Gulf crude flows recover to 75% of prewar levels as gas shipments lag far behind

Crude is waiting for no one, but gas isn’t having the same fortune: Saudi Arabia is shipping the most oil from inside the Gulf since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with four Bahri-owned supertankers hauling some 8 mn bbl loaded at Ras Tanura clearing into the Gulf of Oman yesterday — the largest single-day exit since the US-Iran interim peace deal took effect two weeks ago, Bloomberg reports. Reuters put the tally higher, at five tankers carrying 10 mn bbl, and said Aramco resumed Ras Tanura loadings after a near four-month halt. Vessels are clearing the strait in convoys, mostly via a US-administered corridor in Omani waters.

Aramco made a rare move to the spot market, selling at least 6 mn bbl across three supertankers bound for South Korea, Japan, and China as it works to restore war-stifled flows, Bloomberg reports, citing traders. The world's largest oil exporter normally sells only on long-term contracts; spot selling is typically the preserve of smaller producers. The cargoes are priced against the Dubai and Oman benchmarks.

The rebound is broader than just Aramco. Kuwait lifted output to 1.65 mn bbl / d in June from just 580k in May, rising as high as 1.9 mn in the month's final 10 days as it clears stranded cargoes, a source told Reuters. Gulf crude exports have recovered to at least 75% of pre-conflict levels. Meanwhile, Adnoc has been among the most active spot sellers, offloading tens of mns of barrels via tenders, and this week proposing to index its official prices to the Dubai benchmark. Iraq managed to export oil stranded in the Gulf but is struggling to source enough tankers.

And the taps are set to open further: Opec+ will likely agree to another output-target hike of about 188k bbl / d for August when it meets Sunday, three sources told Reuters — the same increment as June and July. The added supply has dragged Brent down to about USD 72 / bbl, roughly its prewar level, from close to USD 120 in March.

Gas tells the opposite story: LNG shipments from Qatar — a fifth of global supply before the conflict — have been near-paralyzed since fresh Iranian attacks on vessels last week, Bloomberg reports. QatarEnergy has extended a force majeure on some Asia- and Europe-bound shipments and is still subleasing vessels — both signals it doesn’t expect a quick rebound.

A stark split in pricing: While crude has round-tripped to prewar levels, benchmark LNG prices remain around 70% above end-February levels.