Iran hits US base in Jordan, ships in Hormuz, and Saudi oil infrastructure

Iran’s retaliation is spilling across the region — hitting a US base in Jordan, ships in Hormuz, and through the Houthis, Saudi oil infrastructure. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) said it fired ballistic missiles at a USS-used base near Al Azraq in Jordan and attacked 10 ships in the Strait of Hormuz earlier today, in retaliation for the US destruction of five Iranian oil tankers a day earlier, Reuters reports.

The escalation also hit Saudi Arabia’s oil map: Iran-backed Houthi forces attacked four southern cities yesterday, striking oil facilities in Abha, Najran, and Jazan and setting installations ablaze, while wounding 73 people, the newswire adds. The Houthis had also claimed a drone strike on the refinery earlier last month, which came after missiles and drones struck the same plant on 27 July, forcing Aramco to shut it down and tightening Riyadh’s fallback map.

IN CONTEXT- Jazan is home to Aramco’s 400k bbl / d refinery and associated energy facilities, but had already become a less reliable outlet as the fighting shifted west: The refinery shipped unusually high volumes of refined products during the first months of the US-Iran war, as disruptions around Hormuz have squeezed Saudi exports from the Gulf. Those flows fell sharply after Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia resumed, with no refined products shipped from Jazan during August.

Now Riyadh is facing pressure at both ends of its oil-export map: Tehran plans to announce a new restricted maritime zone outside Hormuz in the coming days, beginning at the line of the US naval blockade and extending into parts of the Gulf, Reuters reports, citing Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei. Any vessel entering the zone would be added to Iran’s sanctions list.

The new restrictions would land on an already-thinning route: An average of just 10 commodity vessels a day crossed Hormuz over the past 10 days — the lowest since May — after another round of US-Iran strikes on vessels. US forces struck three Iranian oil carriers over the weekend, while Tehran says it targeted three tankers using “unauthorized routes” through Hormuz — with data from Kpler showing Saturday’s crossings falling into the single digits.

The shipping lanes themselves could also be redrawn. Iran and Oman have agreed on coordinates for a new international corridor through their waters in the Strait of Hormuz, under a joint framework in which Iran would have a management role. Tehran says it will only commit to keeping the strait open once US attacks and threats against Iran stop.

A diplomatic route through Hormuz may be closer, even as the military picture worsens. Iran has signaled that an agreement to facilitate shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is close to finalization after weeks of negotiations with Oman. The arrangement will involve determining a temporary safe route through the waterway for energy supplies, according to Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei.