Posted inWHAT WE’RE TRACKING

Morocco rejects possible Revolut expansion to protect local players and manage regulatory priorities

Plus: Baghdad weighs Opec exit as regional conflict slashes its critical oil export revenues

Watch this space

Mubadala-backed neobank Revolut is getting two very different receptions in the region. The UAE's central bank granted the British neobank full Stored Value Facilities and Retail Payment Services licenses on 17 June, clearing the last regulatory hurdle before a customer launch later this year. Morocco’s central bank, meanwhile, has shut the door — for now, with the governor Abdellatif Jouahri telling Revolut executives that their entry doesn’t fit with the country’s current priorities. Revolut has not filed a formal licensing application

ICYMI- Revolut is plans a full-scale UAE launch for late 2026, targeting the country's c. 10 mn expats and their cross-border payment flows.

But why is Morocco turning down Revolut? Jouahri cited three consuming regulatory files: negotiations with European partners over remittance flows, a year-end IMF/World Bank financial-stability assessment, and an AML/CFT evaluation by the Financial Action Task Force. Protectionism is probably the biggest factor: Attijariwafa recently launched a digital bank, which Jouhari said already covers the segment Revolut would target. So much for competition, yeah?

The split says something about where MENA fintech regulation is heading. The UAE is pulling in global fintechs as part of a deliberate push to deepen its digital-payments infrastructure, while Morocco is looking to give domestic incumbents the chance to digitize first. Revolut's executives told Jouahri they ‘understood’ and would revisit when conditions improve.


Iraq is mulling an Opec exit as it reviews its options to raise production to address an ensuing fiscal crisis. A senior Iraqi oil ministry official told Reuters this week that Baghdad will have to consider all available options if its production quota is not raised substantially, citing a financial crisis driven by the Iran war that has slashed oil exports via the Strait of Hormuz. A formal spokesperson denied Iraq is considering the move in remarks to Bloomberg, saying that the initial reports did not reflect the government’s position.

The parallel is hard to miss. The UAE left Opec on 1 May, citing a growing mismatch between its rising production capacity and its quotas. The GCC country had been producing close to 30% below its capacity of 4.9 mn bbl/d. Iraq — one of Opec’s five founding members, in whose capital the organization was established in 1960 — would be a far more destabilizing exit.

How serious is Iraq? This is likely more of a pressure play ahead of the next ministerial meeting at Opec, not a genuine departure plan. But with production down nearly two-thirds since February, the leverage Opec holds over a fiscally strained member is eroding fast.

REMEMBER- We reported in May that Iraq's new PM faces a fiscal crisis with no easy exit — with the treasury drawing down reserves and the prospect of missing public-sector payroll within months. S&P expects Iraqi real GDP to shrink by more than 15% in 2026.


DATA POINT- Dubai home prices fell for a third straight month in May, but the correction may be losing momentum. The ValuStrat Price Index shows citywide values down 1.2% m-o-m — better than April's 1.9% and a long way off a 5.9% drop in March, with annual growth still positive at 2.5%. Supply-constrained villas are holding (older freehold prices remain 191% above post-pandemic levels), while prime apartment stock bleeds, with Burj Khalifa off 13.9% and JBR down 9.9% year-on-year. Apartments overall posted their first annual decline in six years.