The US is set to reopen its Libya embassy after 14 years

Washington is preparing to reopen its embassy in Libya after nearly 14 years away. The State Department has told Congress it plans to allocate nearly USD 41 mn toward security work for a “phased resumption” of embassy operations — the first real money behind an effort flagged back in March.

The framing is pure great-power competition: Libya’s Mediterranean location and its weight in “energy markets and migration flows” make it vital, the State Department said, warning that instability has drawn in “near-peer competitors, notably Russia.” Officials from Libya's rival western and eastern camps have recently met Marco Rubio and Africa adviser Massad Boulos.

Background: The Tripoli embassy has been shuttered since July 2014, when conflict engulfed the country, and US diplomats have since worked out of Tunisia and Malta.

Breakneck speed

The UAE is moving faster than planned on its USD 1.4 tn US investment pledge, Foreign Trade Minister Thani Al Zeyoudi told Bloomberg, pointing to closer ties with Washington as the Trump administration eases restrictions on exports of advanced AI chips to the Emirates.

The ten-year timeline could be getting shorter, he added. The framework agreement was announced last year, and covers UAE investments in the US’s AI infrastructure, semiconductors, energy, and manufacturing sectors. Al Zeyoudi cited the US’ recent upgrading of the UAE’s export status as helping the Emirates on its way to the investment target. The move opened the door for the UAE government and approved companies, including G42 and Core42, to buy advanced US chips, satellites, and defense equipment.

The UAE will start taking imports of US chips “very soon,” he said, adding that delivery will go to UAE-US projects like the 5 GW US-UAE data center complex in Abu Dhabi, which is expected to host US firms like OpenAI.

Train wreck?

The renewed US-Iran conflict could fuel inflation and more than halve global growth. Prolonged conflict could push interest rates higher and slash global growth to as low as 1.3% from 2.9% last year, World Bank Chief Economist Indermit Gill tells Reuters. The bank’s June outlook modeled three scenarios, with the worst-case assumption of the conflict lasting six months already close to materializing. Damage to regional oil infrastructure would also disrupt supplies of fertilizer, helium, and sulfur.

Developing countries would be hardest-hit: Rising inflation could leave heavily indebted economies struggling to service their debt within months, crowding out healthcare, education, and other essential spending. 32 low-and middle-income economies are already in debt distress or at high risk, the bank’s June outlook showed, with that figure at risk of rising if interest rates increase.

“It’s a slow-moving train wreck,” Gill said. Even countries that avoid default would be forced to sacrifice long-term priorities to service debt, as developed countries’ debt-to-GDP ratio climbed to 74% in 2025 from 50-55% before Covid-19.

Eroding power

QatarEnergy has extended force majeure on LNG deliveries to buyers in South Korea, India, and Bangladesh — with some notices now pushed to mid-September and possibly October — while leasing out its own tankers through mid-October, Reuters reports, citing trade sources. At least nine QatarEnergy-controlled carriers have been sub-chartered to the likes of Chevron, BP, and Trafigura even as freight rates fall — a sign Doha expects the disruption to persist and would rather keep the fleet earning than wait for a recovery. Qatar accounts for about a fifth of global LNG trade.

Gulf producers’ pricing power is eroding: Asian and European buyers are pressing Qatar and the UAE for lower prices and stronger supply guarantees as continued disruption through Hormuz adds a risk premium, Reuters reported separately.

A buyer’s market: Higher ins. costs and recent shipping disruptions are shifting more bargaining power toward buyers as new long-term contracts come up for negotiation. While the UAE has built a reputation for offering more flexible contract terms, buyers now say future agreements will also need to account for higher geopolitical and ins. risks. Growing production from alternative markets like the US, Canada, and Mozambique is also expected to strengthen buyers' negotiating position in the years ahead, they said.

Some are already pushing on price: Some recent agreements have been signed closer to 12.3% of Brent crude prices, the sources said, suggesting buyers are already negotiating discounts to reflect the higher risk, with pre-war contracts typically priced at 12.6%-12.7%. Buyers are also expected to ask Gulf exporters for commitments to provide replacement cargoes if shipments through Hormuz are disrupted.

Pump it out

OPEC+ will likely wave through another output-target hike from September when it meets on 2 August, three sources told Reuters, expecting the same roughly 188k bbl / d bump as June, July, and August. The seven core producers, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Russia, are racing to reclaim market share for when the Iran war ends.

The catch: The cartel can’t actually pump out the quotas they set. Group output sank to 36.28 mn bbl / d in June, down from nearly 43 mn bbl / d pre-war, with Hormuz throttled and Houthis now hitting Saudi tankers.

Bring your friends

Dubai is offering its residents rewards when friends and family visit Dubai, with the emirate looking to turn its large expat population into tourism ambassadors with a new incentive program that rewards them for hosting visitors, Wam reports. The move comes as the emirate rolls out support and fiscal packages targeting tourism and the wider private sector since the war started.

The details: The “A Dubai Invite” program runs until 31 October, 2026, offering residents of around 200 nationalities reductions on hotel bookings of up to 45%, resort credits across the city, and transport perks. Residents can register guests until 30 September, with arrivals verified by Dubai’s General Directorate of Identity and Foreigners Affairs. Each resident can claim benefits for up to three guest groups.