Oman + KSA stay insulated from Hormuz shutdown as Kuwait, Qatar contract sharply

Saudi Arabia and Oman are poised to be the only two Gulf economies to grow this year, according to a Reuters poll of economists. Both countries are insulated from the impact of shutting down the Strait of Hormuz; for Saudi Arabia, that’s thanks to its East-West pipeline, which moves crude to the Red Sea without relying on the strait, while Oman’s export terminal is outside Hormuz.

But the forecasts are moving in different directions: Economists now see Oman’s GDP growing at a 3.1% clip this year, up 0.9 percentage points from the last poll in April. Saudi Arabia’s forecast, meanwhile, was revised downward to 1.4% from 2.6% previously. That’s also below the IMF’s revised 1.7% projection, itself down from 3.1% in April.

Elsewhere in the region: Kuwait and Qatar, both fully dependent on Hormuz, took the sharpest downgrades, each now seen contracting 8.1%, down from 4.4% and 6.0% in April. Bahrain is forecast to shrink 5.1% and the UAE 0.5%.

That being said, the ones who are set to have the worst 2026 are also poised to bounce back the most. Economists see Kuwait growing 10.1% next year — the highest rate in the GCC — while Qatar is expected to rebound with 7.8% GDP growth. Saudi Arabia (+6.0%), the UAE (+5.8%), Bahrain (+4.5%), and Oman (+2.8%) are also expected to have “swift” recoveries in 2027, the poll indicates.