a mix of international inflows and existing investors, Director of Business Development and Client Relations at Cavendish Maxwell Zacky Sajjad told EnterpriseAM. “January and February were phenomenal months, abnormal months even,” Sajjad said.

But momentum may not hold — with war or without: “No market just keeps going up indefinitely,” Sajjad said, pointing to the sharp price and volume gains over the past five years. “There was always going to be a stabilizing period.”

Moody’s expects a cooling phase ahead, though whether that tips into a correction depends greatly on how long the war ends.

Market watch

Dubai (#1) and Abu Dhabi (#2) maintained their standing as the top-ranked Mideast players on the Global Financial Centers Index (GFCI), with Dubai cracking the top 10 globally. Doha followed in third place regionally, rising 14 spots, followed by Casablanca (+7). The index, which rates 137 financial centers as a place to do business, is based on factors including business environment, human capital, infrastructure, financial sector development, and reputational measures.

CALENDAR

April 2026

5 Apr — OPEC+ ministerial meeting. Vienna (virtual)

9 Apr — Martyrs’ Day (public holiday, markets closed). Tunisia

9 Apr — Liberation Day (public holiday, markets closed). Iraq

13 Apr — IMF / World Bank spring meetings begin (through 18 Apr). Washington (virtual)

14 Apr — QNB 1Q 2026 earnings guidance. Qatar

15 Apr — 2Q IPO listing window opens. Region-wide

25 Apr — Sinai Liberation Day (public holiday, markets closed). Egypt

28-29 Apr — US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting.

28 Apr-1 May — Syria HiTech International ICT Exhibition. Damascus, Syria

May 2026

12 May — Qatar Economic Forum (through 14 May). Qatar

21 May — Central Bank of Egypt monetary policy decision. Egypt

25 May — Independence Day (public holiday, markets closed). Jordan

27-30 May — Eid Al Adha (public holiday, markets closed). Region-wide

28 May — Saudi Aramco ex-dividend date. Saudi Arabia

June 2026

7 June — OPEC+ ministerial meeting. Vienna/Virtual

9 June — King Abdullah II Accession Day (public holiday, markets closed). Jordan

10–14 June — Syria Buildex International Construction Exhibition. Syria

16-17 June — US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting.

July 2026

5 July — Independence Day (public holiday, markets closed). Algeria

9 July — Central Bank of Egypt monetary policy decision. Egypt

14 July — Republic Day (public holiday, markets closed). Iraq

23 July — Revolution Day (public holiday, markets closed). Egypt

25 July — Republic Day (public holiday, markets closed). Tunisia

28-29 July — US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting.

30 July — Throne Day (public holiday, markets closed). Morocco

August 2026

13 Aug — Women’s National Day. Tunisia

20 Aug — Revolution of the King and the People Day (public holiday, markets closed). Morocco

20 Aug — Central Bank of Egypt monetary policy decision. Egypt

21 Aug — Youth Day (public holiday, markets closed). Morocco

25 Aug — Prophet’s Birthday (public holiday, markets closed) — TBD. Region-wide

31 Aug-3 Sep — LEAP technology conference. Saudi Arabia

September 2026

7-9 Sep — AIM Congress. UAE

15-16 Sep — US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting.

15 Sep — IMF’s eighth review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement. Egypt

16-17 Sep — Middle East Banking Innovation Summit. UAE

23 Sep — National Day (public holiday, markets closed). Saudi Arabia

24 Sep — Central Bank of Egypt monetary policy decision. Egypt

30 Sep-3 Oct — Cityscape Egypt 2026. Egypt

October 2026

3 Oct — National Day (public holiday, markets closed). Iraq

6 Oct — Armed Forces Day (public holiday, markets closed). Egypt

15 Oct — GCC Made in the Gulf Forum + Exhibition. TBD

25 Oct — Liberation Day (public holiday, markets closed). Libya

25-27 Oct — World Investment Forum 2026. Qatar

26-29 Oct — Future Investment Initiative. Saudi Arabia

27-28 Oct — US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting.

29 Oct — Central Bank of Egypt monetary policy decision. Egypt

November 2026

1 Nov — Revolution Anniversary (public holiday, markets closed). Algeria

2 Nov — Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition + Conference (ADIPEC) opens (through 5 Nov). UAE

6 Nov — Green March Anniversary (public holiday, markets closed). Morocco

16 Nov — Cityscape Global begins (through 19 Nov). Saudi Arabia

December 2026

17 Dec — Central Bank of Egypt monetary policy decision. Egypt

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