PIF takes full ownership of four Saudi football clubs as Anthropic’s record IPO promises Gulf payout

It’s a very SWF-heavy Markets + Deals morning to lead us into the weekend, as the Public Investment Fund takes ownership of 25% stakes in four of Saudi Arabia’s biggest football clubs and releases its annual report for 2025. Meanwhile, Claude creator Anthropic’s upcoming IPO is positioned to be a significant windfall for three Gulf players — including the Qatar Investment Authority.

Saudi’s Sports Ministry is transferring the 25% stakes held by nonprofit foundations in Al Ittihad, Al Ahli, Al Hilal, and Al Nassr to the Public Investment Fund and dissolving the foundations’ boards, the ministry said in a statement on X. This is the second phase of the four clubs’ ownership transfer under the Sports Clubs Investment and Privatization Project. The PIF is now the sole owner of each club, removing an awkward middle layer that would otherwise complicate any outright sale.

The Al Hilal math makes things clearer. The PIF sold 70% of Al Hilal Club Company to Kingdom Holding (KHC) in April for SAR 840 mn, on an enterprise value of SAR 1.4 bn and an equity value of SAR 1.2 bn. On the old 75-25 split, that leaves the fund with 5%, yet the PIF has consistently said it retains a 30% minority. Folding in the foundation’s 25% gets the stake to that 30%.

Who’s next? Al Ittihad, Al Nassr, and Al Ahli, all of which are still fully PIF-controlled and with buyer talks underway.

The Public Investment Fund’s assets under management dipped 1.4% y-o-y to around USD 900 bn in 2025, according to the fund’s 2025 annual report. Not meeting its annual target and the slight drop marks the first such decline in a decade driven by what the report cited as “short term market conditions including global macroeconomic volatility and the impact of US tariff measures on asset valuations across international and domestic markets.”

Three Gulf-linked investors could be getting AI’s biggest payout yet. Anthropic’s planned USD 2 tn IPO this fall — which would top SpaceX’s USD 1.8 tn June debut as the largest IPO in history — sets up the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA), Abu Dhabi’s MGX, and International Holding Company (IHC)-subsidiary Judan Financial for a massive windfall after committing an estimated combined USD 7.5 bn to Anthropic in previous funding rounds. The Claude developer submitted a confidential S-1 filing on 1 June and is expected to list on the Nasdaq in October.

Who’s holding the bag: QIA moved first in September 2025, backing Anthropic’s USD 13 bn series F funding at a USD 183 bn valuation — the first Gulf sovereign money Anthropic ever took. MGX (owned by Mubadala and G42) followed in February 2026, co-leading the USD 30 bn series G funding at USD 380 bn, with QIA returning as a participant and Alpha Wave Global joining for the first time. By May, both were back for more USD 65 bn series H round that brought Anthropic’s valuation to USD 965 bn. Judan Financial separately took a 50.1% stake in Alpha Wave, giving it an indirect line of exposure to Anthropic.

Gulf bond spreads have widened this year, but the pressure is a US Treasury story, not a repricing of Gulf credit risk over war or geopolitics. Rising Treasury yields are pulling capital toward safe US paper and squeezing EM spreads, Franklin Templeton’s head of global sukuk and MENA fixed income Mohieddine Kronfol tells the Arabic press. Credit risk in Gulf debt markets remains within the same band it’s held for five years.

The Treasury backdrop: The 10-year Treasury yield hit a 20-month high of 4.75% this week before easing to around 4.64% Wednesday; the 30-year touched a 19-year high above 5.34% before the Treasury doubled its long-bond buyback program to calm the selloff. Two-thirds of respondents in a Bloomberg Markets Pulse survey expect the 10-year to breach 5% before year-end — territory unseen since 2007.

The Gulf side is holding up, with bond and sukuk issuance up ~10% y-o-y. UAE issuers sold a record USD 30.3 bn in USD and EUR-denominated bonds through 28 July, up a third y-o-y, while Saudi issued over USD 21 bn in 1H 2026, making it one of the largest EM issuers globally. GCC-wide USD issuance is tracking toward a record USD 112 bn this year. Spreads have still widened: Abu Dhabi’s 2054 bonds now trade near 82 bps over Treasuries, versus 53 bps in January.

Where to look for value: Short-term domestic Egyptian bonds given elevated risk; more constructive on long-dated Morocco and Gulf paper.

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