Saudi crude and Qatari LNG exports are clawing back around Hormuz, but both remain far below pre-war levels

Gulf energy finds detours: Saudi Arabia and Qatar are pushing more oil and gas around the Strait of Hormuz, but both are still far short of pre-war volumes.

Saudi crude exports rose 7.9% m-o-m in August to 4.451 mn bbl / d, their highest since March, even as production fell to a record low of 6.24 mn bbl / d from 8.135 mn bbl / d in July, according to Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI) data. Saudi exports have recovered from a May low of c. 3.4 mn bbl / d but remain well below February’s 7.3 mn bbl / d. The kingdom has kept barrels moving through terminals on its Gulf and Red Sea coasts.

Doha has taken its gas offshore: In the war’s first six months, the few Qatari cargoes that left did so because buyers had negotiated passage with Iran. Qatar now runs ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman: Its tankers hand off cargoes and return to Ras Laffan to reload, Bloomberg reports. With that shuttle, QatarEnergy restored exports to about a third of pre-war levels in September, according to Bloomberg. At least 20 cargoes have cleared Hormuz since early September, and one tanker is sailing for Poland via the Red Sea.

Both economies are paying for lost volumes: The IMF expects Qatar’s economy to contract 15.6% this year and Saudi Arabia’s 3.3%, even as oil prices are soaring. Brent rose 1.2% to USD 110.1 / bbl early Thursday and continued climbing to USD 113.73 after further Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia prompted Washington to order some diplomats and their families out of the kingdom, as we note in this morning’s War Watch, above. LNG prices, meanwhile, are surging as inventories dwindle ahead of the northern winter.

Even as the short-term view is looking choppy, energy execs in the Middle East have a more bullish view on the industry’s outlook than their peers globally, according to research commissioned by ADIPEC. The report indicates that nearly three quarters of respondents see the Middle East becoming “more important in global energy over the coming decade.”